Alex Gonzalez

P DSL Astros Orange

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	14	7	34	5.24	4.59	18.0%	19.9%	—	K 12.2% · BB 24.8% · FIP 5.72
2026	20	ROKDSL Astros Or…	13	4	28	4.23	5.12	22.0%	22.8%	—	K 14.9% · BB 28.5% · FIP 6.69
2027PROJ	21	MLBHOU	17	0	18	6.01	6.01	19.1%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBHOU	15	0	16	5.59	5.42	20.7%	16.6%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNestor Lorant (age 21) · Radhames Liz (age 23) · Jordan Brink (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%19.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	14	7	34	161	29	32	1	50%	2.5	12.2%	24.8%	-12.6%	0.9%	5.24	5.72	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	14	7	34	161	29	32	1	50%	2.5	12.2%	24.8%	-12.6%	0.9%	5.24	5.72	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	14	7	34	161	29	32	1	50%	2.5	18.0%	19.9%	-1.9%	0.6%	5.24	4.59	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	4	28	123	27	28	2	31%	2.1	14.9%	28.5%	-13.5%	2.3%	4.23	6.69	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	4	28	123	27	28	2	31%	2.1	14.9%	28.5%	-13.5%	2.3%	4.23	6.69	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	4	28	123	27	28	2	31%	2.1	22.0%	22.8%	-0.8%	1.6%	4.23	5.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	HOU	17	0	18	76	15	15	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	20.0%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.01	6.01	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	31	0	32	137	28	23	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.9%	5.59	5.42	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	15	0	16	68	14	11	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.9%	5.59	5.42	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	14	11	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.9%	5.59	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	138	25	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.9%	5.59	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		27	11	62	284	38	75	4	41%	2.3	13.4%	26.4%	-13.0%	1.5%	4.79	6.14	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	35	200	916	123	242	14	41%	2.3	13.4%	26.4%	-13.0%	1.5%	4.79	6.14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	19.1%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.42	20.7%	4.1%	32	-0.59	—	—	—
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	84
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	84
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	83
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	82
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	81
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	81
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	79
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	79
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	78
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	78
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	78
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	78
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.1%	17.8%	1.12	5.74
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*