Rafael Oropeza

SS DSL Phillies White

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Phillies …	129	.209/.326/.273	0	7	11	—	.130/.225/.165
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLB—	239	.203/.273/.275	1	5	57	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLB—	42	.207/.279/.289	0	1	62	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLB—	132	.211/.284/.301	1	3	67	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%58

Z-Con%52

Speed50

BB%41

K%37

Whiff%30

CompsJuan Villavicencio (age 19) · Luis Valenzuela (age 19) · Diomedes Del Rio (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj PA

wRC+57

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .271 / .273

PA67

HR0

K%29

BB%8

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	129	110	23	7	0	0	16	31	3	7	0	209	326	273	598	64	291	24	12	286	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	129	115	15	4	0	0	11	40	3	7	0	130	225	165	390	35	198	31	9	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	129	115	15	4	0	0	11	40	3	7	0	130	225	165	390	35	200	31	9	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	—	129	110	23	7	0	0	16	31	3	7	0	209	326	273	598	64	291	24	12	286	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	129	114	15	4	0	0	11	40	3	7	0	132	225	167	391	35	198	31	9	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	129	114	15	4	0	0	11	40	3	7	0	132	225	167	391	35	198	31	9	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	239	216	43	9	1	1	18	69	3	5	1	203	273	275	548	72	288	29	8	252	57	-12	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	122	110	24	5	1	1	9	35	2	3	1	207	279	289	568	81	290	29	7	260	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	48%	272	245	52	10	2	3	21	76	4	6	2	211	284	301	584	89	291	28	8	267	67	-11	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	54%	386	348	75	15	2	5	30	107	5	9	2	215	287	311	599	96	292	28	8	273	71	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	57%	464	418	92	18	3	7	37	127	6	10	3	218	291	321	611	103	293	27	8	278	74	-14	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	515	462	102	20	3	8	41	139	7	12	3	221	293	329	622	108	294	27	8	282	77	-14	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	546	491	109	21	3	9	43	147	7	12	3	221	294	331	625	110	294	27	8	283	78	-15	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	564	507	113	22	3	10	45	152	7	13	3	221	294	333	627	112	294	27	8	284	78	-15	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	60%	570	513	113	22	3	9	45	155	7	13	3	220	293	330	624	110	293	27	8	282	77	-15	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	62%	570	513	112	22	3	9	45	156	7	12	3	219	291	326	617	107	292	27	8	280	76	-17	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	63%	562	506	110	21	3	9	44	155	7	12	4	216	289	320	609	104	291	28	8	276	73	-18	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	—	63%	554	499	108	21	3	8	43	155	7	11	4	214	285	313	598	99	290	28	8	272	70	-20	+1	-2	+6	+12	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	42	38	8	2	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	207	279	289	568	81	290	29	7	260	62	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	48%	132	119	25	5	1	1	10	37	2	3	1	211	284	301	584	89	291	28	8	267	67	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	54%	209	188	41	8	1	3	16	58	3	5	1	215	287	311	599	96	292	28	8	273	71	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	57%	263	236	51	10	1	4	21	72	4	6	1	218	291	321	611	103	293	27	8	278	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	291	262	58	11	2	5	23	79	4	7	2	221	293	329	622	108	294	27	8	282	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	309	277	62	12	2	5	25	83	4	7	2	221	294	331	625	110	294	27	8	283	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	319	287	63	12	2	5	25	86	4	7	2	221	294	333	627	112	294	27	8	284	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	60%	341	307	68	13	2	6	27	93	4	8	2	220	293	330	624	110	293	27	8	282	77	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	62%	352	317	69	13	