Yoesmerli Beltre

Yoesmerli Beltre P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%22.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	4.85	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	4.85	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	5.22	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.3%	5.5%	0.0%	1.66	3.20	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.3%	5.5%	0.0%	1.66	3.20	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	0.0%	1.66	2.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	0	42	194	41	21	5	0%	1.3	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.4%	4.75	5.38	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	0	42	194	41	21	5	0%	1.3	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.4%	4.75	5.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SD	14	0	19	87	22	12	1	0%	1.3	25.3%	13.8%	11.5%	1.1%	4.34	3.34	—
2026	20	A RAW	SD	18	0	23	107	19	9	4	0%	1.3	17.8%	8.4%	9.3%	3.7%	5.09	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	41	0	43	181	41	20	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.52	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	SD	20	0	21	89	20	10	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	89	20	10	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	95	29	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		57	0	71	329	52	47	7	0%	1.3	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	2.0%	3.91	4.69	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	922	145	132	19	0%	1.3	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	2.0%	3.91	4.69	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoesmerli Beltre (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	22.1%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.52	22.7%	11.8%	43	-0.20	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	90
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	90
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	89
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	88
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	86
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	86
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	86
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	85
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Felix Castro R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.94	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.42	3.52	144	85
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	85
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	517	84
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	84
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.6%	11.1%	1.12	4.61
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22