Jeury Espinal

P ACL D-backs

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKARI	15	2	38	4.50	4.34	19.3%	11.8%	—	K 13.1% · BB 14.8% · FIP 6.08
2026	19	ROKARI	10	7	38	5.45	4.21	17.8%	10.0%	—	K 12.1% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	20	MLBARI	22	0	23	5.14	5.14	18.1%	12.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBARI	17	0	18	4.94	4.85	19.5%	11.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEccel Correa (age 20) · Felix Arronde (age 20) · Julio Goff (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%18.1%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	24.3%	6.2%	18.2%	3.0%	3.12	3.45	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	24.3%	6.2%	18.2%	3.0%	3.12	3.45	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	35.8%	4.9%	30.9%	2.5%	3.12	2.11	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	13.1%	14.8%	-1.7%	4.0%	4.50	6.08	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	13.1%	14.8%	-1.7%	4.0%	4.50	6.08	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	2.5%	4.50	4.34	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	5.45	4.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	22	0	23	97	18	12	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.1%	6.1%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	34	0	36	152	30	17	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	15	8	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	15	8	2	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	91	23	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		36	13	116	503	82	56	17	36%	3.2	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	22	200	865	141	97	29	36%	3.2	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.98	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeury Espinal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	18.1%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.85	19.5%	8.5%	36	-0.29	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	92
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	87
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	86
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	85
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	84
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	84
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	84
Ruben Galindo R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	15.9%	11.1%	2.8%	.345	3.51	19.0%	7.7%	149	-1.17	2.84	239	83
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	83
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	83
Darwin Ramos R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	20	SW	4.03	16.0%	11.2%	1.6%	.353	3.66	15.7%	5.9%	177	-0.37	3.34	262	82
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	82
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Ricardo Brizuela R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	20	SW	4.09	17.0%	9.1%	2.3%	.305	4.49	15.6%	6.9%	157	+0.40	3.20	246	81
David McKay R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.2%	10.2%	2.3%	.282	4.50	22.9%	12.4%	211	+0.13	3.20	288	81
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81
Lisandro Almonte R 2022 · 4.73 FIP	20	SP-	4.73	17.9%	10.3%	3.3%	.310	5.04	20.5%	3.3%	50	+0.31	3.81	128	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.9%	11.4%	1.16	5.02
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26