Alvaro Carrillo — OGILVIE

Alvaro Carrillo P DSL Mets Orange

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%21.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	7	0	9	42	8	9	0	0%	1.2	19.0%	21.4%	-2.4%	0.0%	2.08	4.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	7	0	9	42	8	9	0	0%	1.2	19.0%	21.4%	-2.4%	0.0%	2.08	4.21	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	7	0	9	42	8	9	0	0%	1.2	19.0%	21.4%	-2.4%	0.0%	2.08	4.37	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	4	33	153	33	36	1	29%	2.3	14.7%	29.4%	-14.7%	1.0%	4.96	6.16	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	4	33	153	33	36	1	29%	2.3	14.7%	29.4%	-14.7%	1.0%	4.96	6.16	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	14	4	33	153	33	36	1	29%	2.3	21.6%	23.5%	-2.0%	0.7%	4.96	4.78	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	0	22	103	33	22	0	0%	1.5	21.8%	26.7%	-4.9%	0.0%	2.49	4.64	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	0	22	103	33	22	0	0%	1.5	21.8%	26.7%	-4.9%	0.0%	2.49	4.64	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	14	0	22	103	33	22	0	0%	1.5	32.0%	21.4%	10.7%	0.0%	2.49	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	—	14	0	15	63	14	13	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	20.0%	1.5%	2.9%	5.78	5.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	—	29	0	30	129	29	22	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.42	5.27	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	—	14	0	15	63	14	11	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.42	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	11	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.42	4.89	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	147	27	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.42	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		35	4	63	298	53	82	2	11%	1.8	17.7%	27.3%	-9.6%	0.5%	3.71	5.36	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	13	200	946	168	259	5	11%	1.8	17.7%	27.3%	-9.6%	0.5%	3.71	5.36	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvaro Carrillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	21.5%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.27	22.4%	5.6%	30	-0.51	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	89
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	87
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	85
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	85
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	84
Yoel Espinal R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	21.0%	21.4%	1.1%	.284	4.52	22.9%	5.6%	157	-0.11	3.86	231	84
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	84
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83