Raymel Belliard — OGILVIE

Raymel Belliard P DSL Padres Gold

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 36 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%15.4%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	4	0	3	19	4	4	0	0%	0.8	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	15.00	3.99	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	4	0	3	19	4	4	0	0%	0.8	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	15.00	3.99	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	4	0	3	19	4	4	0	0%	0.8	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	0.0%	15.00	4.43	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	175	35	19	0	100%	4.0	13.6%	13.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.67	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	175	35	19	0	100%	4.0	13.6%	13.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.67	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	175	35	19	0	100%	4.0	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	0.0%	2.45	2.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	7	7	36	152	23	23	4	100%	5.1	15.4%	15.0%	0.4%	2.9%	5.69	5.69	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	42	176	31	24	5	100%	5.2	17.4%	13.5%	3.9%	2.9%	5.40	5.30	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	20	84	15	11	2	100%	5.0	17.4%	13.5%	3.9%	2.9%	5.40	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	86	15	12	2	100%	5.1	17.4%	13.5%	3.9%	2.9%	5.40	4.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	147	117	20	100%	5.1	17.4%	13.5%	3.9%	2.9%	5.40	4.92	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		15	11	47	194	28	28	0	73%	3.1	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.26	3.70	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	47	200	826	118	118	0	73%	3.1	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.26	3.70	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raymel Belliard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	15.4%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.30	17.4%	3.9%	42	-0.39	—	—	—
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	87
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	86
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	81
Jean Marcelino R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	21	SP-	5.24	15.4%	13.4%	3.2%	.377	6.68	11.8%	-24.4%	12	+1.44	3.68	102	81
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	81
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	81
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	81
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	80
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	16.5%	14.2%	1.12	5.53
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51