Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 14 | 11 | 62 | 269 | 56 | 17 | 3 | 79% | 4.5 | 14.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 3.90 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 14 | 11 | 62 | 269 | 56 | 17 | 3 | 79% | 4.5 | 20.8% | 6.3% | 14.5% | 1.1% | 3.90 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 24 | 123 | 528 | 85 | 25 | 12 | 92% | 4.7 | 11.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.57 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 24 | 123 | 528 | 85 | 25 | 12 | 92% | 4.7 | 16.1% | 4.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 66 | 295 | 52 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 2.4 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 5.18 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 66 | 295 | 52 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 2.4 | 17.6% | 6.1% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 5.18 | 3.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 20 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 60 | 9 | 10 | 0% | 2.8 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 4.63 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 126 | 537 | 93 | 34 | 18 | — | — | 17.3% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.08 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 123 | 521 | 74 | 45 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.60 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 120 | 73 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 35 | 307 | 1333 | 185 | 83 | 38 | 40% | 3.5 | 13.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.26 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 23 | 200 | 867 | 120 | 54 | 24 | 40% | 3.5 | 13.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ubert Mejias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.98 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 206 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 84 |
| Drasen Johnson R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 110 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.97 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 183 | +0.73 | 3.41 | 390 | 81 |
| Marco Camarena R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 80 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 80 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 11.7% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 266 | 80 |
| Brad Allen R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 80 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 79 |
| Raymar Navarro R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.2% | .332 | 4.29 | 11.8% | 1.0% | 41 | +0.17 | 4.12 | 108 | 79 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 79 |
| Blake McKnight R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 7.0% | 10.8% | 1.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 9.5% | 0.1% | 39 | +0.16 | 3.25 | 225 | 78 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 78 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 78 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 77 |
| Abel Amaya R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | .264 | 6.31 | 8.5% | 5.1% | 12 | +2.06 | 4.25 | 109 | 77 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 77 |
| John Kuchno R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 10.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 162 | 77 |
| Daury Torrez R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 12.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 356 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 13.3% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 5.03 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |