Alex Conover — OGILVIE

Alex ConoverOF Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 L/R A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .289 / .341

PA94

HR2

K%26

BB%6

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	76	20	4	0	2	6	14	5	9	1	263	356	395	751	132	300	16	7	343	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	78	18	3	0	2	4	19	5	9	1	231	310	346	656	115	286	22	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	78	18	3	0	2	4	19	5	9	1	231	310	346	656	115	281	22	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	76	20	4	0	2	6	14	5	9	1	263	356	395	751	132	300	16	7	343	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	78	18	3	0	2	4	19	5	9	1	231	310	346	656	115	286	22	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	87	78	18	3	0	2	4	19	5	9	1	231	310	346	656	115	286	22	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	197	179	41	7	1	4	12	50	4	5	1	227	291	344	635	117	290	25	6	286	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	25%	195	177	40	7	1	4	12	49	4	4	1	229	294	351	646	122	291	25	6	290	83	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	38%	309	280	65	11	2	7	20	77	6	6	1	231	297	357	654	126	292	25	6	294	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	44%	390	353	83	15	2	9	26	97	8	8	1	233	299	362	662	129	292	25	7	297	87	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	47%	437	397	92	16	2	10	29	108	8	8	1	234	301	366	666	132	292	25	7	299	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	49%	465	421	98	18	2	11	32	114	9	9	1	235	302	368	670	134	292	25	7	300	89	-6	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	49%	477	432	100	18	2	11	33	118	9	9	1	233	300	365	666	132	292	25	7	298	88	-7	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	49%	480	435	100	18	2	11	33	119	9	8	1	232	298	361	659	129	291	25	7	296	86	-8	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	48%	475	431	99	18	2	11	32	120	9	8	1	229	296	354	650	125	289	25	7	292	84	-9	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	47%	468	426	96	17	2	10	31	119	8	7	1	226	292	346	638	120	287	25	7	287	80	-11	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	25%	48	44	10	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	226	291	347	638	121	285	25	6	287	83	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	38%	118	107	25	4	1	3	8	29	2	2	0	228	294	353	647	125	286	25	7	291	85	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	44%	171	155	36	6	1	4	11	42	3	3	0	230	296	358	654	128	287	25	6	294	87	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	47%	206	186	43	7	1	5	14	51	4	4	1	231	298	361	659	131	287	25	7	296	88	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	49%	228	206	48	8	1	6	16	56	4	4	1	231	298	364	662	133	287	25	7	297	89	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	49%	234	212	49	8	1	6	16	58	4	4	1	230	297	361	658	131	286	25	7	295	88	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	49%	236	214	49	8	1	6	16	59	4	4	1	228	295	356	652	128	285	25	7	293	86	-4	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	48%	229	208	47	8	1	5	15	58	4	4	1	226	292	350	642	124	284	25	7	289	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	47%	222	201	46	8	1	5	15	57	4	3	1	223	289	342	631	119	282	26	7	284	80	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1692	1533	353	59	8	41	114	422	30	29	6	230	296	359	656	129	289	25	7	292	85	-28	+3	-2	-10	+37	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	136	23	3	16	44	162	12	11	2	231	298	362	660	131	290	25	7	292	85	-11	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3877	3516	810	144	17	88	258	964	77	78	10	230	297	356	653	126	291	25	7	295	85	-65	+10	-4	-23	+82	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	136	24	3	15	43	162	13	13	2	231	298	358	656	127	292	25	7	295	85	-11	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,788	41	33	232	295	361	-11	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	15	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Conover (OGILVIE)	21	50	50	50	—	225/289/341	116	290	2	2	26%	6%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2023 · A	21	47→54	43→50	52→50	42	231/269/337	106	282	10	9	22%	5%	70	-0.9	217/274/323	106	272	10	10	23%	7%	69	-0.9	223/292/355	132	284	14	7	25%	8%	81	-0.0
