Alex Bouchard

P Greenville Drive

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	10	8	23	5.16	5.04	14.9%	22.8%	—	K 8.9% · BB 25.6% · FIP 5.59
2026	22	MIX2 levels	20	14	73	5.18	5.10	22.0%	12.3%	—	K 17.5% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.93
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	6	6	34	5.64	5.64	18.2%	15.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBOS	5	5	29	5.35	5.24	19.7%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBBOS	8	8	45	5.11	5.00	20.5%	12.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%18.2%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	8.9%	25.6%	-16.7%	0.0%	5.16	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	8.9%	25.6%	-16.7%	0.0%	5.16	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	14.9%	22.8%	-7.9%	0.0%	5.16	5.04	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	73	318	70	39	13	70%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	5.18	5.93	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	73	318	70	39	13	70%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	5.18	5.93	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	73	318	70	39	13	70%	3.6	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	4.1%	5.18	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	6	6	34	144	26	22	5	100%	5.7	18.2%	15.2%	2.9%	3.2%	5.64	5.64	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	67	284	56	38	9	100%	5.6	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	3.2%	5.35	5.24	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	68	288	59	35	9	100%	5.7	20.5%	12.1%	8.5%	3.1%	5.11	5.00	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	68	288	60	34	9	100%	6.2	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.94	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	67	283	59	34	9	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.96	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	65	275	57	33	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	263	54	32	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.4%	5.11	5.18	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	5	5	29	122	24	16	4	100%	5.8	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	3.2%	5.35	5.24	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	45	190	39	23	6	100%	5.6	20.5%	12.1%	8.5%	3.1%	5.11	5.00	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	48	27	7	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.94	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	50	29	8	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.96	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	51	29	8	100%	5.8	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	50	30	8	100%	5.7	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.4%	5.11	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	300	1266	262	154	41	100%	5.9	20.7%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	5.07	4.67	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	103	27	100%	5.9	20.7%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	5.07	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		30	22	96	432	66	76	14	73%	3.2	15.3%	17.6%	-2.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.84	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	46	200	903	138	159	30	73%	3.2	15.3%	17.6%	-2.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.84	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Bouchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	18.2%	15.2%	3.2%	—	5.06	20.4%	8.0%	204	-0.58	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	82
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	81
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	80
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	80
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	20.4%	12.5%	1.25	5.14
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*