Israel Paredes — OGILVIE

Israel Paredes P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	14	64	12	9	0	0%	1.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	2.63	4.25	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	14	64	12	9	0	0%	1.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	2.63	4.25	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	14	64	12	9	0	0%	1.7	18.8%	14.1%	4.7%	0.0%	2.63	3.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.22	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		8	0	14	64	8	11	0	0%	1.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	2.63	4.25	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	0	200	937	119	165	0	0%	1.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	2.63	4.25	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Israel Paredes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.2%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.60	22.7%	11.3%	20	-0.23	—	—	—
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	89
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	86
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	86
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	85
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	85
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	84
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Kendeglys Virguez R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	20	SU	4.45	22.5%	10.8%	3.4%	.260	4.10	23.8%	8.8%	41	-0.35	4.10	142	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	84
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	84
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	83
David Matoma R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	18	SU	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	1.7%	.259	5.70	15.7%	-5.9%	79	+1.89	3.58	118	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	83