Anthony Astudillo

Anthony Astudillo P ACL Rangers

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	10.9%	11.2%	-0.2%	2.4%	4.85	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	10.9%	11.2%	-0.2%	2.4%	4.85	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	16.1%	8.9%	7.1%	1.8%	4.85	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	1.2%	2.93	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	1.2%	2.93	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	32.8%	6.9%	25.9%	1.1%	2.93	1.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	18	4	47	234	40	28	8	22%	2.6	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	3.3%	9.84	5.41	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	18	4	47	234	40	28	8	22%	2.6	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	3.3%	9.84	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TEX	14	2	33	170	32	17	4	14%	2.3	18.8%	10.0%	8.8%	2.4%	11.02	4.07	—
2026	21	A RAW	TEX	2	0	7	34	3	4	3	0%	3.5	8.8%	11.8%	-2.9%	8.8%	11.57	8.69	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	TEX	2	2	7	30	5	7	1	100%	3.5	16.7%	23.3%	-6.7%	3.3%	2.57	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	203	46	17	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.23	4.16	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	47	0	50	210	50	17	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.03	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	51	215	52	17	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.95	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	52	218	53	17	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	2.8%	3.96	3.90	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	52	218	54	16	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.5%	17.1%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	48	0	51	214	53	16	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.92	3.92	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	23	0	24	101	23	8	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.1%	4.35	4.28	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	36	12	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	3.0%	4.24	4.15	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	40	0	42	177	43	14	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	3.0%	4.15	4.07	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	44	0	46	194	48	15	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	3.0%	4.07	4.01	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	45	0	47	198	49	15	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.5%	17.1%	3.0%	4.02	3.99	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	45	0	47	198	49	15	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	3.0%	4.04	4.04	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	242	1022	247	79	31	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.7%	16.5%	3.0%	4.12	3.69	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	65	26	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.7%	16.5%	3.0%	4.12	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		33	18	106	479	78	52	11	55%	3.2	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	2.3%	6.22	4.38	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	34	200	907	148	98	21	55%	3.2	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	2.3%	6.22	4.38	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Astudillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	21.7%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.04	23.5%	15.6%	149	-0.31	—	—	—
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	86
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	86
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	383	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	82
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	82
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	82
Jeronimo Castro R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	25.2%	8.2%	2.6%	.362	3.85	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.40	3.19	158	81
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	81
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	80
Manuel Castro R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	21	SW	3.24	21.5%	7.5%	1.8%	.336	3.41	23.0%	13.1%	115	+0.17	2.21	210	80
Inohan Paniagua R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	21	SW	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.1%	.298	4.28	18.8%	8.2%	297	+0.60	3.68	473	80
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	23.8%	7.8%	1.09	4.06
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35