●Andrew Toles 2013 · A	21	43→53	45	51→60	38	217/252/345	127	271	12	13	25%	4%	65	-1.2	245/275/343	98	330	4	28	26%	3%	72	-0.7	279/314/423	145	342	13	14	22%	4%	104	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2017 · A	21	47→55	40→45	52→70	43	226/279/321	95	294	7	17	25%	6%	70	-0.9	222/278/324	102	303	9	19	28%	7%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Drew Vettleson 2012 · A	21	44→51	44→45	53→50	42	217/271/334	117	291	11	15	29%	6%	70	-0.8	226/272/335	109	308	9	9	28%	6%	70	-0.8	225/270/336	111	305	9	7	28%	5%	67	-0.8
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	43→48	45	47→55	44	214/274/339	125	284	11	11	28%	7%	72	-0.7	217/269/335	118	286	12	10	27%	6%	70	-0.9	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2014 · A	21	48→55	40→50	52→50	45	231/285/319	88	290	8	13	23%	7%	72	-0.7	244/299/352	108	296	8	10	19%	7%	84	+0.1	250/311/385	135	298	13	9	20%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Kyle Waldrop 2014 · A	22	43→53	46→50	49→50	38	219/254/352	134	282	13	11	28%	4%	68	-1.0	236/270/352	116	309	11	8	26%	4%	74	-0.6	241/274/347	105	312	9	6	25%	4%	72	-0.6
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	42→48	45→50	53→55	40	206/268/336	130	291	12	19	32%	6%	70	-0.8	209/279/335	126	306	11	17	33%	7%	74	-0.5	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Luis Matos 2023 · A	21	44→54	45→50	49→50	42	221/265/341	120	256	13	12	20%	5%	70	-0.8	240/292/380	140	260	15	12	14%	6%	89	+0.5	246/298/398	152	258	18	13	13%	6%	95	+0.7
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	204/270/315	111	285	10	12	31%	5%	66	-1.1	200/240/310	110	252	12	7	26%	4%	53	-2.1	241/269/392	150	282	18	8	21%	3%	81	-0.0
✕Jorge Barrosa 2022 · A	21	47→52	41→45	52→55	41	227/283/328	101	296	8	21	26%	5%	74	-0.6	235/303/358	123	289	11	18	21%	8%	88	+0.4	234/307/360	127	282	11	18	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Jordan Patterson 2015 · A	23	43→50	43→55	48→50	40	212/275/316	104	283	11	13	28%	5%	69	-0.9	228/288/373	145	315	14	11	31%	5%	86	+0.3	227/288/386	159	316	15	9	31%	5%	86	+0.3
✕Julio Morban 2013 · A	21	46	46→50	50→45	37	229/269/358	129	317	14	8	32%	5%	75	-0.5	226/272/336	110	343	9	7	34%	6%	70	-0.8	217/267/317	99	344	5	5	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Matthew Sulentic 2009 · A	21	47→57	42→45	49→50	40	229/277/337	108	313	9	7	29%	6%	73	-0.6	244/292/333	89	336	6	14	27%	6%	77	-0.3	243/292/316	73	328	5	17	26%	6%	71	-0.7
✕Ezequiel Pagan 2022 · A	22	44→54	42→45	52→50	39	218/265/326	108	279	9	9	25%	4%	66	-1.1	234/286/340	106	285	10	10	21%	5%	77	-0.3	229/282/328	99	275	10	12	20%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A	21	42→45	45→50	55→50	39	207/270/339	132	294	12	8	32%	6%	72	-0.7	210/260/342	132	294	14	8	32%	5%	68	-1.0	208/282/359	151	278	18	6	31%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Juan Silva 2013 · A	22	46→47	42→45	48→55	46	217/290/321	104	313	9	13	32%	9%	74	-0.5	228/306/330	102	307	8	24	26%	10%	82	+0.0	227/308/323	96	296	6	29	23%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Junior Franco 2024 · A	21	42→43	43→45	50→55	38	208/258/315	107	302	10	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	220/274/324	104	286	10	19	25%	6%	69	-0.9	227/282/332	105	286	10	21	23%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Jeremy Moore 2008 · A	21	39→49	46→55	50→55	35	198/244/329	131	288	14	13	36%	5%	59	-1.6	213/252/357	144	324	15	17	37%	5%	68	-1.0	246/283/398	152	347	14	19	32%	4%	87	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps