Brandt Thompson — OGILVIE

Brandt Thompson P Springfield Cardinals

+0.5 WAR

Age 24 RHP 5'9" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.2%

IP95

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	17.0%	6.4%	5.6%	3.65	5.55	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	2	1	7	33	6	4	0	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	STL	17	17	95	400	86	33	14	21.5%	8.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.60	+0.7
2026 Total	24	MLB	STL	—	—	102	433	92	37	14	21.2%	8.5%	3.2%	4.55	4.28	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	STL	20	20	108	456	100	37	15	21.9%	8.0%	3.4%	4.53	4.51	+1.0
2028	26	MLB	STL	21	21	115	485	107	39	16	22.1%	8.0%	3.4%	4.49	4.47	+1.1
2029	27	MLB	STL	21	21	118	498	110	40	17	22.1%	8.0%	3.4%	4.47	4.47	+1.1
2030	28	MLB	STL	21	21	118	499	110	40	17	22.1%	8.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.49	+1.1
2031	29	MLB	STL	21	21	116	488	107	39	17	21.9%	8.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.53	+1.0
2032	30	MLB	STL	20	20	112	473	103	39	16	21.8%	8.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.59	+0.9
2033	31	MLB	STL	20	20	108	456	98	38	16	21.5%	8.3%	3.6%	4.63	4.67	+0.8
2034	32	MLB	STL	19	19	104	438	93	37	16	21.2%	8.5%	3.6%	4.71	4.76	+0.6
2035	33	MLB	STL	18	18	99	418	88	36	16	20.9%	8.6%	3.7%	4.80	4.85	+0.5
2036	34	MLB	STL	17	17	94	397	82	35	15	20.6%	8.8%	3.8%	4.90	4.96	+0.3
2037	35	MLB	STL	16	16	89	375	76	34	15	20.2%	9.1%	3.9%	5.01	5.08	+0.1
2038	36	MLB	STL	15	15	83	350	69	33	14	19.8%	9.3%	4.1%	5.13	5.22	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	21	111	448	77	31	23	17.1%	6.9%	5.2%	3.66	5.37	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—			43	38	200	810	139	56	42	17.1%	6.9%	5.2%	3.66	5.37	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandt Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	21.5%	8.2%	3.5%	—	4.48	22.0%	14.0%	341	-0.12	—	—	—
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	97
Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	94
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	92
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	91
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	90
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	24	SP-	4.66	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.22	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.44	3.50	368	90
Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.18	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.72	4.14	279	89
Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	89
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	17.0%	6.5%	3.7%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.39	3.50	472	89
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	89
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	89
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP-	4.31	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.37	17.8%	9.7%	313	+0.06	2.50	554	89
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	89
Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	88
Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	16.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.277	3.52	21.8%	12.7%	44	-0.88	3.52	128	88
Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.05	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.27	3.05	176	88
T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	20.0%	9.1%	2.6%	.319	3.42	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.56	3.15	349	88
Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	19.8%	8.8%	2.8%	.337	5.97	17.2%	8.4%	186	+1.89	4.08	418	88
Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP-	5.13	18.8%	10.2%	4.2%	.327	3.98	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.15	2.65	315	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
Totals		$8M		$40M	+$32M