Brandt Thompson

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 5'9" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#713ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX3 levels	22	20	104	3.65	4.03	22.2%	5.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 5.56
2026	24	MIX2 levels	28	19	117	4.83	3.48	25.1%	9.5%	—	K 21.0% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.99
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	1	1	8	4.71	4.71	18.5%	9.2%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSTL	7	7	42	4.54	4.53	19.0%	9.0%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSTL	9	9	52	4.52	4.53	19.2%	9.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%18.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	5.6%	3.65	5.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	5.6%	3.65	5.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	20	104	415	92	24	16	91%	4.7	22.2%	5.8%	16.4%	3.9%	3.65	4.03	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	117	514	129	49	12	68%	4.2	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.83	3.99	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	117	514	129	49	12	68%	4.2	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.83	3.99	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	117	514	129	49	12	68%	4.2	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.3%	4.83	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.0	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	86	365	69	33	11	100%	6.2	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.64	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	78	331	64	30	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.65	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	73	309	60	28	10	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	68	285	54	26	9	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	61	257	48	25	9	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.6%	9.2%	3.5%	4.91	5.01	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	34	16	5	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.54	4.53	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	52	220	42	20	6	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.53	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	46	21	7	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	45	22	7	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.70	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	42	21	7	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.6%	9.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.88	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	259	1092	208	101	32	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.27	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	78	25	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		50	39	221	929	178	75	37	78%	4.4	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	4.0%	4.28	4.69	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	841	161	68	34	78%	4.4	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	4.0%	4.28	4.69	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 68 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.75 (+0.26)K% 22.4% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.860	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×0.900	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 50 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.33 (+0.89)K% 28.8% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.84%	—	×0.810	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×1.100	10.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 80 IPFIP 4.64 → 6.04 (+1.41)K% 19.8% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.740	14.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.25%	—	×1.180	6.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.63%	÷0.973	×1.300	6.18%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 15 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.91 (+1.31)K% 39.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.98%	—	×0.770	30.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.150	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.857	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 9 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.34 (+0.37)K% 15.6% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.810	12.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.100	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.105	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandt Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	18.5%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.66	19.2%	10.1%	238	-0.05	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	88
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	88
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	87
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	87
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	84
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	82
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	81
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	81
Brad Peacock R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP-	4.92	21.1%	10.1%	4.2%	.267	4.33	20.6%	10.7%	280	-0.59	2.97	748	81
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	81
Esmil Rogers R 2011 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	15.6%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.10	19.4%	12.0%	262	-0.69	2.86	616	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	19.0%	9.2%	1.20	4.71
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*