Luis Rives — OGILVIE

Luis RivesOF FCL Astros

Age 21 S/L 6'2" / 216 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 84 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .286 / .293

PA84

HR1

K%29

BB%10

BABIP280

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	132	125	22	3	0	1	6	38	0	12	3	176	214	224	438	48	244	29	5	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	117	96	13	1	2	2	16	49	3	9	0	135	278	250	528	115	234	42	14	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	HOU	—	126	106	22	2	1	3	17	35	3	15	2	208	333	330	664	123	279	28	13	299	87	-2	+2	+0	-1	+4	0.3
YTD	21	ROK	HOU	—	126	95	26	3	1	4	28	24	3	15	2	274	452	453	905	179	328	19	22	411	173	+10	+2	+0	-1	+4	1.6
ROS	21	ROK	HOU	0%	84	75	15	2	1	1	8	24	1	4	1	200	286	293	579	93	273	29	10	275	68	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		276	—	—	267	63	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	HOU	—	126	107	22	2	1	3	17	35	3	15	2	206	333	327	660	121	275	28	13	299	87	-2	+2	+0	-1	+4	0.3
TOT	21	ROK	HOU	—	210	181	37	4	2	4	25	59	4	19	3	204	314	315	629	110	280	28	12	289	80	-5	+3	+0	-1	+6	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	232	204	44	7	2	5	23	64	3	7	1	216	304	343	647	127	276	28	10	283	74	-7	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	337	297	63	10	2	7	33	91	4	10	2	212	299	330	629	118	278	27	10	288	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	409	361	79	13	3	9	40	109	5	12	2	219	305	346	652	127	280	27	10	291	81	-9	+2	+0	-2	+12	0.2
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	449	397	86	14	3	10	44	119	5	13	2	217	303	343	645	126	280	27	10	293	82	-9	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	474	418	91	15	3	11	47	125	6	13	2	218	306	347	653	129	280	26	10	293	82	-9	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	483	426	92	15	3	11	48	128	6	13	2	216	304	343	647	127	279	27	10	293	82	-10	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.3
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	80	71	15	2	1	2	8	22	1	2	0	211	300	352	652	141	278	28	10	276	70	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	163	144	31	5	1	4	16	44	2	5	1	215	302	347	650	132	280	27	10	282	74	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	216	190	41	7	1	5	21	57	3	6	1	216	304	342	646	126	282	26	10	285	77	-6	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	246	217	49	8	2	6	24	65	3	7	1	226	311	364	676	138	282	26	10	287	78	-6	+1	+0	-1	+7	0.0
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	264	233	51	8	2	6	26	70	3	7	1	219	305	348	653	129	282	27	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.0
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	266	235	51	8	2	6	26	70	3	7	1	217	303	345	648	128	282	26	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1235	1091	238	38	9	29	121	328	15	34	5	218	305	349	654	131	283	27	10	285	77	-33	+5	+0	-7	+35	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	125	20	5	15	64	173	8	18	3	218	305	348	654	131	283	27	10	285	77	-17	+2	+0	-4	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	2717	2399	505	80	19	57	265	747	33	93	15	211	298	331	629	120	279	27	10	284	75	-75	+13	+0	-16	+77	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	121	19	5	14	63	179	8	22	4	211	298	334	632	124	279	28	10	284	75	-18	+3	+0	-4	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	68	-5	+1	—	—	+4	0.0
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	135	+5	+2	—	—	+3	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,361	29	38	215	298	337	-8	+0	0.4	0.5
	/162	664	14	18	215	298	337	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Rives (OGILVIE)	21	29→34	39→44	60→65	62	204/314/315	110	280	4	19	28%	12%	80	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2017 · A	21	44	38→45	58→65	42	203/276/285	82	317	4	20	34%	8%	56	-1.3	199/259/296	97	325	8	29	38%	7%	52	-1.6	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕C.J. Beatty 2010 · A	21	40	42→45	52→40	41	198/253/297	98	278	9	9	31%	7%	49	-1.8	209/271/322	113	297	9	5	31%	8%	63	-0.8	201/268/328	127	281	10	2	30%	8%	60	-0.6
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Wenceel Pérez 2022 · A	22	45→48	39→55	55	44	216/268/307	91	282	5	15	25%	6%	57	-1.2	233/292/381	148	288	14	17	23%	7%	87	+0.8	234/296/395	161	281	15	19	22%	7%	91	+0.9
✕Michael Beltre 2017 · A	22	45→52	39→50	56→60	42	211/275/305	93	301	5	13	30%	7%	60	-1.0	215/280/295	80	301	4	10	28%	8%	59	-1.1	228/299/353	126	315	10	22	29%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→55	55→50	40	201/267/329	128	288	12	8	33%	6%	64	-0.8	209/259/340	131	294	14	8	32%	5%	63	-0.8	208/281/368	159	278	20	6	31%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	45→47	41→55	59→65	44	211/283/309	99	307	8	26	32%	8%	66	-0.6	207/279/366	159	301	18	39	35%	8%	79	+0.3	205/278/368	164	287	19	47	34%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2018 · A	21	41→45	41→45	54→50	38	197/249/295	98	294	7	15	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/262/301	104	314	9	14	37%	8%	54	-1.4	188/260/297	109	305	11	14	39%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	43	214/270/306	92	286	8	15	27%	7%	59	-1.1	203/268/295	92	290	8	17	31%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Yonki Hernandez 2012 · A	21	41	36→40	53→55	47	189/286/258	68	278	3	17	30%	9%	55	-1.4	197/263/272	75	318	4	18	36%	7%	47	-1.9	179/228/215	36	302	3	27	40%	6%	13	-1.0
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	42→50	40→45	59→55	39	204/254/302	98	293	6	20	31%	6%	50	-1.7	223/280/337	114	302	9	18	28%	6%	71	-0.3	225/287/343	117	297	10	18	26%	7%	72	-0.1