Jonathan Stevens

Jonathan Stevens P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%22.9%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	6	1	13	67	20	12	2	17%	2.2	22.1%	21.1%	1.0%	4.3%	6.92	6.28	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	6	1	13	67	20	12	2	17%	2.2	22.1%	21.1%	1.0%	4.3%	6.92	6.28	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	6	1	13	67	20	12	2	17%	2.2	29.9%	17.9%	11.9%	3.0%	6.92	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	29	1	52	263	51	38	8	3%	1.8	14.3%	17.0%	-2.7%	4.0%	7.05	6.22	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	29	1	52	263	51	38	8	3%	1.8	14.3%	17.0%	-2.7%	4.0%	7.05	6.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	29	1	52	263	51	38	8	3%	1.8	19.4%	14.4%	4.9%	3.0%	7.05	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	53	225	53	31	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	3.0%	5.00	4.89	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	54	230	56	29	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.64	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	55	233	57	27	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.48	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	55	233	58	26	7	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	26	15	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	3.0%	5.00	4.89	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	39	20	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.64	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	43	0	45	190	47	22	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.48	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	46	0	48	203	50	23	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	0	157	664	162	80	20	0%	1.0	24.4%	12.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.20	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	102	25	0%	1.1	24.4%	12.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		35	2	65	330	53	59	13	6%	1.9	15.9%	17.9%	-2.0%	4.0%	7.03	6.23	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	6	200	1010	161	181	41	6%	1.9	15.9%	17.9%	-2.0%	4.0%	7.03	6.23	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Stevens (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	22.9%	16.2%	3.0%	—	4.67	24.2%	11.6%	163	-0.60	—	—	—
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	91
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	87
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	84
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.54	22.4%	7.7%	110	-0.08	4.45	161	83
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Alex Pham R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	26.6%	14.5%	2.8%	.364	3.99	23.0%	12.4%	272	-0.24	3.73	349	82
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	82
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	45	24.3%	12.4%	1.15	4.73
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82