Will Cannon
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 201 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%21.5%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 241 | 58 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 4.91 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 241 | 58 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 3.41 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 25 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.07 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 69 | 301 | 66 | 35 | 9 | — | — | 21.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 5.27 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 0 | 147 | 620 | 141 | 60 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.04 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 82 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 88 | 376 | 67 | 53 | 11 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 5.05 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 153 | 121 | 26 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Cannon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.41 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 122 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 95 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 92 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 91 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 90 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 90 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 90 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 89 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .350 | 3.78 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.38 | 2.79 | 164 | 89 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .307 | 4.97 | 21.3% | 2.2% | 89 | +0.47 | 3.36 | 219 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 89 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 89 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 40 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 1.14 | 4.48 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |