Derek Vartanian

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#458ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AATL	21	20	114	4.20	3.58	21.8%	6.6%	—	K 16.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.71	4.71	17.6%	8.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBATL	7	7	37	4.58	4.53	19.1%	7.7%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBATL	9	9	53	4.47	4.42	20.0%	7.6%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBlake Beers (age 24) · Marcel Rentería (age 23) · John Ely (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%17.6%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	—
2026	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	—
2026	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	114	482	105	32	13	95%	5.4	21.8%	6.6%	15.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	8.0%	9.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	86	363	69	28	11	100%	5.7	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.53	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	80	337	67	26	10	100%	5.7	20.0%	7.6%	12.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	79	332	68	25	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	7.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.38	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	76	322	66	25	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	3.1%	4.41	4.41	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	72	306	62	24	10	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.50	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	67	284	57	23	10	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.56	4.63	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	61	257	51	21	9	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.81	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	54	228	44	20	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.89	5.01	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	37	156	30	12	5	100%	5.3	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.53	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	53	224	45	17	7	100%	5.9	20.0%	7.6%	12.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	62	262	54	20	8	100%	6.2	20.5%	7.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.38	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	65	274	56	21	8	100%	5.9	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	3.1%	4.41	4.41	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	65	274	56	21	9	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.50	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	61	258	52	21	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.56	4.63	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	56	236	47	20	8	100%	6.2	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.81	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	41	18	8	100%	6.2	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.89	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	449	1895	380	150	62	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.55	4.20	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	67	28	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.55	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		21	20	114	482	78	38	17	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	848	137	66	30	95%	5.4	16.1%	7.8%	8.3%	3.5%	4.20	4.66	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 114 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.66 (+1.07)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.78%	—	×0.740	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×1.180	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Vartanian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	17.6%	8.0%	3.1%	—	4.45	19.9%	12.2%	244	-0.26	—	—	—
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	92
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	91
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	90
Jose Acevedo R 2001 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.3%	7.7%	4.1%	.280	4.83	16.9%	11.0%	208	-0.10	3.43	368	90
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	89
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	89
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	88
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	88
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	88
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	87
Juan Grijalva R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.271	5.91	11.9%	2.7%	24	+1.46	4.45	110	87
Jonathan Pettibone R 2013 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	15.1%	8.0%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	100	86
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.83	16.5%	10.1%	241	-0.76	3.52	291	86
Paul Rigdon R 2000 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP	5.29	16.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.263	5.34	13.6%	2.5%	79	+0.05	5.29	167	85
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.9%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	85
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	85
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	85
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	85
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	19.7%	7.9%	1.24	4.56
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*