Tyler Davis
P
Greenville Drive
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.16
FIP5.16
K%19.2%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%5.2%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 48 | 206 | 48 | 23 | 2 | 4% | 1.7 | 17.6% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 4.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 48 | 206 | 48 | 23 | 2 | 4% | 1.7 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 1.0% | 3.54 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 10 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 4.8% | 6.75 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 46 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 72 | 304 | 62 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.48 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 49 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 51 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 454 | 94 | 57 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.50 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 175 | 106 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 1 | 63 | 269 | 50 | 33 | 6 | 3% | 1.7 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 3 | 200 | 854 | 160 | 105 | 19 | 3% | 1.7 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 19.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.89 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 172 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 93 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 90 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.70 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.22 | 2.65 | 160 | 89 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 88 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.52 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.51 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.01 | 4.30 | 128 | 87 |
| Chris Reed L 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 87 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 86 |
| Kumar Nambiar L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.84 | 18.5% | 14.3% | 2.7% | .277 | 4.73 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 60 | -0.11 | 3.10 | 221 | 86 |
| Andre Wheeler L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .347 | 4.73 | 14.4% | 2.4% | 29 | -0.59 | 3.77 | 150 | 85 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 85 |
| Winston Lavendier L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.95 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 21 | -0.10 | 2.98 | 179 | 85 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .361 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 40 | -0.02 | 3.01 | 201 | 85 |
| Brian Moran L 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 85 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 170 | 84 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 84 |
| John Kilichowski L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.41 | 17.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 132 | 84 |
| Cam Alldred L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.60 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 332 | 84 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 5.01 | 12.1% | -1.2% | 58 | +0.39 | 4.62 | 195 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 1.08 | 4.98 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |