Tyler Davis — OGILVIE

Tyler Davis P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 133

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%19.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3035

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	1.4%	3.54	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	1.4%	3.54	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.0%	3.54	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	25	0	47	202	49	16	8	0%	1.9	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	4.8%	5.21	5.22	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	25	0	47	202	49	16	8	0%	1.9	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	4.8%	5.21	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	BOS	10	0	14	59	17	3	2	0%	1.4	28.8%	5.1%	23.7%	3.4%	5.02	3.17	—
2026	24	AA RAW	BOS	15	0	32	143	32	13	6	0%	2.2	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	4.2%	5.29	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	244	49	33	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	13.4%	6.9%	2.8%	5.05	4.99	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	244	51	32	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	4.94	4.91	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	24	0	25	106	21	14	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	13.4%	6.9%	2.8%	5.05	4.99	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	34	21	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	4.94	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	56	36	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.1%	7.4%	2.8%	4.98	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	113	25	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.1%	7.4%	2.8%	4.98	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		53	1	95	408	75	47	12	2%	1.8	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.67	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	2	200	859	159	98	26	2%	1.8	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.67	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	19.2%	14.6%	2.8%	—	4.95	20.5%	7.3%	116	-0.28	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	91
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	91
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	87
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	87
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	87
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	86
Kumar Nambiar L 2022 · 4.75 FIP	24	SU	4.75	18.5%	14.3%	2.6%	.277	4.94	14.0%	1.0%	60	+0.19	3.10	221	85
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	85
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	85
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2016 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	16.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.240	5.21	12.1%	-1.2%	58	+0.63	4.58	195	84
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	84
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	84
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	84
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	84
Winston Lavendier L 2017 · 5.06 FIP	24	SU	5.06	17.8%	12.9%	3.4%	.344	4.94	14.2%	4.7%	21	-0.12	2.98	179	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	83
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.1%	13.7%	1.08	5.07
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78