Bryant Olson

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	27	30	3.94	4.35	33.3%	24.8%	—	K 23.3% · BB 30.2% · FIP 5.79
2026	23	AWSH	9	11	2.38	3.19	42.9%	20.4%	—	K 42.9% · BB 20.4% · FIP 3.19
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	17	18	5.69	5.69	23.0%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	11	12	5.37	5.25	23.4%	16.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDillon Larsen (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%23.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	30.2%	-7.0%	1.5%	3.94	5.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	30.2%	-7.0%	1.5%	3.94	5.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	30	141	47	35	2	0%	1.1	33.3%	24.8%	8.5%	1.4%	3.94	4.35	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	42.9%	20.4%	22.4%	2.0%	2.38	3.19	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	42.9%	20.4%	22.4%	2.0%	2.38	3.19	—
2026	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	21	10	1	0%	1.3	42.9%	20.4%	22.4%	2.0%	2.38	3.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	17	0	18	76	18	15	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	20.0%	3.0%	2.9%	5.69	5.69	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	26	0	27	114	27	19	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.37	5.25	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	11	0	12	51	12	9	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.37	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	11	8	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.37	4.87	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	139	17	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.37	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		36	0	41	190	54	53	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	27.7%	0.6%	1.6%	3.51	5.12	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	927	262	257	15	0%	1.1	28.3%	27.7%	0.6%	1.6%	3.51	5.12	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryant Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	23.0%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.25	23.4%	6.5%	27	-0.44	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	92
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	88
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	87
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	87
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	87
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	86
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	86
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	82
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	80
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	80
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	79
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	78
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	78
Yoan Aybar L 2021 · 5.91 FIP	24	SU	5.91	19.2%	16.2%	4.3%	.323	6.04	20.9%	1.2%	41	+0.13	3.41	166	78
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	78
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	78
B.J. Ryan L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	21.2%	15.5%	3.6%	.252	3.59	24.5%	12.9%	161	-1.68	1.77	532	77
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	77