Breyson Guedez

OF Stockton Ports

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2387ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKOAK	210	.359/.403/.490	2	5	66	—	.240/.277/.311
2026	18	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	590	.292/.338/.418	8	1	80	—	.266/.301/.376
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBOAK	635	.225/.261/.321	7	6	62	-0.6
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBOAK	173	.238/.277/.352	3	2	70	-0.4
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBOAK	260	.243/.285/.368	5	4	77	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Whiff%94

Z-Con%92

K%75

wOBA21

wRC+13

ISO13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 71%

CompsCal Mitchell (age 19) · Daryl Jones (age 19) · Danry Vasquez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .258 / .318

PA210

HR2

K%26

BB%4

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	210	192	69	15	2	2	14	20	0	5	1	359	403	490	892	130	385	10	7	389	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	134	123	33	3	0	2	4	26	4	0	0	268	311	341	652	73	320	19	3	292	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A	Stockton Ports	—	414	385	119	26	7	6	24	106	3	1	1	309	354	460	814	151	411	26	6	359	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	42	37	7	2	0	0	3	13	1	0	0	189	262	243	505	54	292	31	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	210	196	47	9	1	1	10	24	0	5	1	240	277	311	588	71	263	11	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	134	125	33	3	0	2	3	33	4	0	0	264	303	336	639	72	318	25	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	414	393	105	21	6	5	16	144	3	1	1	267	301	389	690	122	403	35	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	210	196	47	9	1	1	10	24	0	5	1	240	277	311	588	71	263	11	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	—	210	192	69	15	2	2	14	20	0	5	1	359	403	490	892	130	385	10	7	389	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	590	558	148	26	7	7	20	191	8	1	1	265	300	375	675	109	387	32	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A RAW	3 teams	—	590	545	159	31	7	8	31	145	8	1	1	292	338	418	756	127	381	25	5	335	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	210	198	47	9	1	1	10	24	0	5	1	237	277	308	585	71	263	11	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	590	557	148	26	7	7	20	191	8	1	1	266	300	375	676	110	382	32	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	210	198	47	9	1	1	10	24	0	5	1	237	277	308	585	71	263	11	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	590	557	148	26	7	7	20	191	8	1	1	266	300	375	676	110	382	32	3	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	635	602	135	25	5	7	22	168	6	6	2	225	261	321	582	96	297	26	3	259	62	-29	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	OAK	34%	504	473	110	20	4	8	20	130	6	7	2	231	270	340	610	109	299	26	4	272	70	-18	+1	-3	-3	+11	-1.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	OAK	48%	537	503	118	21	4	10	23	134	6	9	3	236	278	356	635	120	299	25	4	282	77	-15	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.8
2030	22	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	560	522	124	22	4	12	26	137	7	10	3	240	284	368	652	128	300	24	5	289	82	-12	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	578	538	130	23	5	13	28	139	7	10	3	242	288	375	663	133	300	24	5	294	85	-10	+1	-1	-3	+13	-0.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	590	548	134	24	5	14	30	141	7	10	3	244	292	380	672	137	300	24	5	298	88	-9	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	599	556	135	24	5	14	31	143	7	10	3	244	292	382	674	138	300	24	5	299	88	-8	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	OAK	56%	604	561	136	24	5	14	31	144	7	10	3	244	292	381	673	138	300	24	5	299	88	-8	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	OAK	55%	599	556	135	24	5	14	31	143	7	10	3	243	291	379	670	136	299	24	5	297	87	-9	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	OAK	55%	589	546	132	24	4	14	31	142	7	9	3	241	289	374	663	133	299	24	5	294	85	-10	+1	-1	-4	+13	-0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	568	528	126	22	4	13	29	139	6	7	3	238	286	368	654	129	297	24	5	291	83	-12	+0	-1	-3	+12	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	OAK	34%	173	162	40	8	2	3	7	44	2	2	1	238	277	352	628	114	309	25	4	279	70	-6	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.4
2029	21	MLB CTX	OAK	48%	260	244	60	12	2	5	11	65	3	4	1	243	285	368	653	125	309	25	4	289	77	-7	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.4
2030	22	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	304	283	70	14	3	6	14	74	4	5	2	246	291	379	670	133	309	24	5	297	82	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	327	304	76	15	3	7	16	79	4	6	2	249	295	386	681	138	310	24	5	301	85	-6	+0	-0	-2	+7	-0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	334	310	78	15	3	8	17	80	4	6	2	250	298	392	690	141	310	24	5	305	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	338	313	79	15	3	8	18	80	4	6	2	251	299	393	692	142	310	24	5	306	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	OAK	56%	341	316	79	15	3	8	18	81	4	6	2	250	299	392	691	142	310	24	5	306	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	OAK	55%	332	308	78	15	3	8	17	79	4	5	2	249	298	390	687	140	309	24	5	304	87	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.0
2036	28	MLB CTX	OAK	55%	323	299	74	14	3	7	17	78	4	5	2	247	295	385	681	138	308	24	5	301	85	-6	+0	-0	-2	+7	-0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	304	282	69	13	2	7	16	74	3	4	2	245	293	379	671	134	307	24	5	298	83	-6	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3036	2821	703	136	27	67	151	734	36	49	18	249	296	388	684	139	312	24	5	300	82	-57	+3	-5	-18	+66	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	150	29	6	14	32	157	8	10	4	248	295	386	681	137	311	24	5	300	82	-12	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6738	6284	1519	271	55	136	317	1662	77	100	32	242	286	367	654	126	306	25	5	290	82	-121	+7	-11	-36	+129	-3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	606	146	26	5	13	31	160	7	10	3	241	286	365	650	124	304	25	5	290	82	-13	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AStockton Ports · 414 PAwOBA .349 → .298 (−51)K% 25.6% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.60%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.31%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	3.83%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.59%
Singles /BIP	28.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	28.95%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.045	8.49%
Triples /BIP	2.51%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×1.045	2.51%
Home runs /BIP	2.15%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .349 → .298; ISO .151 → .123; BABIP .411 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 134 PAwOBA .288 → .267 (−21)K% 19.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.40%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.99%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	2.23%
HBP% /PA	2.99%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	2.48%
Singles /BIP	28.87%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.045	×1.050	29.15%
Doubles /BIP	3.09%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.045	×1.050	2.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.045	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.06%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.73%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .288 → .267; ISO .073 → .061; BABIP .320 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Athletics · 210 PAwOBA .386 → .266 (−120)K% 9.5% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.07%	÷0.994	×0.680	×1.029	×1.008	20.62%
Doubles /BIP	8.72%	÷1.013	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	5.36%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	1.16%	÷0.868	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.63%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .386 → .266; ISO .130 → .081; BABIP .385 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#4Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.9	3,247	70	51	241	283	370	-19	+1	0.9	1.3
/162	664	14	10	-4.0	+0.2	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Dan Meyer'74-'85 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,027 PA	6.1	4,027	86	61	249*	293*	406*	-51	-24	-2.3	0.2
/162	664	14	10	-8.5	-3.9	-0.4	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Breyson Guedez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	223/258/318	95	297	2	2	26%	4%	62	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cal Mitchell 2018 · A	19	41→51	38→50	42→50	43	196/257/277	81	269	5	5	28%	7%	52	-2.2	214/261/321	107	318	10	3	34%	5%	63	-1.3	236/294/376	140	302	15	12	26%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Daryl Jones 2006 · A	19	40→50	37→45	48→50	40	192/264/264	72	267	5	11	28%	5%	53	-2.1	212/278/306	94	284	8	13	27%	6%	67	-1.1	242/312/349	107	314	9	14	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Danry Vasquez 2013 · A	19	41→51	38→40	46→45	38	201/238/273	72	257	5	5	24%	4%	42	-2.9	242/282/334	92	295	6	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	243/287/338	95	286	7	14	17%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2015 · A	19	39→49	36→50	46→50	39	189/234/250	60	263	3	6	29%	5%	36	-3.3	227/283/347	120	309	12	9	29%	7%	78	-0.3	238/300/387	148	320	15	11	29%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Kyle Waldrop 2012 · A	20	40→50	41→50	47→50	33	198/228/308	109	286	6	5	33%	3%	47	-2.5	231/267/357	126	302	11	9	26%	4%	74	-0.6	243/281/377	134	311	13	11	26%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Dustin Fowler 2014 · A	19	40→50	37→55	52→55	36	194/229/276	82	272	2	7	29%	4%	40	-3.1	230/257/348	118	295	10	12	25%	3%	67	-1.1	258/283/412	154	310	13	21	21%	3%	89	+0.4
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2016 · A	19	42→45	39→50	51→50	40	204/257/286	82	281	6	6	29%	6%	54	-2.0	207/264/331	124	299	11	7	33%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/359	151	278	18	6	31%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Kevin Alcántara 2021 · A	19	42→52	37→50	48→50	37	201/248/278	78	286	4	8	30%	5%	48	-2.5	227/283/353	126	340	12	10	34%	7%	79	-0.2	232/296/372	139	341	17	12	35%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Joe Rizzo 2017 · A	19	46→50	38→50	47→40	41	217/267/297	80	311	6	5	31%	6%	59	-1.6	220/276/303	83	315	7	3	30%	7%	65	-1.2	235/283/369	133	291	16	2	25%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Michael Almanzar 2010 · A	19	40→50	39→45	43→45	34	198/239/281	83	286	7	4	33%	4%	46	-2.6	198/236/282	84	272	7	5	29%	4%	45	-2.7	243/289/370	127	299	13	8	23%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Austin Gallagher 2008 · A	19	45→49	40→45	45→30	43	218/264/306	88	274	7	4	23%	6%	61	-1.5	231/277/333	102	306	7	2	26%	6%	72	-0.7	234/298/360	125	291	13	1	23%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Gavin Conticello 2022 · A	19	47→50	37→45	48→50	38	216/279/292	76	320	4	8	32%	5%	64	-1.3	193/258/300	107	297	9	8	36%	7%	58	-1.7	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Matthew Sulentic 2007 · A	19	45→55	40→45	45→50	45	218/279/312	94	283	7	7	25%	7%	68	-1.0	222/270/317	95	300	8	9	27%	5%	65	-1.2	256/305/351	95	360	7	13	29%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	40→45	38→50	50→45	38	195/232/275	80	260	5	6	27%	4%	41	-3.0	188/231/283	95	306	9	5	40%	5%	43	-2.8	223/288/380	158	332	23	6	38%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2013 · A	19	40→50	37→45	39→50	42	194/239/265	71	248	4	5	23%	5%	41	-3.0	236/275/327	91	300	7	7	23%	5%	70	-0.9	247/287/347	101	294	10	10	19%	4%	77	-0.1
✕Chih-Hsien Chiang 2008 · A	20	47→55	40→50	47→40	38	226/263/328	102	297	6	4	26%	4%	65	-1.2	243/280/365	122	298	11	3	21%	4%	80	-0.1	252/294/400	148	299	12	4	19%	4%	91	+0.5
✕Blake Perkins 2016 · A	19	38→48	36→50	43→55	39	186/232/252	66	259	4	7	29%	5%	36	-3.4	206/267/282	76	290	5	13	29%	7%	57	-1.8	227/310/355	127	301	12	25	27%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Rio Ruiz 2013 · A	19	43→53	38→50	52→40	42	205/261/298	93	294	4	6	30%	7%	58	-1.7	232/297/350	118	303	9	5	24%	9%	83	+0.1	246/316/351	105	316	8	2	23%	9%	88	+0.4
✕José Tena 2021 · A	20	45→55	36→45	50→55	38	213/250/285	72	290	3	9	27%	4%	50	-2.3	233/274/354	121	341	11	9	33%	5%	76	-0.4	252/310/371	119	358	10	21	31%	7%	90	+0.5

Breyson Guedez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps