Anthony Astudillo

P ACL Rangers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1830ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Rangers B…	4	3	13	4.85	3.87	16.1%	8.9%	—	K 10.9% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.89
2025	20	ROKDSL Rangers R…	11	11	46	2.93	1.82	32.8%	6.9%	—	K 22.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 2.95
2026	21	MIX3 levels	18	4	47	9.84	5.41	17.1%	12.0%	—	K 12.8% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.41
2027PROJ	22	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.92	4.92	18.2%	10.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTEX	21	0	22	4.84	4.75	19.9%	9.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTEX	30	0	31	4.68	4.58	20.8%	9.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNoah Skirrow (age 23) · John Matthews (age 23) · Ryan Long (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%18.2%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	10.9%	11.2%	-0.2%	2.4%	4.85	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	10.9%	11.2%	-0.2%	2.4%	4.85	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	4	3	13	56	9	5	1	75%	3.2	16.1%	8.9%	7.1%	1.8%	4.85	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	1.2%	2.93	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	1.2%	2.93	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	46	189	62	13	2	100%	4.2	32.8%	6.9%	25.9%	1.1%	2.93	1.82	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	4	47	234	40	28	8	22%	2.6	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	3.3%	9.84	5.41	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	4	47	234	40	28	8	22%	2.6	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	3.3%	9.84	5.41	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	4	47	234	40	28	8	22%	2.6	17.1%	12.0%	5.1%	3.4%	9.84	5.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	10.7%	7.6%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	45	188	37	18	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.72	4.63	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	45	188	39	17	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.56	4.46	+0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	37	0	39	163	35	14	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	37	0	39	164	35	14	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	36	0	38	160	34	14	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	21	0	22	93	18	9	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.84	4.75	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	27	12	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.58	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	28	11	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.49	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	32	0	34	144	31	12	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.1%	4.50	4.46	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	32	0	34	144	31	13	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	3.2%	4.50	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	0	152	644	136	57	20	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.16	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	75	26	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		33	18	106	479	78	52	11	55%	3.2	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	2.3%	6.22	4.38	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	34	200	907	148	98	21	55%	3.2	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	2.3%	6.22	4.38	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Rangers · 33 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.41 (+1.34)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.82%	—	×0.680	12.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.250	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 7 IPFIP 8.69 → 10.60 (+1.91)K% 8.8% → 6.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.82%	—	×0.740	6.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.180	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	8.82%	÷1.000	×1.300	11.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.69 → 10.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 7 IPFIP 6.48 → 7.70 (+1.22)K% 16.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.770	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.33%	—	×1.150	26.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.48 → 7.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Rangers Red · 46 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.95 (+1.17)K% 32.8% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.80%	—	×0.680	22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.250	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.259	×1.400	1.18%

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Rangers Blue · 13 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.89 (+1.03)K% 16.1% → 10.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.07%	—	×0.680	10.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.250	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.059	×1.400	2.36%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Astudillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	18.2%	10.7%	3.0%	—	4.49	20.7%	11.5%	128	-0.43	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	87
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	87
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	86
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	85
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	85
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	83
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	82
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	82
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	82
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	82
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	82
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	42	20.5%	9.3%	1.13	4.58
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*