Alex Gonzalez
P
DSL Astros Blue
+0.1
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2030
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.5%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 14 | 7 | 34 | 161 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 12.2% | 24.8% | 1.0% | 5.24 | 5.75 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | HOU | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 7 | 34 | 161 | 20 | 40 | 2 | 12.2% | 24.8% | 1.0% | 5.24 | 5.75 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 41 | 200 | 938 | 117 | 233 | 12 | 12.2% | 24.8% | 1.0% | 5.24 | 5.75 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.7% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.83 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.48 | 2.50 | 103 | 91 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 90 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 89 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 89 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.49 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 101 | 89 |
| Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 89 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 88 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 88 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.20 | 104 | 88 |
| Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.99 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 135 | 88 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.15 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.17 | 3.98 | 198 | 88 |
| Mason Fox R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 88 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 87 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.76 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.89 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.13 | 4.76 | 134 | 87 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.71 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.77 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.06 | 3.71 | 181 | 87 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.12 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.11 | 3.32 | 206 | 87 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 87 |
| Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | .275 | 4.19 | 16.1% | 7.1% | 239 | -0.23 | 4.15 | 337 | 87 |
| Max Gieg R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.14 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .317 | 4.64 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.50 | 3.95 | 108 | 87 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||