Braden Osbolt

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1139ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	MIX2 levels	14	10	57	6.59	3.95	17.1%	6.1%	—	K 12.1% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	22	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.73	4.73	16.4%	7.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCIN	4	4	23	4.70	4.63	18.5%	7.5%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCIN	6	6	33	4.57	4.49	19.8%	7.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLucas Long (age 22) · Cha Seung Baek (age 24) · Sergio Mitre (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%16.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	57	263	45	16	7	71%	4.1	12.1%	7.3%	4.8%	3.6%	6.59	4.99	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	57	263	45	16	7	71%	4.1	12.1%	7.3%	4.8%	3.6%	6.59	4.99	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	57	263	45	16	7	71%	4.1	17.1%	6.1%	11.0%	2.7%	6.59	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	198	37	15	6	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	198	39	15	6	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.36	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	44	187	38	14	5	100%	5.5	20.6%	7.3%	13.2%	2.9%	4.35	4.29	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	44	188	39	14	6	100%	6.4	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.26	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	43	183	38	14	5	100%	6.2	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	23	97	18	7	3	100%	5.8	18.5%	7.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.70	4.63	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	33	139	28	10	4	100%	5.5	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.49	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	36	152	31	11	5	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.3%	13.2%	3.2%	4.48	4.42	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	39	165	34	12	5	100%	6.5	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	3.2%	4.43	4.39	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	39	165	34	12	5	100%	6.5	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.43	4.43	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	170	717	146	53	23	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.4%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.08	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	62	27	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.4%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.08	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		14	10	57	263	32	19	9	71%	4.1	12.1%	7.3%	4.8%	3.6%	6.59	4.99	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	917	111	67	33	71%	4.1	12.1%	7.3%	4.8%	3.6%	6.59	4.99	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 31 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.75 (+0.88)K% 16.1% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.06%	—	×0.740	11.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.30%	—	×1.180	8.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Reds · 27 IPFIP 3.90 → 5.25 (+1.34)K% 18.3% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.25%	—	×0.680	12.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Osbolt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	16.4%	7.6%	3.0%	—	4.39	19.6%	12.2%	138	-0.34	—	—	—
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	88
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	88
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	87
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	87
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	86
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	85
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	85
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	85
Zach Lewis R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP-	3.57	14.3%	7.6%	1.3%	.286	4.17	16.3%	5.2%	213	+0.60	3.57	266	84
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	84
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	84
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	84
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	83
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	83
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	83
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	83
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	83
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	83
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	44	19.6%	7.4%	1.15	4.45
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*