Holden Wilkerson

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	14	8	51	6.35	3.81	20.3%	7.6%	—	K 14.4% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.58
2026	23	A+TOR	25	8	100	5.31	3.92	21.0%	10.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	56	0	59	5.08	5.08	17.0%	11.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTOR	37	0	39	4.90	4.83	18.5%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTOR	58	0	61	4.78	4.73	19.4%	10.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMatt Marsh (age 24) · Danny Kirwin (age 24) · Cooper Chandler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%17.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	14.4%	9.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.35	4.58	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	14.4%	9.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.35	4.58	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	2.5%	6.35	3.81	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	16.2%	11.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.31	4.80	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	16.2%	11.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.31	4.80	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.3%	5.31	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	56	0	59	249	42	28	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.9%	5.08	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	87	0	91	385	71	40	11	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	4.83	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	87	0	91	385	74	39	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.73	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	85	0	90	379	74	38	11	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	83	0	87	367	71	37	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.79	4.82	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	79	0	83	351	67	36	11	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	74	0	78	330	69	32	11	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.4%	4.87	4.86	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	30	17	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	4.83	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	50	26	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.73	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	66	0	69	291	57	29	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	70	0	73	308	60	31	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.79	4.82	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	70	0	73	308	59	32	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	67	0	70	296	62	29	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.4%	4.87	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	318	164	51	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.45	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	85	26	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		39	16	151	680	106	74	19	41%	3.9	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.66	4.72	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	21	200	901	140	99	25	41%	3.9	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.66	4.72	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holden Wilkerson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	17.0%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.77	19.1%	9.0%	272	-0.31	—	—	—
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	89
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	81
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	81
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	79
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	79
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	78
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	78
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	78
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	78
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	78
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	19.2%	10.2%	1.19	4.85
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Allyn Stout ('31-'43, -2 WAR*)	2.3	92	21.1%*	10.6%*	1.20*	5.00*
Al Cicotte ('57-'62, -0 WAR*)	1.3	65	19.6%*	10.1%*	1.26*	4.68*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83