Will Cannon — OGILVIE

Will Cannon P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 201 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	58	241	58	29	6	0%	1.6	17.8%	14.3%	3.5%	3.0%	3.41	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	58	241	58	29	6	0%	1.6	17.8%	14.3%	3.5%	3.0%	3.41	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	58	241	58	29	6	0%	1.6	24.1%	12.0%	12.0%	2.5%	3.41	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	0	50	228	54	25	7	0%	1.3	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	3.7%	6.48	5.03	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	0	50	228	54	25	7	0%	1.3	19.2%	12.1%	7.1%	3.7%	6.48	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	CIN	38	0	50	228	54	25	7	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	3.1%	6.48	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	54	226	46	27	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.91	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	229	48	25	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.72	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	20	12	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.91	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	32	17	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	252	52	29	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	97	23	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		75	0	108	469	87	62	16	0%	1.4	18.4%	13.2%	5.3%	3.3%	4.83	5.03	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	0	200	869	160	115	29	0%	1.4	18.4%	13.2%	5.3%	3.3%	4.83	5.03	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Cannon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.9%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.81	20.6%	9.1%	108	-0.41	—	—	—
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	93
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	93
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	92
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	90
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	89
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	88
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	88
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Colby Blueberg R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.80	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.62	2.36	229	88
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	88
Gabriel Ponce R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	20.5%	14.5%	2.3%	.238	4.61	23.9%	9.0%	61	+0.16	4.45	161	88
Ralston Cash R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	19.4%	11.8%	3.5%	.240	3.89	23.0%	11.0%	185	-0.96	3.02	242	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	20.1%	12.0%	1.14	4.98
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84