Matt Tiberia

P Modesto Nuts

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 192 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AModesto Nuts	10	10	44	2.27	2.50	22.5%	10.1%	—	K 16.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.21
2027PROJ	25	MLB—	10	10	60	5.23	5.23	16.8%	12.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLB—	4	4	25	5.12	5.11	17.8%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLB—	6	6	37	5.07	5.09	18.2%	12.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command40

CompsChris Kachmar (age 24) · Dylan Burns (age 25) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%16.8%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%4.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	—
2025	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	—
2025	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	0.0%	2.27	2.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	—	10	10	60	253	43	32	7	100%	6.0	16.8%	12.6%	4.2%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	—	10	10	60	251	45	31	7	100%	6.0	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	2.9%	5.12	5.11	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	—	10	10	59	247	45	30	7	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	2.9%	5.07	5.09	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	—	9	9	57	240	44	29	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.13	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	—	4	4	25	106	19	13	3	100%	6.2	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	2.9%	5.12	5.11	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	—	6	6	37	156	28	19	5	100%	6.2	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	2.9%	5.07	5.09	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	—	7	7	43	182	33	22	6	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	105	443	80	54	13	100%	6.2	18.1%	12.1%	6.0%	3.0%	5.09	4.73	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	103	25	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.1%	6.0%	3.0%	5.09	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		10	10	44	178	30	21	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	46	200	815	136	97	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Tiberia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	16.8%	12.6%	2.9%	—	5.11	18.1%	5.9%	175	-0.12	—	—	—
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	89
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	85
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	85
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	84
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	83
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	81
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	81
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	80
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	80
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	80
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.31	14.4%	6.0%	217	-0.28	3.80	399	80
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	80
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	80
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	80
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	59	17.8%	12.3%	1.13	5.13
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*