Hector Salas
SS Fayetteville Woodpeckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROKDSL Astros Bl… | 175 | .271/.410/.386 | 1 | 18 | 47 | — | .161/.277/.215 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/A/ROKHOU | 303 | .252/.378/.321 | 1 | 15 | 57 | — | .213/.300/.266 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+/AHOU | 300 | .216/.378/.251 | 1 | 18 | 54 | — | .190/.309/.218 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBHOU | 410 | .188/.291/.233 | 1 | 12 | 56 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBHOU | 80 | .197/.299/.261 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBHOU | 141 | .202/.302/.279 | 2 | 4 | 68 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 140 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 410 | 386 | 796 | 114 | 330 | 17 | 17 | 363 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 72 | 63 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 304 | 302 | 606 | 63 | 312 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 109 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 33 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 239 | 362 | 275 | 637 | 37 | 342 | 25 | 13 | 297 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 97 | 74 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 284 | 454 | 405 | 859 | 122 | 351 | 16 | 24 | 396 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 70 | 55 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 273 | 412 | 327 | 739 | 55 | 350 | 21 | 17 | 341 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 192 | 160 | 352 | 250 | 32 | 4 | 154 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 202 | 151 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 55 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 205 | 391 | 238 | 629 | 33 | 313 | 27 | 23 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 149 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 161 | 277 | 215 | 492 | 54 | 206 | 21 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 72 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 246 | 246 | 493 | 46 | 280 | 29 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 217 | 308 | 243 | 551 | 26 | 335 | 34 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 97 | 83 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 330 | 313 | 643 | 96 | 289 | 24 | 14 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 70 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 259 | 368 | 310 | 678 | 52 | 335 | 26 | 13 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 28 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 154 | 120 | 274 | 220 | 43 | 4 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 202 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 75 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 176 | 310 | 200 | 510 | 24 | 297 | 37 | 16 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 149 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 161 | 277 | 215 | 492 | 54 | 209 | 21 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 140 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 410 | 386 | 796 | 114 | 330 | 17 | 17 | 363 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 263 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 90 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 213 | 301 | 266 | 567 | 53 | 318 | 30 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 303 | 246 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 65 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 252 | 378 | 321 | 700 | 69 | 337 | 21 | 16 | 322 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 249 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 105 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 189 | 306 | 217 | 523 | 28 | 313 | 35 | 14 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 300 | 231 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 79 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 216 | 378 | 251 | 629 | 35 | 316 | 26 | 20 | 301 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 149 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 161 | 277 | 215 | 492 | 54 | 206 | 21 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 267 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 90 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 210 | 301 | 262 | 563 | 52 | 307 | 30 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 255 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 105 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 184 | 306 | 212 | 518 | 27 | 299 | 35 | 14 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 175 | 149 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 161 | 277 | 215 | 492 | 54 | 206 | 21 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 267 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 90 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 210 | 301 | 262 | 563 | 52 | 307 | 30 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 255 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 105 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 184 | 306 | 212 | 518 | 27 | 299 | 35 | 14 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 410 | 355 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 122 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 188 | 291 | 233 | 524 | 45 | 278 | 30 | 12 | 250 | 56 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 30% | 266 | 231 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 78 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 195 | 297 | 258 | 555 | 63 | 280 | 29 | 12 | 262 | 63 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 44% | 320 | 277 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 92 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 200 | 300 | 276 | 576 | 76 | 281 | 29 | 12 | 269 | 68 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 51% | 355 | 308 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 101 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 203 | 302 | 288 | 591 | 85 | 282 | 28 | 12 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 52% | 365 | 318 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 104 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 205 | 302 | 292 | 594 | 87 | 282 | 28 | 12 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 368 | 321 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 104 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 205 | 301 | 293 | 595 | 89 | 282 | 28 | 11 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 57% | 361 | 315 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 103 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 203 | 299 | 287 | 586 | 85 | 281 | 29 | 11 | 272 | 70 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 60% | 351 | 306 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 295 | 280 | 575 | 80 | 279 | 29 | 11 | 268 | 67 | -14 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 30% | 80 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 299 | 261 | 560 | 64 | 284 | 29 | 12 | 264 | 63 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 44% | 141 | 122 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 302 | 279 | 581 | 77 | 285 | 29 | 12 | 271 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 51% | 180 | 156 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 304 | 291 | 596 | 86 | 286 | 28 | 12 | 276 | 72 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 52% | 191 | 166 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 304 | 295 | 599 | 88 | 286 | 28 | 12 | 278 | 73 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 196 | 171 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 303 | 296 | 600 | 89 | 286 | 28 | 11 | 278 | 73 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 57% | 206 | 180 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 59 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 301 | 290 | 591 | 85 | 284 | 29 | 11 | 274 | 70 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 60% | 209 | 182 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 60 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 297 | 283 | 580 | 81 | 283 | 29 | 11 | 270 | 67 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1203 | 1047 | 213 | 35 | 0 | 17 | 139 | 343 | 6 | 28 | 7 | 203 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 82 | 283 | 29 | 12 | 274 | 65 | -43 | +3 | -2 | +13 | +26 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 115 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 75 | 185 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 203 | 300 | 284 | 584 | 81 | 283 | 28 | 12 | 274 | 65 | -23 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3374 | 2919 | 581 | 89 | 10 | 33 | 394 | 977 | 21 | 111 | 33 | 199 | 299 | 270 | 569 | 71 | 284 | 29 | 12 | 265 | 65 | -97 | +5 | -4 | +28 | +56 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 111 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 76 | 188 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 198 | 298 | 267 | 564 | 69 | 282 | 29 | 12 | 265 | 65 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 202 PAwOBA .306 → .247 (−58)K% 27.2% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 15.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | — | 26.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | — | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .306 → .247; ISO .033 → .029; BABIP .313 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 70 PAwOBA .338 → .302 (−36)K% 21.4% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 12.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 33.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.08% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .302; ISO .055 → .048; BABIP .350 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 28 PAwOBA .150 → .123 (−27)K% 32.1% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .150 → .123; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 134 PAwOBA .290 → .247 (−43)K% 24.6% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.63% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.95% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 29.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .290 → .247; ISO .037 → .031; BABIP .342 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Astros · 97 PAwOBA .388 → .287 (−101)K% 16.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.49% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.71% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 14.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷0.956 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 22.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.030 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.023 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .388 → .287; ISO .122 → .091; BABIP .351 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 72 PAwOBA .265 → .218 (−47)K% 22.2% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.977 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.40% | ÷0.984 | ×0.870 | ×1.043 | ×1.027 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | ×1.043 | ×1.027 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.043 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.297 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .265 → .218; ISO .063 → .048; BABIP .312 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 175 PAwOBA .359 → .237 (−122)K% 16.6% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.57% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 11.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 15.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.31% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.008 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.981 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.43% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .359 → .237; ISO .114 → .068; BABIP .330 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).