Esnaider Vargas

SS DSL Nationals

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 162 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKWSH	104	.223/.284/.309	1	4	-6	—	.125/.176/.156
2026	18	ROKWSH	166	.301/.370/.466	3	16	47	—	.192/.247/.272
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLBWSH	276	.217/.272/.304	3	6	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBWSH	77	.220/.277/.313	1	2	68	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBWSH	170	.223/.282/.324	2	4	72	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed84

K%72

ISO71

Z-Con%71

Whiff%59

wOBA54

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGilberto Celestino (age 19) · Charlie Culberson (age 19) · Tito Polo (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 138 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .269 / .302

PA138

HR1

K%26

BB%6

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	166	146	44	11	2	3	16	28	0	16	4	301	370	466	836	164	345	17	10	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	125	176	156	333	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	151	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	192	247	272	518	79	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	125	176	156	333	31	176	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	151	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	192	247	272	518	79	233	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	166	146	44	11	2	3	16	28	0	16	4	301	370	466	836	164	345	17	10	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	124	176	155	331	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	154	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	188	247	266	513	78	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	124	176	155	331	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	154	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	188	247	266	513	78	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	276	255	55	10	2	3	17	71	2	6	1	217	272	304	576	88	287	26	6	260	62	-12	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	223	205	46	9	2	3	14	57	2	5	1	220	278	316	594	96	289	26	6	268	68	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	351	322	73	14	3	5	23	88	3	9	2	224	282	327	609	103	290	25	7	274	72	-12	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	443	406	92	17	3	7	30	110	4	11	3	226	286	335	621	109	291	25	7	279	75	-13	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	503	459	105	20	4	8	34	124	5	13	3	229	289	342	631	113	292	25	7	283	78	-13	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	543	496	114	21	4	10	37	133	5	14	3	230	292	348	639	117	293	24	7	287	80	-13	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	566	516	119	22	4	10	39	139	6	14	3	231	292	349	641	118	293	25	7	287	81	-13	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	578	527	122	23	4	11	40	142	6	14	3	231	292	349	641	119	292	25	7	287	81	-13	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	581	530	122	23	4	10	40	143	6	14	4	230	291	347	638	117	292	25	7	286	80	-14	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	579	529	121	23	4	10	40	144	5	13	3	228	289	342	631	114	291	25	7	283	78	-15	+1	-1	+6	+13	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	570	521	118	22	4	9	39	143	5	12	3	226	286	337	623	111	290	25	7	280	76	-17	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	560	512	115	21	4	9	38	143	5	11	4	223	283	329	612	106	289	26	7	276	73	-18	+1	-2	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	77	71	15	3	0	1	5	20	1	2	0	220	277	313	590	94	288	26	6	267	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	170	155	35	7	1	2	11	43	2	4	1	223	282	324	605	101	289	25	6	273	72	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	240	220	49	9	1	4	16	60	2	6	1	226	285	332	618	107	290	25	7	278	75	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	285	261	60	11	2	5	19	70	3	7	2	228	288	339	628	111	291	25	7	282	78	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	307	280	64	12	2	5	21	75	3	8	2	230	291	345	636	115	292	24	7	286	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	320	292	68	13	2	6	22	78	3	8	2	230	291	346	637	116	292	24	7	286	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	327	298	69	13	2	6	23	80	3	8	2	230	291	346	638	116	292	24	7	286	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	322	294	68	13	2	6	22	79	3	8	2	229	290	344	634	115	291	25	7	285	80	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	318	290	66	13	2	5	22	79	3	7	2	227	288	340	628	112	291	25	7	282	78	-8	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	305	278	63	12	2	5	21	77	3	7	2	225	286	334	620	109	289	25	7	279	76	-9	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	295	270	61	11	2	5	20	75	3	6	2	222	282	327	609	105	288	25	7	275	73	-10	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2966	2709	618	117	18	50	202	736	29	71	18	228	289	340	629	112	293	25	7	281	74	-80	+7	-2	+32	+64	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	136	26	4	11	44	161	6	16	4	229	289	342	631	113	293	25	7	281	74	-18	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5905	5397	1215	230	42	94	398	1466	55	153	38	225	285	336	621	110	289	25	7	278	74	-156	+13	-4	+60	+122	3.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	133	25	5	10	44	161	6	17	4	224	284	333	617	109	288	25	7	278	74	-18	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.7	3,102	51	74	228	285	341	+33	+21	4.2	3.9
/162	664	11	16	+7.1	+4.5	0.9	pk7: 4
#5Bill Cissell'28-'38 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,998 PA	6.0	3,998	29	113	240*	284*	363*	+27	+22	2.2	3.8
/162	664	5	19	+4.5	+3.7	0.4	pk7: 5
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esnaider Vargas (OGILVIE)	19	47→52	32→37	56→61	47	215/269/302	87	287	1	3	26%	6%	62	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→52	40	57→45	42	203/256/302	99	255	6	15	23%	5%	57	-1.8	219/288/315	96	285	8	12	24%	7%	72	-0.7	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Allen 2018 · A	19	43→53	37→40	49→50	42	205/255/273	69	279	4	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	210/260/281	71	273	2	14	22%	5%	53	-2.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Ryan Brett 2011 · A	19	47→57	37→45	54→60	42	219/270/295	76	299	3	17	26%	6%	60	-1.6	240/286/340	100	292	6	24	19%	6%	76	-0.4	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Maximo Acosta 2022 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	37	207/253/299	92	300	6	14	32%	5%	55	-2.0	222/272/317	95	292	8	24	26%	5%	66	-1.1	227/277/326	99	289	9	27	24%	5%	68	-0.8
✕Oswald Peraza 2019 · A	19	44→54	35→50	54→60	41	204/271/267	63	292	2	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	229/284/316	87	301	8	20	25%	6%	71	-0.8	235/294/370	135	296	16	30	26%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	41→51	42→40	56→55	40	200/253/311	111	279	8	14	30%	6%	58	-1.7	229/294/317	88	284	6	19	20%	7%	75	-0.5	243/314/319	76	293	5	22	18%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Kenneth Betancourt 2019 · A	19	44→51	35→30	54→50	44	205/251/270	65	258	2	15	21%	6%	47	-2.6	193/234/253	60	270	2	9	28%	5%	36	-3.3	239/279/298	59	308	3	9	23%	5%	61	-0.7
✕Matt Lipka 2011 · A	19	47→52	36→45	57→60	45	222/267/295	73	264	3	18	17%	5%	59	-1.7	222/265/286	64	282	3	17	21%	5%	56	-1.9	226/277/327	102	300	8	31	26%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Gregory Barrios 2023 · A	19	43→51	34→30	56→60	45	202/259/252	50	258	1	14	21%	6%	47	-2.6	210/254/267	57	258	2	25	18%	5%	47	-2.5	232/270/287	55	276	2	39	16%	4%	55	-1.3
✕Zac Law 2015 · A	19	44→45	36→40	54→50	41	207/259/280	72	274	3	9	24%	5%	53	-2.1	211/254/299	88	271	7	11	24%	4%	55	-1.9	210/260/283	73	275	5	12	24%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	44	38→45	50	46	210/269/292	82	266	4	13	22%	6%	59	-1.6	202/248/279	77	299	4	11	32%	5%	49	-2.4	176/218/244	68	280	3	12	36%	4%	25	-1.1
✕D.J. Burt 2016 · A	20	43→51	36→40	52→65	45	201/265/265	64	274	3	14	26%	7%	52	-2.2	212/272/277	65	302	3	22	28%	7%	57	-1.8	217/282/286	70	294	5	46	26%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Lorenzo Cedrola 2017 · A	19	47→57	36→45	52→50	44	219/279/289	70	258	3	14	16%	4%	63	-1.4	239/277/312	73	290	3	15	18%	3%	66	-1.1	257/302/356	100	301	7	16	17%	3%	83	+0.0
✕Dixon Machado 2011 · A	19	41→51	35→45	54→55	47	190/247/244	55	232	2	18	19%	7%	40	-3.0	202/258/245	43	256	2	15	20%	7%	45	-2.7	254/310/331	78	304	5	12	17%	7%	81	-0.1
✕C.J. McElroy 2012 · A	19	43→53	36→30	52→55	42	203/260/269	66	276	3	14	26%	6%	51	-2.3	218/259/268	50	284	1	17	22%	5%	49	-2.4	215/276/271	56	291	4	30	26%	5%	55	-1.0

Esnaider Vargas

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps