Ernesto Meza

P DSL Braves

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 154 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKATL	10	1	24	3.75	5.31	11.3%	19.1%	—	K 7.7% · BB 23.9% · FIP 6.24
2026	19	ROKATL	14	1	25	5.04	4.46	20.8%	16.0%	—	K 14.1% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	20	MLBATL	14	0	15	5.90	5.90	18.6%	18.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBATL	11	0	12	5.54	5.41	19.9%	15.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsElison Joseph (age 20) · Over Galue (age 20) · Conor Grady (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%18.6%

BB%18.7%

K-BB%-0.1%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	1	24	115	13	22	1	10%	2.4	7.7%	23.9%	-16.2%	1.4%	3.75	6.24	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	1	24	115	13	22	1	10%	2.4	7.7%	23.9%	-16.2%	1.4%	3.75	6.24	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	1	24	115	13	22	1	10%	2.4	11.3%	19.1%	-7.8%	0.9%	3.75	5.31	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	14	1	25	125	26	20	2	7%	1.8	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	2.2%	5.04	5.67	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	14	1	25	125	26	20	2	7%	1.8	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	2.2%	5.04	5.67	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	14	1	25	125	26	20	2	7%	1.8	20.8%	16.0%	4.8%	1.6%	5.04	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ATL	14	0	15	63	12	12	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	18.7%	-0.1%	2.9%	5.90	5.90	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ATL	22	0	24	100	20	16	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.54	5.41	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ATL	11	0	12	51	10	8	1	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.54	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	10	8	1	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.54	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	138	17	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.54	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		24	2	49	240	27	52	4	8%	2.0	11.1%	21.9%	-10.8%	1.8%	4.41	5.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	8	200	980	108	214	18	8%	2.0	11.1%	21.9%	-10.8%	1.8%	4.41	5.94	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ernesto Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	18.6%	18.7%	2.9%	—	5.41	19.9%	4.0%	24	-0.49	—	—	—
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	88
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	86
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	85
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	85
Ryan Harbin R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	20	SU	5.47	14.4%	18.9%	2.2%	.317	4.18	24.0%	8.1%	156	-1.29	3.82	185	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	83
Ismael Aquino R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	20	SU	4.89	17.0%	16.5%	2.1%	.354	5.58	14.1%	-1.5%	14	+0.69	3.99	122	83
Daniel Lloyd R 2021 · 5.40 FIP	20	SU	5.40	20.4%	22.4%	2.2%	.367	4.15	18.0%	8.5%	226	-1.25	3.59	319	83
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	83
Angel Reyes R 2018 · 4.91 FIP	20	SU	4.91	16.5%	19.4%	1.4%	.328	4.51	17.1%	5.7%	119	-0.40	3.99	308	83
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	83
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	82
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	82
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	82
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	82
Luis Ramirez R 2022 · 4.92 FIP	20	SU	4.92	14.0%	16.5%	1.7%	.273	5.05	15.6%	-1.9%	68	+0.13	3.72	123	82
Jose G. Gonzalez R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	20	SU	5.86	13.8%	18.3%	2.9%	.357	4.91	14.6%	-1.0%	108	-0.95	3.63	165	82
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	81