Alex Bouchard — OGILVIE

Alex Bouchard P Greenville Drive

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%17.6%

BB%19.6%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	8.9%	25.6%	-16.7%	0.0%	5.16	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	8.9%	25.6%	-16.7%	0.0%	5.16	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	23	114	17	26	0	80%	2.3	14.9%	22.8%	-7.9%	0.0%	5.16	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	14	73	318	70	39	13	70%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	5.18	5.93	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	14	73	318	70	39	13	70%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	5.18	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	BOS	18	12	65	281	64	36	10	67%	3.6	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	3.6%	4.57	4.75	—
2026	22	AA RAW	BOS	2	2	8	37	6	3	3	100%	4.0	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	10.12	7.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	74	313	61	52	9	100%	5.3	19.4%	16.4%	3.0%	2.8%	5.64	5.48	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	76	321	66	46	9	100%	5.4	20.5%	14.3%	6.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.11	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	326	69	42	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	13.0%	8.1%	2.8%	5.03	4.88	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	326	70	42	9	100%	5.9	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.85	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	320	68	41	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.9%	8.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.89	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	311	66	41	9	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.97	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	297	62	39	9	100%	5.9	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	3.1%	5.04	5.10	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	279	58	38	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	13.6%	7.1%	3.3%	5.18	5.28	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	37	156	30	26	4	100%	5.3	19.4%	16.4%	3.0%	2.8%	5.60	5.44	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	46	32	6	100%	5.9	20.5%	14.3%	6.2%	2.7%	5.25	5.07	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	63	266	56	34	7	100%	5.7	21.1%	13.0%	8.1%	2.7%	4.99	4.84	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	67	283	60	36	8	100%	6.1	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.7%	4.88	4.81	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	62	38	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.9%	8.4%	2.8%	4.86	4.85	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	61	37	8	100%	6.2	21.2%	13.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	4.93	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	58	36	8	100%	5.9	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	3.0%	5.00	5.06	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	54	36	8	100%	6.2	20.6%	13.6%	7.1%	3.2%	5.13	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	484	2041	427	275	59	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.04	4.62	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	114	24	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.04	4.62	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		30	22	96	432	66	76	14	73%	3.2	15.3%	17.6%	-2.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.84	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	46	200	903	138	159	30	73%	3.2	15.3%	17.6%	-2.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.84	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Bouchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	17.6%	19.6%	2.9%	—	5.15	20.4%	5.8%	227	-0.90	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	87
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	84
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	83
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	79
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	79
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	77
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	76
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	76
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	75
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	74
Landon Leach R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP-	4.89	14.1%	19.1%	1.0%	.264	4.94	14.6%	1.2%	53	+0.05	3.72	116	74
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	74
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	74
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	20.8%	13.8%	1.13	5.13
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77