Derek Vartanian — OGILVIE

Derek Vartanian P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%20.5%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ATL	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	21.8%	6.6%	15.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	116	488	105	39	15	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	118	500	110	39	15	100%	5.6	22.1%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.27	4.21	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	120	506	114	38	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	120	506	115	38	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	499	113	38	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.17	4.18	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	115	484	109	38	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.1%	4.23	4.26	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	462	103	37	15	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	103	434	95	36	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	96	405	87	35	15	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	3.7%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	89	375	79	34	15	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.1%	12.0%	3.9%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	52	19	7	100%	5.7	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	83	350	77	27	10	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.27	4.21	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	97	410	92	31	12	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	105	443	100	34	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	7.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	107	452	102	35	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.17	4.18	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	106	448	101	35	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.1%	4.23	4.26	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	102	431	96	34	14	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	96	405	89	34	14	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	83	33	14	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	3.7%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	84	355	75	32	14	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.1%	12.0%	3.9%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	156	927	3914	865	314	126	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.2%	4.36	4.01	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	68	27	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.2%	4.36	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		21	20	114	482	78	38	17	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	848	137	66	30	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Vartanian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	20.5%	8.3%	3.0%	—	4.23	22.0%	14.2%	354	-0.23	—	—	—
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	86
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	85
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	81
Kade McClure R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP	3.57	17.3%	9.2%	1.4%	.336	4.29	17.6%	10.2%	227	+0.72	3.57	388	81
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	81
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	81
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	79
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	79
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	79
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	78
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Adonis Uceta R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	15.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.367	3.20	20.3%	10.9%	125	-0.88	2.68	253	76
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	76
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	76
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	76
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	76
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	76
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	102	22.0%	8.0%	1.23	4.35
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01