Rafael Arias

P FCL Yankees

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	13	15	1.80	2.17	33.9%	8.1%	—	K 23.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.18
2025	21	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	20	40	4.05	1.65	29.8%	9.0%	—	K 20.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 2.81
2026	22	MIX2 levels	26	38	6.34	5.08	28.5%	11.0%	—	K 20.1% · BB 13.6% · FIP 7.12
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	50	52	5.02	5.02	21.1%	12.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYY	22	23	4.84	4.77	21.9%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYY	34	36	4.69	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMax Alba (age 24) · Harrison Cohen (age 24) · Bailey Dees (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%21.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	1.4%	1.80	3.18	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	1.4%	1.80	3.18	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	33.9%	8.1%	25.8%	1.6%	1.80	2.17	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	0.0%	4.05	2.81	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	0.0%	4.05	2.81	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	29.8%	9.0%	20.8%	0.0%	4.05	1.65	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	38	172	49	19	9	0%	1.5	20.1%	13.6%	6.4%	7.3%	6.34	7.12	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	38	172	49	19	9	0%	1.5	20.1%	13.6%	6.4%	7.3%	6.34	7.12	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	38	172	49	19	9	0%	1.5	28.5%	11.0%	17.4%	5.2%	6.34	5.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	50	0	52	220	46	28	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	3.1%	5.02	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	51	0	54	227	50	26	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.1%	4.84	4.77	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	54	230	51	25	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	22	0	23	97	21	11	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.1%	4.84	4.77	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	34	0	36	152	34	16	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	55	27	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.75	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	92	27	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.75	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		59	0	93	412	85	50	13	0%	1.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	883	182	107	29	0%	1.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	21.1%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.69	22.1%	11.0%	108	-0.33	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	94
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	93
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.4%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	91
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	91
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	91
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	90
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	90
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	90
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	89
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	89
Kelvin Ramirez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	20.4%	11.5%	3.1%	.307	4.48	22.8%	5.4%	114	-0.08	3.36	244	89
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Ralston Cash R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	19.4%	11.8%	3.5%	.240	3.89	23.0%	11.0%	185	-0.96	3.02	242	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	21.8%	11.6%	1.19	4.85
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*