Manuel Cruz

P FCL Yankees

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	12	12	38	8.60	4.53	16.2%	13.5%	—	K 11.0% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.45
2026	20	ROKNYY	11	2	38	5.92	4.86	18.2%	14.9%	—	K 12.4% · BB 18.6% · FIP 6.11
2027PROJ	21	MLBNYY	21	0	22	5.77	5.77	17.4%	16.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBNYY	17	0	18	5.40	5.25	19.4%	14.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLisandro Almonte (age 21) · Wills Montgomerie (age 23) · Jhoster Baez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%17.4%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%0.7%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	11.0%	16.9%	-5.9%	2.1%	8.60	5.45	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	11.0%	16.9%	-5.9%	2.1%	8.60	5.45	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	1.6%	8.60	4.53	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	12.4%	18.6%	-6.2%	3.1%	5.92	6.11	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	12.4%	18.6%	-6.2%	3.1%	5.92	6.11	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	18.2%	14.9%	3.3%	2.2%	5.92	4.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	NYY	21	0	22	93	16	16	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	16.7%	0.7%	3.0%	5.77	5.77	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34	0	36	152	29	22	4	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.25	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	17	0	18	76	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	14	11	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.40	4.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	125	23	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	2.9%	5.40	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	14	76	366	43	65	9	61%	3.3	11.7%	17.8%	-6.1%	2.6%	7.26	5.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	37	200	967	113	172	25	61%	3.3	11.7%	17.8%	-6.1%	2.6%	7.26	5.78	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	17.4%	16.7%	3.0%	—	5.25	19.4%	5.2%	36	-0.52	—	—	—
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	85
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	84
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	84
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	84
Ian Snell R 2004 · 5.74 FIP	22	SW	5.74	16.1%	16.1%	3.6%	.333	4.06	20.2%	12.0%	436	-1.68	3.69	804	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	81
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	81
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	79
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.7%	15.2%	1.14	5.54
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*