Ubert Mejias

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 237 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ASF	26	24	123	4.70	3.60	16.1%	4.7%	—	K 11.9% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.49
2025	24	MIX2 levels	27	0	66	5.18	3.33	17.6%	6.1%	—	K 13.2% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.81
2026	25	MIX3 levels	29	1	79	4.90	3.86	23.7%	5.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 5.4% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	—	—	0	5.02	5.02	13.9%	7.4%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBSF	18	0	19	4.97	4.98	14.8%	7.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBSF	26	0	27	4.98	5.02	15.4%	7.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJosh Roeder (age 26) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24) · Brooks Hall (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%13.9%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	14	11	62	269	56	17	3	79%	4.5	14.2%	7.9%	6.3%	1.5%	3.90	3.74	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	14	11	62	269	56	17	3	79%	4.5	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	1.1%	3.90	2.75	—
2024	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	24	123	528	85	25	12	92%	4.7	11.9%	5.6%	6.3%	3.1%	4.70	4.49	—
2024	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	24	123	528	85	25	12	92%	4.7	11.9%	5.6%	6.3%	3.1%	4.70	4.49	—
2024	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	26	24	123	528	85	25	12	92%	4.7	16.1%	4.7%	11.4%	2.3%	4.70	3.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	66	295	52	18	5	0%	2.4	13.2%	7.3%	5.9%	1.6%	5.18	3.81	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	66	295	52	18	5	0%	2.4	13.2%	7.3%	5.9%	1.6%	5.18	3.81	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	66	295	52	18	5	0%	2.4	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	1.7%	5.18	3.33	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	1	79	337	80	17	13	3%	2.7	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	4.7%	4.90	4.85	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	1	79	337	80	17	13	3%	2.7	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	4.7%	4.90	4.85	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	1	79	337	80	17	13	3%	2.7	23.7%	5.0%	18.7%	3.9%	4.90	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.9%	7.4%	6.5%	3.2%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	53	224	33	17	7	0%	1.0	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	4.98	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	43	0	45	192	29	15	6	0%	1.1	15.4%	7.9%	7.4%	3.3%	4.98	5.02	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	39	0	41	172	27	14	6	0%	1.0	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	3.5%	5.05	5.11	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	12	6	3	0%	1.1	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	4.98	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	26	0	27	114	18	9	4	0%	1.0	15.4%	7.9%	7.4%	3.3%	4.98	5.02	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	19	10	4	0%	1.0	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	3.5%	5.05	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	0	75	315	48	25	11	0%	1.0	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	3.4%	5.00	4.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	129	67	30	0%	1.1	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	3.4%	5.00	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		96	36	330	1429	200	90	41	38%	3.4	14.0%	6.3%	7.7%	2.9%	4.69	4.29	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	22	200	866	121	55	25	38%	3.4	14.0%	6.3%	7.7%	2.9%	4.69	4.29	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 36 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.50 (+1.13)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.09%	—	×0.770	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.13%	—	×1.150	7.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 40 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.18 (+1.13)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.31%	—	×0.740	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.09%	—	×1.180	3.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.01%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 65 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.81 (+0.49)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.87%	—	×0.740	13.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.180	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.358	×1.300	1.64%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 123 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.49 (+0.91)K% 16.1% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.10%	—	×0.740	11.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.73%	—	×1.180	5.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.959	×1.300	3.08%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Black · 62 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.74 (+0.98)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.82%	—	×0.680	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.250	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.031	×1.400	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ubert Mejias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	13.9%	7.4%	3.2%	—	5.03	15.2%	7.3%	139	+0.01	—	—	—
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	88
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	86
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	84
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	83
Kolton Mahoney R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	26	SW	3.93	13.8%	5.6%	2.3%	.328	3.56	19.4%	10.6%	109	-0.37	3.56	302	82
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	82
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	82
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	81
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	80
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	14.8%	7.7%	1.28	5.00
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*