2	6	28	96	4	7	2	219	291	326	617	107	292	27	8	280	76	-10	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	63%	353	318	68	13	2	5	28	98	4	7	2	216	289	320	609	104	291	28	8	276	73	-11	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	—	63%	352	317	68	13	2	5	28	98	4	7	2	214	285	313	598	99	290	28	8	272	70	-12	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2963	2666	581	112	17	45	234	812	38	65	17	218	290	323	614	105	294	27	8	278	73	-90	+6	-3	+32	+64	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	128	25	4	10	51	178	8	14	4	219	290	326	617	108	294	27	8	278	73	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5321	4788	1036	203	29	78	419	1463	70	121	31	216	289	320	609	103	293	27	8	275	73	-160	+10	-4	+56	+112	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	128	25	4	10	51	179	9	15	4	219	291	326	618	108	296	28	8	275	73	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.6	3,028	45	66	219	288	323	+32	+21	2.9	2.8
/162	664	10	14	+7.1	+4.6	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Oropeza (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	201/271/273	71	288	0	1	29%	8%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Luis Valenzuela 2013 · A	19	41	37→45	51→45	45	196/255/276	80	259	4	6	25%	7%	51	-2.3	211/250/290	79	273	4	8	23%	5%	51	-2.2	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	37	35→55	53→50	43	177/251/241	65	256	2	8	30%	7%	42	-2.9	192/259/282	90	265	4	9	27%	7%	54	-2.0	185/255/303	118	252	4	11	26%	8%	55	-0.6
✕Manuel Pena 2023 · A	19	41→50	38→50	47→50	42	198/255/277	79	286	6	10	32%	7%	51	-2.3	213/257/304	91	311	6	8	32%	5%	57	-1.8	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	43→50	37→45	49→50	47	199/284/273	74	302	3	11	32%	10%	62	-1.4	217/300/325	108	317	8	16	31%	9%	80	-0.2	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Elis Cuevas 2024 · A	19	41	37→40	51→65	45	195/270/275	80	270	3	14	27%	8%	57	-1.8	199/275/294	95	266	9	32	27%	7%	63	-1.3	188/268/283	95	252	12	43	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Yasmil Bucce 2024 · A	19	41	38→55	49→40	44	194/265/274	79	279	5	4	30%	8%	55	-2.0	199/299/306	107	308	10	4	35%	11%	76	-0.4	192/301/328	137	300	16	2	37%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2014 · A	19	36→46	37→45	50→55	46	176/242/253	76	228	4	12	24%	7%	41	-3.0	231/280/336	105	295	5	13	22%	6%	74	-0.6	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Joseph Tailor 2024 · A	18	40	36→45	53→50	39	191/248/254	63	287	4	14	33%	6%	43	-2.8	179/264/266	87	264	6	13	33%	6%	54	-2.0	141/246/232	90	206	6	17	32%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕John Whittleman 2006 · A	19	44→45	37→50	54→45	48	204/279/289	85	286	2	11	27%	9%	63	-1.4	207/281/318	111	283	9	5	28%	9%	71	-0.8	203/292/325	122	277	11	2	29%	11%	76	-0.4
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Thomas Milone 2015 · A	20	41→46	36→45	51→55	38	195/248/268	73	295	3	10	33%	6%	46	-2.6	200/255/265	65	287	3	13	29%	6%	48	-2.5	237/293/355	117	331	8	17	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2021 · A	19	42	38→45	46→50	48	198/278/293	95	270	4	9	26%	8%	64	-1.3	187/263/295	108	293	10	8	37%	8%	59	-1.6	153/242/259	106	250	10	8	40%	8%	42	-0.7
✕Ryan Mount 2006 · A	19	42	38→50	50	42	194/263/278	84	305	5	8	35%	8%	55	-2.0	216/268/330	114	295	12	11	29%	6%	68	-1.0	242/286/380	138	297	15	8	23%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Ricardo Méndez 2019 · A	19	44	37→45	49→50	37	206/257/280	75	320	4	9	35%	6%	52	-2.2	208/263/290	82	327	4	11	35%	6%	57	-1.8	212/252/306	95	305	6	14	31%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Narciso Polanco 2024 · A	19	38→42	36→40	47→55	46	182/256/247	65	259	3	8	29%	8%	45	-2.7	193/266/277	84	267	6	17	27%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/281	89	260	6	21	27%	8%	54	-1.6
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	41→51	36→50	51→45	46	194/262/269	75	267	2	10	27%	8%	52	-2.2	233/298/320	87	326	5	6	27%	8%	77	-0.3	234/304/323	89	323	6	4	27%	8%	76	-0.2

Rafael Oropeza

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps