Michael Watson — OGILVIE

Michael Watson P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%22.8%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	34.8%	11.6%	23.3%	0.0%	0.67	1.62	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	34.8%	11.6%	23.3%	0.0%	0.67	1.62	—
2024	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	47.1%	9.8%	37.3%	0.0%	0.67	0.62	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.4%	3.14	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.4%	3.14	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	27.8%	13.2%	14.7%	1.5%	3.14	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	45	0	52	238	70	36	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.86	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	45	0	52	238	70	36	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	STL	45	0	52	238	70	36	6	0%	1.1	29.4%	15.1%	14.3%	2.5%	4.70	3.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	57	0	60	254	59	31	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	57	0	60	254	60	31	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	25	0	26	110	26	14	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	38	0	40	169	40	20	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	67	281	66	34	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	102	24	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		99	0	131	562	133	86	14	0%	1.3	23.6%	15.4%	8.3%	2.4%	3.50	4.39	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	858	203	132	21	0%	1.3	23.6%	15.4%	8.3%	2.4%	3.50	4.39	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	22.8%	13.8%	2.8%	—	4.58	23.3%	11.1%	120	-0.24	—	—	—
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	90
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	89
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	88
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	88
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	88
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	88
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	87
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	87
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	86
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	85
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	24.7%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.49	19.7%	4.9%	59	-0.85	3.01	158	83
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	83
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	83
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	83
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	83
Hunter Cervenka L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	25.2%	14.7%	1.5%	.381	4.34	22.0%	10.0%	109	+0.71	3.08	194	82
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Jeff Singer L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	21.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.266	2.93	24.3%	14.2%	115	-0.71	2.92	292	81
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.41	21.4%	10.9%	163	-0.30	3.96	265	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	23.2%	12.5%	1.08	4.67
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99