Ubert Mejias
P
San Jose Giants
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 237 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%10.7%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 14 | 11 | 62 | 269 | 56 | 17 | 3 | 14.2% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 3.90 | 3.73 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 24 | 123 | 528 | 85 | 25 | 12 | 11.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 27 | 0 | 66 | 295 | 52 | 18 | 5 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 5.18 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | San Jose Giants | 2 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.69 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 65 | 28 | 10 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 87 | 368 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.19 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 74 | 30 | 11 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.39 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 77 | 31 | 11 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 78 | 31 | 11 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 76 | 31 | 11 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 69 | 30 | 11 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 66 | 29 | 11 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 68 | 26 | 11 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 64 | 25 | 10 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 59 | 24 | 10 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 35 | 256 | 1114 | 144 | 75 | 26 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.12 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 27 | 200 | 869 | 112 | 59 | 20 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ubert Mejias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.40 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 274 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 93 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 93 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 92 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 91 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 91 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 90 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 89 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 88 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 88 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 88 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 88 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 87 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 87 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .250 | 3.69 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.21 | 2.21 | 385 | 86 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $13M | +$9M | ||