Ryan Sprock

3B Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1477ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AMIN	86	.257/.395/.386	2	2	79	—	.227/.326/.347
2026	21	A+/A2 orgs	427	.300/.429/.469	11	16	109	—	.258/.357/.393
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBMIN	531	.201/.297/.321	11	10	77	0.1
2028PROJ25% MLB	23	MLBMIN	93	.205/.300/.332	2	2	81	0.0
2029PROJ36% MLB	24	MLBMIN	151	.209/.303/.339	4	3	83	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

wRC+94

wOBA91

ISO88

K%85

Whiff%83

BB%73

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 81%

CompsAlexander Campos (age 22) · Jeferson Morales (age 22) · Jorge Flores (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .294 / .318

PA210

HR4

K%24

BB%11

ISO121

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	70	18	1	1	2	14	19	2	2	0	257	395	386	781	129	327	22	16	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	147	121	35	8	1	6	21	26	2	2	2	289	403	521	923	231	315	18	14	399	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	280	222	68	13	1	5	49	31	5	14	9	306	442	441	883	135	332	11	18	396	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	75	17	1	1	2	9	26	2	2	0	227	326	347	672	120	301	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	147	127	31	7	1	5	15	35	2	2	2	244	333	433	766	189	270	24	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	280	237	63	11	1	4	34	42	5	14	9	266	370	371	741	105	298	15	12	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	75	17	1	1	2	9	26	2	2	0	227	326	347	672	120	319	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	70	18	1	1	2	14	19	2	2	0	257	395	386	781	129	327	22	16	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	427	364	94	18	2	9	49	77	7	16	11	258	357	393	750	135	298	18	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	427	343	103	21	2	11	70	57	7	16	11	300	429	469	898	169	326	13	16	397	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	75	17	1	1	2	9	26	2	2	0	227	326	347	672	120	301	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	427	368	94	18	2	9	49	77	7	16	11	255	357	389	746	133	288	18	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	86	75	17	1	1	2	9	26	2	2	0	227	326	347	672	120	301	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	427	368	94	18	2	9	49	77	7	16	11	255	357	389	746	133	288	18	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	531	463	92	17	2	11	57	125	6	10	4	201	297	321	618	121	247	24	11	283	77	-14	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	25%	372	325	66	12	2	8	40	86	4	7	3	205	300	331	631	126	250	23	11	288	81	-8	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	36%	418	366	76	14	2	10	44	96	5	8	3	209	303	339	641	130	253	23	11	291	83	-8	+0	+1	+1	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	43%	466	408	86	16	2	11	49	107	6	9	3	211	304	344	648	133	255	23	11	294	85	-8	+1	+1	+2	+10	0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	47%	485	425	90	17	2	12	51	111	6	9	4	212	305	346	651	134	256	23	11	295	86	-8	+0	+1	+2	+11	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	488	428	91	17	2	12	51	112	6	8	4	213	305	347	651	134	258	23	10	295	86	-8	+0	+1	+2	+11	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	485	427	90	17	2	12	50	113	5	7	3	211	303	342	644	131	256	23	10	292	84	-9	+0	-0	+2	+11	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	475	418	87	16	2	11	49	112	5	5	3	209	300	335	635	127	255	24	10	289	81	-10	-0	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	47%	463	407	83	15	2	10	48	110	5	3	2	205	296	327	623	122	253	24	10	284	78	-12	-0	-1	+2	+10	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	25%	93	82	16	3	0	2	10	22	1	2	1	205	300	332	632	126	250	24	11	288	81	-2	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	36%	151	132	28	5	1	4	16	35	2	3	1	209	303	339	642	130	253	23	11	292	83	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	43%	199	174	37	7	1	5	21	46	2	4	1	211	304	344	648	133	255	23	11	294	85	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	47%	226	197	43	8	1	6	24	52	3	4	2	213	305	347	652	134	256	23	11	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	232	203	44	8	1	6	24	53	3	4	2	213	305	347	652	134	258	23	10	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	234	205	44	8	1	6	24	54	3	3	2	211	303	342	645	131	257	23	10	293	84	-4	-0	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	226	199	42	8	1	5	23	53	2	2	1	209	300	336	636	127	255	23	10	289	81	-5	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	47%	218	192	39	7	1	5	22	52	2	1	1	205	296	327	623	122	253	24	10	284	78	-6	-0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1579	1384	293	54	7	39	164	367	18	23	11	212	303	345	649	134	258	23	10	292	85	-31	+0	+0	+6	+34	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	120	22	3	16	68	151	7	9	5	211	302	344	646	133	256	23	10	292	85	-13	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4375	3826	817	150	20	101	462	999	54	78	38	214	307	342	649	129	260	23	11	294	85	-79	+1	-0	+14	+84	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	121	22	3	15	69	148	8	12	6	213	307	342	649	129	259	23	11	294	85	-13	+0	-0	+2	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 280 PAwOBA .392 → .332 (−60)K% 11.1% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.07%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	12.07%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.39%
Singles /BIP	25.65%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.001	—	23.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.81%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.001	—	5.66%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.001	—	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	2.62%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	2.09%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .392 → .332; ISO .135 → .116; BABIP .332 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 147 PAwOBA .396 → .325 (−72)K% 17.7% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.69%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	23.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.26%
HBP% /PA	1.36%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.12%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.967	×1.012	18.75%
Doubles /BIP	8.42%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.967	×1.012	6.84%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.967	×1.012	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	5.31%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .396 → .325; ISO .231 → .192; BABIP .315 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 86 PAwOBA .352 → .285 (−66)K% 22.1% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.09%	÷0.994	×1.360	—	—	30.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.28%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.81%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.84%
Singles /BIP	27.45%	÷1.029	×0.920	×1.026	×1.015	25.57%
Doubles /BIP	1.96%	÷1.032	×0.830	×1.026	×1.015	1.64%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.026	×1.015	1.86%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷0.898	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.55%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .352 → .285; ISO .129 → .112; BABIP .327 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.7	1,788	42	27	210	299	339	+6	+0	2.0	1.9
/162	664	16	10	+2.4	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Desi Relaford'96-'07 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,347 PA	5.0	3,347	40	81	234*	308*	336*	+18	-13	0.2	1.3
/162	664	8	16	+3.7	-2.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#5Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Sprock (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	199/294/318	119	247	4	4	24%	11%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	42→47	40→45	47→50	52	201/291/303	102	246	6	8	20%	9%	72	-0.7	201/282/330	129	264	13	9	28%	8%	75	-0.5	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jorge Flores 2014 · A	22	45→55	38→30	44→50	48	211/280/306	95	256	4	10	18%	7%	68	-1.0	241/293/306	65	291	2	10	17%	6%	72	-0.7	240/291/294	54	290	2	10	17%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Josh Kasevich 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→40	42→50	49	230/288/315	85	263	4	6	14%	6%	72	-0.7	250/303/321	71	292	5	9	15%	6%	78	-0.3	263/317/325	62	307	3	8	15%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2021 · A	22	47→53	42→45	47→55	45	227/280/331	104	284	9	10	23%	6%	73	-0.6	229/300/329	100	298	8	8	24%	8%	80	-0.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jacob Amaya 2021 · A	22	47	40→45	44→45	52	223/301/324	101	288	7	7	24%	10%	79	-0.2	215/285/332	117	275	12	6	25%	9%	76	-0.4	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕LuJames Groover 2024 · A	22	47→55	40→45	47→40	48	225/287/324	99	261	7	8	16%	6%	74	-0.5	243/309/357	114	287	11	6	18%	8%	90	+0.6	250/320/355	105	298	10	4	18%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Yusniel Díaz 2019 · AA	22	50→54	44→45	42→50	48	245/306/365	120	311	11	10	24%	8%	91	+0.6	216/276/340	124	293	12	6	29%	7%	74	-0.6	203/270/314	111	271	13	9	29%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Steve Tolleson 2007 · A	23	46→53	42→45	44→50	51	223/298/330	106	272	9	9	21%	9%	80	-0.2	242/310/342	100	307	7	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	256/314/373	117	303	10	12	18%	7%	92	+0.6
●Jake Elmore 2009 · A	22	45→55	40	45→55	45	216/278/317	102	283	6	10	25%	7%	69	-0.9	235/306/311	76	287	3	14	18%	8%	78	-0.3	269/342/344	75	321	2	23	15%	9%	97	+0.9
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	43→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	117	278	10	9	21%	6%	81	-0.1	219/292/328	109	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	39→30	48→40	50	207/292/287	80	272	6	7	25%	9%	68	-1.0	226/310/289	63	311	3	5	26%	8%	76	-0.4	233/322/283	50	324	2	2	25%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Jimmy Herron 2019 · A	23	45→48	44→45	41→55	46	221/284/330	109	271	12	6	23%	7%	75	-0.5	197/269/292	95	258	8	14	25%	8%	60	-1.6	228/301/359	131	273	14	24	21%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Victor Castillo 2007 · A	22	44	42→40	41→40	59	213/319/315	102	247	9	5	18%	12%	85	+0.2	225/278/296	71	287	6	5	22%	6%	63	-1.3	237/285/294	56	297	6	3	21%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Sherman Lacrus 2016 · A	22	45	39→30	45→50	50	212/284/298	86	249	6	7	17%	7%	68	-1.0	206/261/289	83	275	5	8	26%	6%	56	-1.9	189/239/259	70	247	5	9	24%	5%	39	-1.0
✕Orlando Mercado 2007 · A	22	43	46→45	42→40	52	217/285/346	128	238	14	3	16%	8%	79	-0.2	224/311/327	103	259	10	3	17%	10%	84	+0.2	231/324/312	81	266	7	1	15%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Michael Paez 2018 · A	23	42→43	43→40	41→40	46	207/286/321	114	270	10	7	26%	8%	74	-0.5	208/274/305	97	264	8	4	23%	7%	65	-1.2	202/266/288	87	251	8	2	22%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Travis Harrison 2015 · A	22	46→50	40	41→45	47	219/293/316	97	298	7	5	27%	8%	75	-0.5	203/285/291	88	289	5	7	29%	8%	66	-1.1	184/273/267	83	270	5	7	31%	9%	55	-1.4
✕Samar Leyva 2017 · AAA	22	45→55	42→40	43→50	40	223/267/325	102	274	10	9	22%	4%	67	-1.1	248/286/338	90	292	6	12	17%	3%	76	-0.4	258/292/355	97	298	6	14	15%	2%	80	-0.1

Ryan Sprock

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps