Landon Arroyos — OGILVIE

Landon ArroyosSS FCL Astros

Age 20 R/R ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 145 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .273 / .276

PA145

HR1

SB5

K%30

BB%8

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	173	142	25	2	0	2	27	43	3	31	1	176	320	232	552	56	235	25	16	270	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	173	152	17	1	0	1	17	62	3	31	1	112	215	138	353	26	181	36	10	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	173	152	17	1	0	1	17	62	3	31	1	112	215	138	353	26	178	36	10	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	173	142	25	2	0	2	27	43	3	31	1	176	320	232	552	56	235	25	16	270	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	173	151	17	1	0	1	17	62	3	31	1	113	215	139	354	26	181	36	10	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	173	151	17	1	0	1	17	62	3	31	1	113	215	139	354	26	181	36	10	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	283	255	53	8	2	3	23	84	3	9	1	203	275	278	554	76	287	30	8	255	59	-14	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	225	203	42	6	1	3	18	66	2	7	1	207	281	293	573	86	288	29	8	263	64	-10	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	345	310	65	10	2	5	28	99	4	11	1	211	285	305	590	94	289	29	8	269	68	-13	+2	+0	+4	+7	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	426	383	82	13	2	7	35	121	5	13	1	215	288	315	604	101	290	28	8	275	72	-14	+2	+0	+5	+9	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	480	432	95	15	3	9	40	134	5	15	2	218	291	324	616	107	291	28	8	279	75	-14	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	510	457	101	16	3	10	42	141	6	16	2	220	293	332	625	112	292	28	8	283	78	-14	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	527	472	103	16	3	10	44	146	6	16	2	220	294	333	627	113	291	28	8	284	78	-14	+2	+0	+6	+11	0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	534	479	104	16	3	10	44	148	6	16	2	219	293	331	624	112	291	28	8	282	77	-14	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	533	478	104	16	3	10	44	149	6	15	2	217	291	326	617	109	290	28	8	280	76	-16	+2	-1	+6	+12	0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	58%	526	473	103	16	3	10	43	149	5	15	2	215	288	320	609	106	289	28	8	276	73	-17	+2	-1	+6	+11	0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	60%	517	465	99	15	3	9	42	148	5	14	2	212	285	313	598	101	287	29	8	272	70	-18	+2	-2	+6	+11	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	77	70	14	2	0	1	6	22	1	2	0	209	283	296	578	86	292	29	8	265	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	167	149	32	5	1	2	14	48	2	5	1	213	287	308	595	95	293	29	8	271	68	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	231	207	45	7	1	4	19	65	3	7	1	217	290	318	609	101	294	28	8	277	72	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	266	239	54	9	2	5	22	74	3	8	1	220	293	327	621	107	295	28	8	281	75	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	286	257	57	9	2	5	24	79	3	9	1	222	296	334	630	112	296	28	8	285	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	296	266	60	10	2	6	25	82	3	9	1	222	296	336	632	114	295	28	8	286	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	295	266	60	10	2	6	24	82	3	9	1	221	295	334	628	112	295	28	8	284	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	292	263	57	9	2	5	24	82	3	8	1	220	293	329	622	110	294	28	8	282	76	-9	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	58%	305	274	60	10	2	5	25	86	3	9	1	217	290	323	613	106	293	28	8	278	73	-10	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	60%	311	280	61	10	2	5	25	89	3	9	1	214	287	316	603	101	291	29	8	274	70	-11	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2526	2271	500	81	16	44	208	709	27	75	9	220	293	328	621	108	298	28	8	280	71	-78	+11	-2	+27	+55	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	128	21	4	11	54	182	7	19	2	219	293	325	618	106	297	28	8	280	71	-20	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4941	4434	941	144	27	85	409	1406	55	174	18	212	287	314	601	102	288	28	8	273	71	-151	+22	-4	+51	+103	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	124	19	4	11	54	185	7	23	2	213	287	316	603	103	289	28	8	273	71	-21	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,673	47	80	216	287	321	+29	+18	3.1	3.0
/162	664	12	20	+7.1	+4.5	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Landon Arroyos (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	201/273/276	75	287	1	5	30%	8%	59	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/249/256	81	276	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	192/257/267	75	279	5	10	31%	7%	50	-2.3	170/235/212	43	235	3	6	27%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→40	38→50	54→55	44	200/273/281	81	280	6	20	29%	7%	59	-1.6	210/281/330	120	279	11	18	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/280/342	138	273	13	19	29%	8%	74	-0.5
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Cristian Hernández 2024 · A	20	39→48	37→45	53→60	38	187/246/255	68	296	5	17	37%	7%	42	-2.9	213/278/306	93	307	7	28	30%	8%	67	-1.1	217/285/319	102	301	8	34	29%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Heiker Meneses 2011 · A	20	37→47	36→40	54→55	41	179/248/245	66	260	4	18	31%	7%	42	-2.9	225/274/303	78	328	4	17	31%	5%	63	-1.3	236/284/314	78	342	3	18	30%	4%	66	-0.8
✕Hans Montero 2024 · A	20	36→37	37→45	55	49	172/276/241	69	264	5	18	33%	11%	53	-2.1	182/260/285	103	297	10	17	39%	8%	56	-1.9	173/254/287	113	278	12	22	39%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Cutter Coffey 2024 · A	20	38→45	39→45	49→50	44	185/262/271	86	271	7	13	32%	8%	53	-2.1	201/271/317	116	296	12	10	34%	8%	67	-1.1	199/268/315	116	299	12	9	35%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	44	40→45	52→50	42	209/274/307	98	306	7	12	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/261/285	95	288	7	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	39→33	39→55	59→50	45	191/248/281	90	242	5	22	23%	6%	49	-2.4	195/243/347	152	271	18	8	34%	5%	63	-1.3	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2024 · A	19	41→40	37→45	53→60	45	189/276/261	72	296	4	19	34%	9%	57	-1.8	210/266/317	107	310	10	28	34%	6%	65	-1.2	207/258/332	125	300	14	35	34%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	41→49	40	53→60	46	191/289/283	92	297	8	16	35%	10%	67	-1.1	200/301/282	82	297	6	18	31%	11%	71	-0.8	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Monte Harrison 2016 · A	20	39→45	38→50	56→60	37	181/260/258	78	311	5	21	40%	7%	51	-2.3	197/257/308	111	325	11	16	40%	6%	60	-1.6	201/270/324	123	349	15	41	43%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Max George 2016 · A	20	40→39	40→45	54→55	43	189/275/278	90	295	7	14	35%	8%	61	-1.5	189/271/295	106	262	9	15	30%	8%	63	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Cameron Cauley 2023 · A	20	40→48	37→50	60	39	187/249/260	73	305	4	28	38%	7%	45	-2.7	196/252/317	121	310	12	26	38%	7%	59	-1.6	212/268/359	147	288	15	31	31%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Tyler Goeddel 2013 · A	20	45→52	40→45	55	41	209/276/303	94	318	7	21	34%	7%	65	-1.2	222/276/332	110	308	8	19	29%	6%	71	-0.8	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	43→53	40→50	57→55	43	207/267/301	93	294	6	22	30%	7%	61	-1.5	237/294/369	132	297	12	21	23%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/388	143	293	14	19	20%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Jorge Vega-Rosado 2012 · A	20	46	41→45	55	41	224/274/324	100	303	8	19	28%	6%	69	-0.9	204/260/285	81	308	6	14	33%	6%	55	-2.0	172/231/229	57	271	4	15	36%	6%	30	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps