Brandt Thompson
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
RHP
5'9" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.01
FIP5.01
K%16.6%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 20 | 104 | 415 | 92 | 24 | 16 | 91% | 4.7 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 3.65 | 5.68 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 20 | 104 | 415 | 92 | 24 | 16 | 91% | 4.7 | 22.2% | 5.8% | 16.4% | 3.9% | 3.65 | 4.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 17 | 10 | 67 | 295 | 71 | 30 | 7 | 59% | 4.0 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 67 | 284 | 47 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 135 | 579 | 118 | 53 | 17 | — | — | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 43 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 183 | 774 | 143 | 63 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.47 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 69 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 30 | 171 | 710 | 129 | 59 | 32 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 4.32 | 5.13 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 151 | 69 | 38 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 4.32 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandt Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.83 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 91 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 89 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 88 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 87 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 85 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 85 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 85 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 83 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 83 |
| Brooks Hall R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 83 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 83 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 83 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 82 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 82 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 82 |
| Carlos Frías R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .320 | 4.70 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.54 | 3.64 | 204 | 82 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 1.34 | 4.88 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |