Michael Watson
P
Springfield Cardinals
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 34.8% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.62 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 43 | 0 | 66 | 273 | 76 | 36 | 4 | 21.4% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 3.14 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 49 | 207 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 23.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | STL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 85 | 347 | 85 | 49 | 8 | 24.5% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 2.65 | 4.04 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 816 | 200 | 115 | 19 | 24.5% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 2.65 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.33 | 23.6% | 13.3% | 132 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 92 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 85 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .368 | 4.12 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.17 | 3.52 | 175 | 85 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 85 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.06 | 2.63 | 160 | 85 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 84 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .320 | 5.44 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.47 | 3.97 | 158 | 84 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 84 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 4.11 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.36 | 2.59 | 446 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 84 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 83 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 83 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 83 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||