Brandt Thompson — OGILVIE

Brandt Thompson P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 5'9" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%16.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	5.6%	3.65	5.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	5.6%	3.65	5.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	22.2%	5.8%	16.4%	3.9%	3.65	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	27	18	112	493	122	47	12	67%	4.2	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.8%	4.89	4.12	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	27	18	112	493	122	47	12	67%	4.2	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.8%	4.89	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	STL	12	8	50	215	62	21	6	67%	4.1	28.8%	9.8%	19.1%	2.8%	4.89	3.43	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	STL	15	10	63	278	60	26	6	67%	4.2	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	2.2%	4.88	3.65	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	6	24	4	2	1	100%	5.7	16.6%	7.3%	9.2%	3.5%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	118	517	126	49	13	—	—	24.4%	9.4%	14.9%	2.5%	4.89	4.16	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	111	470	83	34	16	100%	5.9	17.7%	7.2%	10.4%	3.4%	4.80	4.77	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	111	470	86	34	16	100%	5.9	18.2%	7.2%	11.0%	3.4%	4.73	4.71	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	463	85	34	16	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	106	449	82	34	16	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.76	4.79	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	102	429	78	33	16	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.86	4.92	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	96	403	72	32	15	100%	6.0	17.8%	8.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.01	5.10	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	40	17	7	100%	6.0	17.7%	7.2%	10.4%	3.2%	4.67	4.64	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	59	24	10	100%	5.9	18.2%	7.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.58	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	67	27	12	100%	6.2	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.58	4.59	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	91	384	70	29	12	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	69	29	13	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.78	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	64	29	13	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.0%	9.7%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	485	2048	371	154	67	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.33	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	64	28	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		49	38	216	908	171	73	37	78%	4.4	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	4.1%	4.29	4.78	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	841	158	68	34	78%	4.4	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	4.1%	4.29	4.78	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandt Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	16.6%	7.3%	3.5%	—	4.73	18.1%	10.8%	332	-0.18	—	—	—
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	90
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	89
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	81
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	17.9%	7.5%	1.36	4.82
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37