Ty Harvey

C Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#803ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ASD	30	.174/.367/.174	0	0	22	—	.120/.267/.120
2026	20	A/ROK/INTL2 orgs	283	.238/.333/.357	5	18	54	—	.193/.260/.282
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBSD	345	.207/.273/.323	7	5	68	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSD	63	.209/.276/.334	1	1	74	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBSD	133	.213/.281/.347	3	2	78	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Z-Con%68

Speed56

BB%50

Whiff%47

ISO40

Chase%39

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsDeivy Grullón (age 21) · Kyle Higashioka (age 21) · Victor Bericoto (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 137 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .271 / .321

PA137

HR3

K%30

BB%8

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	23	4	0	0	0	7	12	0	0	0	174	367	174	541		364	40	23	283	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	197	170	37	8	1	3	24	56	0	9	1	218	314	329	644	112	298	28	12	292	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	38	33	14	3	0	2	4	9	0	0	0	424	486	697	1.183	273	522	24	11	499	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	48	41	7	1	0	0	7	17	0	9	0	171	292	195	487	24	292	35	15	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	25	3	0	0	0	5	17	0	0	0	120	267	120	387		354	57	17	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	197	177	31	6	1	2	17	76	0	9	1	175	247	254	502	79	274	39	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	38	35	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	286	324	429	753	143	404	34	5	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	25	3	0	0	0	5	17	0	0	0	120	267	120	387		375	57	17	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	23	4	0	0	0	7	12	0	0	0	174	367	174	541		364	40	23	283	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	283	255	49	10	1	4	24	107	0	18	1	192	262	286	548	94	304	38	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	283	244	58	12	1	5	35	82	0	18	1	238	333	357	690	119	329	29	12	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	25	3	0	0	0	5	17	0	0	0	120	267	120	387		354	57	17	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	283	257	49	10	1	4	24	107	0	18	1	191	262	284	546	93	295	38	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	30	25	3	0	0	0	5	17	0	0	0	120	267	120	387		354	57	17	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	283	257	49	10	1	4	24	107	0	18	1	191	262	284	546	93	295	38	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	345	314	65	12	2	7	26	102	2	5	1	207	273	323	597	116	280	30	8	269	68	-13	+1	-4	+6	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	184	167	35	6	1	4	14	54	1	2	1	212	279	338	617	126	282	29	8	277	74	-6	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	48%	275	249	54	9	2	7	22	79	2	3	1	216	284	350	634	134	283	29	8	284	78	-7	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	53%	352	319	69	12	2	9	28	99	2	4	1	220	288	360	648	140	285	28	8	289	82	-8	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	55%	392	355	79	14	2	11	31	109	3	4	1	222	290	367	658	145	286	28	8	294	85	-7	+0	-0	+7	+8	0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	416	377	84	15	2	12	33	115	3	5	1	224	292	373	665	149	286	28	8	296	87	-7	+1	-0	+7	+9	1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	425	385	85	15	2	12	34	118	3	4	1	223	291	370	661	147	285	28	8	295	86	-7	+0	-0	+8	+9	1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	425	385	85	15	2	12	34	119	3	4	1	221	289	365	654	144	284	28	8	292	84	-8	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	416	377	81	14	2	11	33	118	3	3	1	219	286	359	645	140	282	28	8	288	81	-9	+0	-2	+7	+9	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	53%	404	367	80	14	2	11	32	115	2	3	2	215	283	351	634	136	280	28	8	284	78	-10	-0	-2	+7	+9	0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	SD	52%	371	337	71	12	2	9	29	107	2	2	6	211	278	341	619	130	277	29	8	278	74	-11	-2	-3	+7	+8	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	63	58	11	2	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	209	276	334	611	125	277	29	8	275	74	-2	+0	-1	+1	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	48%	133	121	25	4	1	3	10	38	1	2	0	213	281	347	628	133	278	29	8	281	78	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	53%	186	168	36	6	1	5	15	52	1	2	1	217	285	357	641	140	280	28	8	287	82	-4	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	55%	215	194	42	7	1	6	17	60	2	2	1	219	288	364	652	145	280	28	8	291	85	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	232	209	46	8	1	7	19	64	2	3	1	221	290	369	659	148	280	28	8	294	87	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	234	211	47	8	1	7	19	65	2	2	1	220	289	367	655	147	280	28	8	292	86	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	232	209	46	8	1	7	19	65	2	2	1	218	287	362	648	144	279	28	8	290	84	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	222	201	43	7	1	6	18	63	1	2	1	216	284	355	639	140	277	28	8	286	81	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	53%	212	192	41	7	1	6	17	61	1	2	1	213	280	348	628	135	275	29	8	281	78	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	SD	52%	193	175	37	6	1	5	15	56	1	1	3	208	275	338	613	129	272	29	8	275	74	-6	-1	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1922	1738	374	63	9	53	154	542	13	19	10	215	284	353	637	138	279	28	8	287	79	-42	-0	-7	+34	+42	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	126	21	3	18	52	183	4	6	3	214	283	352	635	138	277	28	8	287	79	-14	-0	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4110	3723	802	141	21	105	329	1198	25	54	17	215	284	349	633	134	285	29	8	285	79	-86	+1	-15	+68	+82	5.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	127	22	3	17	52	189	4	9	3	216	284	350	634	134	284	29	8	285	79	-15	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 197 PAwOBA .289 → .228 (−61)K% 28.4% → 38.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.43%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.93%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.998	×1.030	20.74%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.998	×1.030	5.99%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.998	×1.030	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.17%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .289 → .228; ISO .112 → .086; BABIP .298 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 38 PAwOBA .498 → .357 (−141)K% 23.7% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.68%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	34.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	6.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	37.50%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	30.60%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	8.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	6.47%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .498 → .357; ISO .273 → .194; BABIP .522 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 30 PAwOBA .278 → .201 (−77)K% 40.0% → 56.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	56.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.33%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×1.045	17.67%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷0.989	×0.920	—	×1.045	35.35%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.062	×0.830	—	×1.045	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .278 → .201; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#2Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#3John Bateman'63-'72 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,585 PA	5.4	3,585	81	10	229*	274*	381*	+64	+0	8.2	8.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	+0.0	1.5	pk7: 9
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,059	55	21	219	284	359	+37	-5	4.7	4.4
/162	664	18	7	+11.9	-1.5	1.5	pk7: 4
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ty Harvey (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	205/271/321	115	280	3	2	30%	8%	68	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Deivy Grullón 2017 · A	21	44→45	42→55	38→30	37	215/257/318	103	300	10	2	31%	5%	61	-1.5	233/271/374	141	313	17	2	30%	5%	80	-0.2	236/277/397	161	310	22	0	31%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Kyle Higashioka 2011 · A	21	41→43	42→60	41→45	44	201/257/300	99	250	9	3	23%	6%	57	-1.8	198/245/316	118	243	13	4	24%	5%	57	-1.8	230/276/419	189	272	26	4	26%	6%	93	+0.4
✕Victor Bericoto 2023 · A	21	46→49	43→50	41→40	42	223/284/326	103	320	11	4	32%	8%	74	-0.6	230/278/363	133	307	16	4	29%	6%	80	-0.2	230/278/364	134	300	16	3	28%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Max Stassi 2012 · A	21	41→45	43→55	43→40	40	200/264/310	109	298	11	5	35%	7%	63	-1.4	225/277/371	146	299	17	4	30%	5%	82	-0.0	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	42→33	40→55	39→45	43	201/278/290	89	284	8	5	30%	7%	63	-1.3	198/277/316	118	286	12	5	33%	7%	70	-0.9	198/277/386	187	246	23	4	29%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Eric Wood 2014 · A	21	43→50	41→55	39→45	39	212/257/305	93	289	8	4	29%	5%	58	-1.7	219/273/314	95	305	6	5	28%	6%	66	-1.1	212/274/375	163	269	18	7	28%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Óscar Hernández 2015 · A	22	41	44→50	41→40	39	208/253/326	118	268	11	4	27%	5%	61	-1.5	199/247/315	116	260	12	5	27%	5%	57	-1.8	166/217/270	103	212	12	1	27%	5%	33	-1.2
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→47	40→50	43→40	38	184/237/271	87	270	8	6	34%	6%	43	-2.8	201/266/308	107	313	11	4	37%	7%	63	-1.4	212/290/364	152	313	17	3	35%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Agustín Ramírez 2022 · A	20	36→46	43→55	43→55	40	184/244/295	111	273	10	4	35%	7%	51	-2.2	225/286/365	140	284	15	12	25%	7%	84	+0.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→38	47→55	37→40	45	204/267/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	206/284/354	148	268	16	3	28%	9%	81	-0.1	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Alex Jackson 2017 · A	21	39→38	43→60	45→30	36	193/256/308	115	297	11	4	37%	6%	59	-1.6	196/254/351	155	291	19	2	38%	5%	70	-0.9	173/252/371	198	240	29	2	40%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	43→44	43→50	42→40	42	211/278/315	104	301	11	4	32%	7%	69	-0.9	213/278/334	121	292	14	4	30%	8%	74	-0.6	224/283/361	136	280	17	2	26%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Sebastian Valle 2011 · A	21	42→45	46→45	42→40	38	216/257/348	132	277	14	3	28%	4%	68	-1.0	214/242/326	112	298	12	2	31%	3%	57	-1.8	217/269/329	111	291	11	2	28%	6%	66	-0.6
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	37→42	46→55	44→50	48	186/273/317	131	265	13	8	33%	10%	68	-1.0	200/284/350	150	294	15	9	35%	9%	80	-0.2	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	43	203/264/334	131	264	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	213/268/317	104	301	10	5	31%	6%	65	-1.2	197/247/259	63	294	6	0	34%	6%	40	-0.9
✕Blake Ochoa 2008 · A	22	43	41→45	41→40	40	209/257/305	97	271	8	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	225/281/342	117	282	11	4	23%	7%	76	-0.4	229/292/365	137	275	15	2	22%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Niko Vasquez 2011 · A	22	42	41→50	40→45	48	202/284/306	104	289	8	3	31%	10%	70	-0.9	199/267/309	110	266	10	3	27%	8%	63	-1.3	220/276/351	131	285	16	6	28%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Michael Wing 2011 · A	22	47→50	43→55	40	42	229/278/345	116	297	9	4	26%	6%	75	-0.5	227/267/354	127	291	12	4	26%	4%	73	-0.6	236/277/390	154	296	17	3	26%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Jose Ramos 2022 · A	21	47→44	46→50	43→45	39	231/288/369	139	322	13	6	31%	6%	85	+0.2	206/273/349	143	316	17	5	38%	7%	76	-0.4	194/263/327	133	302	17	7	39%	8%	64	-1.0
✕Isan Díaz 2017 · A	21	43	47→55	45	43	212/278/355	143	302	14	8	33%	8%	78	-0.3	207/279/349	142	299	15	8	34%	8%	78	-0.3	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2

Ty Harvey

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps