Ryan Minckler — OGILVIE

Ryan Minckler P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 167159vR 151

ERA7.05

FIP7.05

K%17.7%

BB%27.9%

K-BB%-10.2%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	18.0%	26.2%	-8.1%	1.1%	4.74	5.49	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	18.0%	26.2%	-8.1%	1.1%	4.74	5.49	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	24.3%	22.2%	2.2%	0.9%	4.74	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	26.4%	-9.8%	2.2%	6.99	6.24	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	26.4%	-9.8%	2.2%	6.99	6.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	WSH	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	22.3%	22.3%	0.0%	1.7%	6.99	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	51	0	54	227	43	53	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	23.5%	-4.7%	2.8%	6.54	6.39	-1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	54	230	45	47	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	20.6%	-1.1%	2.8%	6.13	5.96	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	22	0	23	97	18	23	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	23.5%	-4.7%	2.8%	6.54	6.39	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	30	31	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	20.6%	-1.1%	2.8%	6.13	5.96	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	48	54	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	21.7%	-2.5%	2.8%	6.29	5.75	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	183	24	0%	1.1	19.2%	21.7%	-2.5%	2.8%	6.29	5.75	-2.8
Career	—	MLE		63	0	87	409	71	107	6	0%	1.4	17.4%	26.3%	-8.9%	1.6%	5.71	5.82	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	944	164	248	15	0%	1.4	17.4%	26.3%	-8.9%	1.6%	5.71	5.82	-3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Minckler (OGILVIE)	—	—	7.05	17.7%	27.9%	2.8%	—	6.17	19.1%	-2.9%	108	-0.88	—	—	—
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	81
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	81
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.8%	9.6%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	81
Edgar Navarro R 2021 · 6.23 FIP	23	SU	6.23	13.3%	17.7%	3.7%	.297	4.20	18.7%	2.1%	87	-2.03	3.30	244	80
Dallas Woolfolk R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	24	SU	6.62	12.9%	21.9%	3.3%	.324	5.12	14.0%	0.7%	50	-1.50	5.12	100	79
Michael Brewer R 2023 · 6.19 FIP	22	SU	6.19	15.8%	15.8%	4.4%	.295	4.71	23.3%	7.1%	30	-1.48	3.14	144	79
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	77
Juan Manuel Abril R 2021 · 5.92 FIP	23	SU	5.92	20.1%	26.8%	2.1%	.221	6.15	15.4%	-6.9%	22	+0.23	3.23	133	77
Ramon Sanchez R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	21	SU	6.06	14.8%	23.6%	2.2%	.200	5.00	16.9%	-6.3%	70	-1.06	3.36	103	76
Yunior Thibo R 2021 · 6.35 FIP	23	SU	6.35	11.5%	15.8%	4.0%	.312	4.82	15.6%	-1.0%	95	-1.53	4.42	110	76
Rael Santos R 2022 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	17.1%	32.7%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	76
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	76
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2021 · 7.19 FIP	23	SU	7.19	15.8%	18.4%	5.6%	.288	3.64	24.6%	11.2%	158	-3.55	2.58	233	76
Mark Adamiak R 2023 · 6.87 FIP	22	SU	6.87	14.4%	20.8%	4.3%	.410	4.20	18.2%	8.2%	110	-2.67	3.83	122	75
Joel Benitez R 2022 · 6.28 FIP	22	SU	6.28	18.0%	19.1%	4.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	101	75
Nick Howard R 2016 · 6.55 FIP	23	SU	6.55	13.8%	31.8%	1.1%	.317	5.19	12.6%	-1.5%	53	-1.36	4.72	181	75
Elvis Jerez R 2023 · 7.31 FIP	23	SU	7.31	16.2%	25.3%	4.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	109	75
Yennier Cano R 2019 · 5.94 FIP	25	SU	5.94	17.6%	20.2%	3.2%	.219	3.89	23.6%	12.1%	128	-2.05	2.43	377	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.7%	23.9%	1.07	6.57
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99