Victor Zarraga

P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 23 LHP 5'10" / 160 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	5	43	3.59	2.68	27.6%	15.3%	—	K 19.2% · BB 18.7% · FIP 3.85
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	5	53	5.81	4.58	18.3%	19.1%	—	K 13.1% · BB 23.7% · FIP 5.66
2027PROJ	23	MLBCHC	25	0	26	6.06	6.06	17.1%	20.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCHC	20	0	21	5.66	5.51	18.9%	16.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCHC	31	0	33	5.32	5.16	19.9%	14.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColby Langford (age 22) · Evan Shawver (age 23) · Nicolo Pinazzi (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132140vR 148

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%17.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-2.9%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	19.2%	18.7%	0.5%	0.0%	3.59	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	19.2%	18.7%	0.5%	0.0%	3.59	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	27.6%	15.3%	12.2%	0.0%	3.59	2.68	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	5	53	251	46	48	2	23%	2.4	13.1%	23.7%	-10.6%	1.2%	5.81	5.66	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	5	53	251	46	48	2	23%	2.4	13.1%	23.7%	-10.6%	1.2%	5.81	5.66	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	5	53	251	46	48	2	23%	2.4	18.3%	19.1%	-0.8%	0.8%	5.81	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CHC	25	0	26	110	19	22	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	20.0%	-2.9%	2.7%	6.06	6.06	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	49	205	39	35	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	16.8%	2.0%	2.7%	5.66	5.51	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	47	0	49	208	41	31	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.7%	5.2%	2.7%	5.32	5.16	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	20	0	21	89	17	15	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	16.8%	2.0%	2.7%	5.66	5.51	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	31	0	33	139	28	21	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.7%	5.2%	2.7%	5.32	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	53	225	44	35	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.7%	5.45	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	131	22	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.7%	5.45	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		38	10	95	447	71	96	3	26%	2.5	15.8%	21.5%	-5.7%	0.7%	4.81	4.86	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	21	200	938	148	202	6	26%	2.5	15.8%	21.5%	-5.7%	0.7%	4.81	4.86	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Zarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	17.1%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.33	19.4%	3.6%	98	-0.73	—	—	—
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	81
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	81
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	77
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Randy Keisler L 2000 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	11.5%	15.4%	1.9%	.405	6.43	15.3%	0.9%	51	+1.30	5.07	135	76
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	76
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	76
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	75
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	75
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	74
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	74
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	73
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	73
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	72
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	72
Jacob Kroeger L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	24	SU	5.71	20.1%	34.0%	0.0%	.346	4.20	19.1%	6.7%	141	-1.51	3.94	154	72
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	72
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	71
Justin Kelly L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	23	SU	4.96	13.4%	12.7%	2.5%	.421	3.71	19.4%	4.6%	123	-1.25	3.51	160	71
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	18.9%	16.6%	1.05	5.61
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*