Michael Watson
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%23.1%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.8% | 11.6% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.62 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 47.1% | 9.8% | 37.3% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 0.62 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 66 | 273 | 76 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 14.9% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.14 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 66 | 273 | 76 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.8% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 3.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 30 | 0 | 37 | 180 | 53 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 18.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.89 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 129 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 67 | 309 | 83 | 45 | 9 | — | — | 26.8% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 0 | 83 | 352 | 83 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.02 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 86 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 0 | 116 | 504 | 119 | 81 | 14 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.72 | 4.64 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 0 | 200 | 869 | 205 | 139 | 24 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.72 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.37 | 23.6% | 13.3% | 92 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 89 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 88 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 86 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 86 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 85 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 85 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.37 | 3.22 | 346 | 84 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 84 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 83 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 83 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.70 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.22 | 2.65 | 160 | 83 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 478 | 83 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 30 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 1.12 | 4.42 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |