Ryan Minckler
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 167157vR 148
ERA6.62
FIP6.62
K%17.7%
BB%24.5%
K-BB%-6.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 39 | 0 | 49 | 230 | 56 | 51 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 26.2% | -8.1% | 1.0% | 4.74 | 5.47 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 39 | 0 | 49 | 230 | 56 | 51 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 22.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 4.74 | 4.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 19 | 0 | 32 | 145 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.8% | 25.2% | -8.4% | 1.8% | 5.12 | 5.86 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 39 | 54 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 24.5% | -6.9% | 2.8% | 6.62 | 6.62 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.7% | 24.5% | -6.9% | 2.8% | 6.62 | 6.62 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 84 | 366 | 72 | 85 | 8 | — | — | 19.7% | 23.3% | -3.6% | 2.2% | 6.05 | 6.33 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 43 | 48 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 21.0% | -2.2% | 2.8% | 6.19 | 6.07 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 45 | 43 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 18.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.85 | 5.72 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 46 | 42 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.69 | 5.63 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 21.0% | -2.2% | 2.8% | 6.19 | 6.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 18.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.85 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.69 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 84 | 82 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 19.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 5.38 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 161 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 19.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 5.38 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 81 | 375 | 66 | 97 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 25.8% | -8.2% | 1.3% | 4.89 | 5.62 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 0 | 200 | 926 | 163 | 239 | 12 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 25.8% | -8.2% | 1.3% | 4.89 | 5.62 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Minckler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.62 | 17.7% | 24.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.81 | 19.4% | 0.1% | 162 | -0.81 | — | — | — |
| Luis Germán R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.67 | 16.0% | 19.6% | 2.6% | .305 | 8.13 | 12.2% | -10.4% | 19 | +2.46 | 5.21 | 115 | 90 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.68 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 3.3% | .303 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 49 | -1.41 | 3.01 | 135 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 87 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
| Alec Kenilvort R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.05 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 85 | -2.10 | 2.89 | 109 | 84 |
| Samuel Carpio R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.99 | 20.2% | 27.1% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 112 | 84 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2028 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 84 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 6.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.54 | 14.0% | 23.6% | 3.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 147 | 83 |
| Luis Ledo R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.45 | 17.1% | 17.6% | 2.9% | .329 | 3.60 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 85 | -1.85 | 3.22 | 376 | 83 |
| Noah Takacs R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.19 | 14.5% | 17.0% | 3.9% | .248 | 5.15 | 12.7% | -2.0% | 33 | -1.04 | 5.15 | 122 | 83 |
| Joseph Yabbour R 2025 · 6.58 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.58 | 20.2% | 24.2% | 3.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 105 | 83 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 83 |
| Cody Adcock R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 18.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.69 | 25.7% | 3.9% | 26 | -1.85 | 3.34 | 139 | 82 |
| Richard Fernandez R 2026 · 6.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.08 | 17.0% | 21.0% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 136 | 82 |
| Jake Gozzo R 2027 · 7.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 7.15 | 14.3% | 30.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 5.29 | 15.8% | -0.7% | 129 | -1.86 | 4.29 | 162 | 82 |
| Luis De La Cruz R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.65 | 20.6% | 23.1% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 139 | 82 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 82 |
| Jack Hartman R 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.65 | 15.1% | 20.3% | 2.3% | .357 | 4.02 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 143 | -1.63 | 3.42 | 161 | 82 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 81 |
| Angel Perez R 2025 · 6.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.98 | 17.7% | 23.6% | 4.3% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 114 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 19.0% | 20.5% | 1.07 | 6.08 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |