Luis Rives — OGILVIE

Luis RivesOF FCL Astros

Age 21 S/L 6'2" / 216 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION140 act + 13 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .231 / .167

PA13

HR0

K%31

BB%8

BABIP276

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	72	-4	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	131	+4	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	234	30	5	193	17	-13	+1	—	—	+3	-0.9
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	96	13	1	2	2	16	48	3	9	0	135	278	250	528	115	226	41	14	249	55	-6	+2	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	235	30	5	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	96	13	1	2	2	16	48	3	9	0	135	278	250	528	115	229	41	14	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	234	30	5	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	97	13	1	2	2	16	48	3	9	0	134	278	247	526	113	226	41	14	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	234	30	5	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	97	13	1	2	2	16	48	3	9	0	134	278	247	526	113	226	41	14	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	HOU	—	140	116	24	2	1	3	20	40	3	17	2	207	338	319	657	112	284	29	14	300	89	-2	+3	+0	-1	+3	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	HOU	—	140	104	29	3	1	4	32	28	3	17	2	279	460	442	903	163	342	20	23	409	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	ROK MLE	HOU	0%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	167	231	167	397		275	31	8	276	73	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	ROK MLE	HOU	—	153	128	26	2	1	3	21	44	3	18	2	203	329	305	634	102	280	29	14	298	88	-2	+3	+0	-1	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	200	176	37	6	1	4	20	55	2	6	1	210	298	324	622	114	279	28	10	284	79	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	313	274	59	9	2	7	32	84	4	9	1	215	306	339	646	124	281	27	10	290	82	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	393	346	75	12	2	9	39	105	5	11	2	217	305	341	646	124	282	27	10	293	84	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	438	386	84	13	3	10	44	116	5	12	2	218	306	345	650	127	282	26	10	294	85	-8	+2	+0	-3	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	467	412	89	14	3	10	47	124	5	13	2	216	304	337	641	121	282	27	10	295	86	-8	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	478	420	92	15	3	11	49	127	6	13	2	219	309	348	657	129	282	27	10	295	86	-8	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	481	423	91	14	3	11	49	128	6	13	2	215	305	340	646	125	281	27	10	294	85	-9	+2	-1	-3	+10	-0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	477	420	90	14	3	10	49	128	5	12	2	214	304	333	637	119	280	27	10	292	84	-9	+2	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	469	413	88	14	3	10	48	127	5	12	2	213	303	334	637	121	279	27	10	289	82	-10	+2	-2	-3	+10	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	69	61	12	2	0	1	7	19	1	2	0	197	290	279	569	82	281	28	10	276	79	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	152	134	29	5	1	3	15	41	2	4	1	216	305	336	640	119	283	27	10	281	82	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	207	182	39	6	1	4	21	55	2	6	1	214	302	324	627	110	284	27	10	285	84	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	240	211	47	8	2	5	24	64	3	7	1	223	311	351	662	128	284	27	10	286	85	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	260	229	51	8	2	6	26	69	3	7	1	223	310	354	664	131	284	27	10	286	86	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	263	231	51	8	2	6	27	70	3	7	1	221	310	351	661	130	284	27	10	286	86	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	263	231	51	8	2	6	27	70	3	7	1	221	310	351	661	130	283	27	10	285	85	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	254	223	47	8	1	5	26	68	3	7	1	211	302	323	624	112	282	27	10	283	84	-5	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	246	216	45	7	1	5	25	67	3	6	1	208	299	319	619	111	281	27	10	281	82	-5	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1954	1718	372	60	12	41	198	523	23	53	8	217	306	337	643	120	285	27	10	284	81	-37	+7	-2	-12	+42	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	124	20	4	14	66	174	8	18	3	217	307	340	647	123	285	27	10	284	81	-12	+2	-1	-4	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3978	3503	741	115	25	85	400	1085	46	123	19	212	301	331	632	120	279	27	10	288	81	-71	+14	-4	-22	+81	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	121	19	4	14	65	177	8	20	3	212	301	332	633	121	279	27	10	288	81	-12	+2	-1	-4	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,064	44	56	216	302	338	-12	+0	1.0	1.1
/162	664	14	18	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Rives (OGILVIE)	21	29→34	39→44	60→65	63	201/293/302	101	275	2	5	28%	10%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	43→44	40→45	55→50	50	207/291/305	98	286	7	16	28%	10%	72	-0.7	224/282/341	117	311	12	11	30%	7%	76	-0.4	229/272/354	124	311	15	8	31%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→41	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	72	-0.7	202/272/280	78	301	2	16	31%	8%	58	-1.7	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	44→46	41→40	55→60	45	214/280/320	106	278	7	20	25%	7%	70	-0.8	213/281/300	87	282	6	26	25%	7%	66	-1.1	204/276/285	81	269	7	32	25%	8%	59	-1.1
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→53	40→45	53→50	51	212/293/307	95	270	8	10	23%	10%	73	-0.6	225/299/349	124	276	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.2	220/327/339	119	312	10	7	29%	13%	91	+0.5
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	74	-0.5	227/292/341	114	308	10	10	28%	6%	80	-0.1	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→38	39→50	55	45	208/278/297	89	275	6	19	25%	7%	65	-1.2	201/273/331	130	270	13	18	29%	7%	71	-0.8	188/266/323	135	254	14	19	30%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	44→46	40→50	59→65	45	210/283/306	96	307	7	26	32%	8%	69	-0.9	205/280/349	144	302	15	39	34%	9%	78	-0.3	202/277/349	146	289	15	47	33%	8%	74	-0.5
✕C.J. Beatty 2010 · A	21	40	42→45	52→40	41	198/253/297	98	278	9	9	31%	7%	55	-2.0	209/270/324	115	297	9	5	31%	7%	68	-1.0	202/267/332	130	282	11	2	30%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	45→49	38→45	55	44	215/279/298	83	279	5	18	24%	6%	65	-1.2	225/287/334	109	284	9	19	23%	7%	76	-0.4	224/293/340	117	276	10	20	22%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	66	-1.1	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	72	-0.7	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Wenceel Pérez 2022 · A	22	45→48	38→55	55	44	214/266/299	85	279	5	15	24%	6%	60	-1.6	231/291/368	137	284	12	17	22%	7%	85	+0.2	232/298/376	144	282	14	17	22%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2017 · A	21	44	38→45	58→65	42	203/276/285	82	317	4	20	34%	8%	61	-1.5	195/258/287	92	323	7	29	39%	7%	55	-2.0	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	65	-1.2	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	56	-1.9	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	22	-1.2
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→48	42→50	56→50	42	223/275/338	115	301	9	15	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/270/329	115	284	10	12	27%	6%	69	-0.9	226/275/366	139	277	16	14	24%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	38→48	41→45	54→65	45	190/253/296	106	249	8	22	26%	7%	55	-1.9	192/267/308	116	292	10	25	35%	8%	63	-1.3	235/311/365	130	323	13	46	29%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Darnell Sweeney 2013 · A	22	49→50	41→45	58→55	46	235/291/337	102	296	8	21	23%	7%	78	-0.3	228/281/354	126	313	10	22	29%	6%	78	-0.3	224/279/352	128	306	10	23	29%	7%	75	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps