Luis Rives

OF FCL Astros
Age 22 S/L 6'2" / 216 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKHOU132.231/.290/.31421216—.168/.206/.216
202520ROKHOU117.207/.400/.4023953—.134/.270/.247
202621ROKHOU140.279/.460/.44241785—.205/.331/.316
2027PROJMLE22MLBHOU250.197/.284/.2984667-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBHOU40.204/.290/.3141171-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
wRC+90
BB%90
wOBA82
Speed81
ISO70
K%57
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsRoberto Caro (age 22) · Loidel Chapelli (age 22) · Hayden Cantrelle (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .281 / .296
PA73
HR1
K%29
BB%10
ISO101
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 47
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER47
scouting grade only
EYE73
scouting grade only
SPEED66
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202419 ROKFCL Astros — 132121 28402 10270 123 231290314604 83283 208 274 16 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Astros — 11787 18233 25333 90 207400402802 195283 2821 362 53 — — — — — —
202621 ROKFCL Astros — 140104 29314 32283 172 279460442903 163342 2023 409 85 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 132125 21301 6390 123 168206216422 48233 305 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 11797 13122 15483 90 134270247517 113222 4113 246 53 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 140117 24213 19403 172 205331316647 111275 2914 294 85 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 132125 21301 6390 123 168206216422 48235 305 192 16 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWFCL Astros — 132121 28402 10270 123 231290314604 83283 208 274 16 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 11797 13122 15483 90 134270247517 113224 4113 246 53 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWFCL Astros — 11787 18233 25333 90 207400402802 195283 2821 362 53 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 140117 24213 19403 172 205331316647 111280 2914 294 85 — — — — — —
202621 ROK RAWFCL Astros — 140104 29314 32283 172 279460442903 163342 2023 409 85 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 132125 21301 6390 123 168206216422 48233 305 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 11798 13122 15483 90 133270245514 112222 4113 246 53 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 140117 24213 19403 172 205331316647 111275 2914 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 132125 21301 6390 123 168206216422 48233 305 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 11798 13122 15483 90 133270245514 112222 4113 246 53 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 140117 24213 19403 172 205331316647 111275 2914 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEHOU 0% 250221 44724 24713 61 197284298582 101268 2810 267 67 -10 +1 +0 -2 +5 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEHOU 34% 115102 20312 11321 31 202288311599 109271 2810 274 71 -4 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.2
202823 MLB CTXHOU 34% 4036 7101 4110 10 204290314604 110274 2810 276 71 -1 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4036 7101 4110 10 194275306581 111250 2810 276 58 -1 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 11316016 651790 160 193274303576 109249 2810 276 58 -22 +3 +0 -4 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 577506 901149 581808 436 178273269542 91252 3110 253 58 -7 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 10112510 652039 487 177272268540 91251 3110 253 58 -23 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 140 PAwOBA .403 → .294 (−109)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷1.000×1.440——28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.86%÷1.000×0.620—×0.97513.82%
HBP% /PA2.14%—×0.720—×0.9751.50%
Singles /BIP27.63%÷1.000×0.820×1.036×0.97522.89%
Doubles /BIP3.95%÷1.000×0.720×1.036×0.9752.87%
Triples /BIP1.32%÷1.000×0.720×1.036×0.9750.96%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9754.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .403 → .294; ISO .163 → .126; BABIP .342 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 117 PAwOBA .360 → .246 (−114)K% 28.2% → 41.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.21%÷0.984×1.440——41.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.37%÷0.992×0.620—×0.98513.16%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.720—×0.9851.82%
Singles /BIP18.52%÷0.956×0.820×1.002×0.98515.67%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷0.982×0.720×1.002×0.9852.68%
Triples /BIP5.56%÷1.030×0.720×1.002×0.9853.83%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.023×0.780—×0.9854.17%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .360 → .246; ISO .195 → .135; BABIP .283 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Astros · 132 PAwOBA .267 → .192 (−75)K% 20.5% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.45%÷1.006×1.440——29.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.58%÷1.033×0.620—×0.9954.52%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP23.40%÷0.984×0.820×1.020×0.99519.80%
Doubles /BIP4.26%÷1.000×0.720×1.020×0.9953.11%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.936×0.720×1.020×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP2.13%÷1.111×0.780—×0.9951.49%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .267 → .192; ISO .083 → .055; BABIP .283 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).