Ethan Dorchies

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #888MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP48ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	MIX2 levels	19	11	82	2.74	2.84	26.7%	10.5%	—	K 19.2% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.78
2026	19	A+MIL	25	25	113	5.26	4.34	19.6%	9.5%	—	K 15.1% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIL	26	26	133	5.23	5.23	16.7%	11.5%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIL	14	14	69	5.08	5.00	18.6%	10.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIL	21	21	107	4.83	4.70	20.4%	9.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$7M2034Arb-3$10M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control53Command45FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 81%

CompsAdam Hill (age 22) · Trevor Clifton (age 20) · Josh Grosz (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%16.7%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP133

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL5555

CMD2045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$10M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.2M
Totals		$25M		$23M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	1.3%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	1.3%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	26.7%	10.5%	16.2%	1.2%	2.74	2.84	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.26	5.21	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.26	5.21	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	2.9%	5.26	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	26	26	133	562	94	65	17	100%	5.1	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.1%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	140	590	110	62	18	100%	5.2	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	4.92	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	147	619	127	60	18	100%	5.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.62	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	152	643	139	60	19	100%	5.4	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.44	+0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	156	659	147	59	19	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.42	4.33	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	158	667	151	59	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+1.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	158	667	153	59	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	156	657	150	59	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	151	637	145	58	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.37	+0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	144	608	137	57	19	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	3.2%	4.44	4.50	+0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	135	572	127	55	19	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.68	+0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	126	533	116	53	19	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.6%	4.77	4.88	+0.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	117	493	105	51	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	69	291	54	31	9	100%	4.9	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	3.2%	5.08	5.00	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	107	452	92	44	14	100%	5.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.83	4.70	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	128	540	117	50	17	100%	5.3	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	3.1%	4.64	4.52	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	139	587	131	53	18	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.41	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	145	612	139	54	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.41	4.35	+1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	147	621	142	55	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.33	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	148	625	143	56	19	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.37	+1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	143	604	137	55	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.45	+0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	137	578	130	54	19	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	3.3%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	121	52	19	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.77	+0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	120	507	110	50	19	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.8%	4.87	4.98	+0.0
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	111	469	100	49	19	100%	6.2	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	4.1%	5.08	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	264	1523	6431	1417	603	211	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.4%	12.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.23	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	186	79	28	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.4%	12.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		44	36	195	848	142	98	23	82%	4.4	16.7%	11.6%	5.1%	2.7%	4.20	4.65	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	870	145	101	24	82%	4.4	16.7%	11.6%	5.1%	2.7%	4.20	4.65	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Dorchies (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	16.7%	11.5%	3.1%	—	4.65	20.3%	10.4%	439	-0.58	—	—	—
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	89
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	85
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	84
Nick Pivetta R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	14.6%	11.6%	2.7%	.288	3.74	23.5%	15.3%	478	-1.09	2.06	1,597	83
Adrian Houser R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.90	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.45	1,221	83
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	83
Brad Penny R 2000 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP	4.51	15.1%	10.6%	2.5%	.282	3.78	17.4%	10.9%	531	-0.73	3.28	2,060	83
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	83
David Palladino R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	82
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	82
Victor Alcántara R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	15.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.337	4.10	16.3%	5.6%	267	-0.30	3.50	464	82
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	82
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	144	21.5%	9.6%	1.20	4.59
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Steve Renko ('69-'83, 22 WAR*)	12.5	166	19.9%*	9.2%*	1.29*	4.37*
Kevin Gross ('83-'97, 21 WAR*)	12.4	166	20.4%*	9.0%*	1.11*	4.48*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Yovani Gallardo ('18)	9.1	151	20.3%	9.1%	1.02	4.06