J.P. Cabrera — OGILVIE

J.P. CabreraC FCL Cardinals

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 78 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .267 / .279

PA78

HR1

K%27

BB%8

BABIP262

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$36M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	79	70	13	0	1	0	8	21	1	0	0	186	278	214	493	29	265	27	10	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	79	64	15	0	1	0	14	14	1	0	0	234	380	266	645	31	300	18	18	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	104	91	16	4	1	1	9	27	4	2	0	176	279	275	554	99	238	26	9	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	104	85	21	5	1	2	15	17	4	2	0	247	385	400	785	153	288	16	14	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	STL	—	118	104	21	7	0	1	8	32	3	3	0	202	278	298	576	96	270	27	7	248	48	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
YTD	19	ROK	STL	—	118	95	25	9	0	1	13	22	3	3	0	263	357	389	746	126	320	19	11	326	108	+1	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.7
ROS	19	ROK	STL	0%	78	71	14	3	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	195	267	279	546	84	281	27	8	268	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	19	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		281	—	—	256	54	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	STL	—	118	105	21	7	0	1	8	32	3	3	0	200	278	295	573	95	267	27	7	248	48	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK	STL	—	196	175	35	10	0	2	14	53	4	4	0	199	274	290	564	91	267	27	7	256	54	-10	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	STL	34%	233	210	44	9	1	3	18	60	3	4	1	210	281	305	586	95	281	26	8	276	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2028	21	MLB	STL	48%	358	322	71	15	2	6	28	90	5	6	2	220	293	335	628	115	283	25	8	283	75	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2029	22	MLB	STL	54%	446	401	88	18	2	8	35	111	7	8	2	219	293	334	628	115	284	25	8	288	79	-11	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2030	23	MLB	STL	57%	504	451	103	21	3	10	40	124	8	9	2	228	303	355	657	126	285	25	8	291	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2031	24	MLB	STL	57%	520	465	105	21	3	10	42	128	8	10	2	226	301	348	649	123	286	25	8	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2032	25	MLB	STL	57%	520	465	105	21	3	10	42	128	8	10	2	226	301	348	649	123	286	25	8	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	26	MLB	STL	56%	520	465	105	21	3	10	42	128	8	10	2	226	301	348	649	123	286	25	8	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2034	27	MLB	STL	55%	520	465	105	21	3	10	42	128	8	10	2	226	301	348	649	123	286	25	8	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2035	28	MLB	STL	55%	520	464	104	21	3	10	43	129	8	10	2	224	301	347	648	123	285	25	8	293	82	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2036	29	MLB	STL	58%	520	464	104	21	3	10	43	130	8	9	2	224	301	347	648	123	284	25	8	291	81	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2037	30	MLB	STL	60%	520	464	103	21	2	10	43	131	8	9	2	222	299	341	640	119	283	25	8	288	79	-13	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2038	31	MLB	STL	62%	504	450	98	20	2	9	42	128	7	8	2	218	295	331	626	113	281	25	8	284	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2039	32	MLB	STL	63%	489	439	93	19	2	8	40	127	7	8	2	212	288	319	607	107	277	26	8	278	71	-16	+1	-4	+9	+14	0.4
2040	33	MLB	STL	63%	448	402	83	16	2	7	37	118	6	7	2	206	283	308	592	102	273	26	8	271	66	-17	+1	-4	+8	+13	-0.0
2041	34	MLB	STL	59%	392	352	71	13	2	6	32	106	5	6	1	202	278	301	579	99	267	27	8	263	59	-18	+1	-5	+7	+11	-0.4
2027	20	MLB	STL	34%	80	73	15	3	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	205	275	288	563	82	281	25	8	265	61	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	21	MLB	STL	48%	173	154	34	7	1	3	14	43	3	3	1	221	298	338	636	117	283	25	8	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2029	22	MLB	STL	54%	242	217	48	10	1	4	19	60	4	4	1	221	296	332	628	111	284	25	8	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2030	23	MLB	STL	57%	285	256	58	12	2	5	23	70	4	5	1	227	300	348	648	121	285	25	8	280	72	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	24	MLB	STL	57%	294	265	60	12	2	6	23	72	4	5	1	226	298	355	653	128	286	24	8	281	74	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	25	MLB	STL	57%	294	264	60	12	2	6	24	72	4	6	1	227	301	356	657	129	286	24	8	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	26	MLB	STL	56%	294	264	60	12	2	6	24	72	4	6	1	227	301	356	657	129	286	24	8	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	27	MLB	STL	55%	288	258	59	12	2	6	24	71	4	5	1	229	304	360	665	132	286	25	8	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2035	28	MLB	STL	55%	285	256	58	12	1	6	23	70	4	5	1	227	300	352	652	125	285	25	8	281	74	-9	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2036	29	MLB	STL	58%	302	269	60	12	1	6	25	75	5	5	1	223	301	342	643	119	284	25	8	280	72	-10	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.4
2037	30	MLB	STL	60%	313	279	61	12	1	6	26	79	5	5	1	219	297	333	630	115	283	25	8	277	70	-11	+1	-1	+6	+9	0.3
2038	31	MLB	STL	62%	311	277	60	12	1	6	26	79	5	5	1	217	295	332	628	116	281	25	8	273	67	-12	+1	-2	+6	+9	0.2
2039	32	MLB	STL	63%	307	275	58	12	1	5	25	79	4	5	1	211	286	316	603	105	277	26	8	267	63	-13	+1	-2	+5	+9	-0.0
2040	33	MLB	STL	63%	284	255	52	10	1	4	23	75	4	4	1	204	280	298	578	94	273	26	8	261	58	-14	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.3
2041	34	MLB	STL	59%	231	207	42	8	1	3	19	62	3	3	1	203	279	295	574	92	267	27	8	253	51	-13	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3983	3570	785	158	19	73	324	999	58	67	14	220	295	336	632	116	283	25	8	275	69	-141	+8	-12	+71	+113	4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	128	26	3	12	53	163	9	11	2	220	295	336	631	117	282	25	8	275	69	-23	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	7275	6511	1425	285	38	129	592	1835	110	127	28	219	295	334	629	115	283	25	8	285	76	-196	+14	-20	+130	+206	13.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	127	25	3	12	53	164	10	11	3	218	295	333	628	115	281	25	8	285	76	-18	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	79	64	15	0	1	0	14	14	1	0	0	234	380	266	645	31	300	18	18	314	98	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	104	85	21	5	1	2	15	17	4	2	0	247	385	400	785	153	288	16	14	359	133	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,101	74	72	221	293	338	+73	+36	8.2	7.0
	/162	664	12	12	221	293	338	+11.9	+5.8	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.P. Cabrera (OGILVIE)	19	42→47	33→38	45→50	55	199/274/290	91	267	2	4	27%	7%	54	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	235/300/339	104	298	6	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→46	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	59	-1.1	225/302/319	94	296	6	8	24%	10%	76	+0.0	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	50	-1.7	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	63	-0.9	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2016 · A	19	48	37→45	45	42	225/275/299	74	289	4	8	23%	5%	59	-1.1	217/266/307	90	280	7	7	24%	5%	57	-1.2	239/291/347	108	285	8	8	18%	4%	78	+0.1
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	42	41→45	48→40	42	201/285/303	102	283	9	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	214/290/334	120	285	13	5	28%	8%	76	+0.0	213/279/330	117	277	14	2	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→42	43→50	47→45	50	230/306/345	115	283	9	10	21%	8%	85	+0.7	221/273/345	124	289	14	8	27%	6%	70	-0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	59	-1.1	239/285/329	90	301	8	17	22%	5%	70	-0.3	252/302/359	107	305	10	17	20%	6%	82	+0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	216/278/319	103	302	7	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	198/267/295	97	299	7	13	33%	8%	55	-1.4	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2018 · A	19	48	40	49→45	45	232/284/331	99	286	7	5	21%	6%	71	-0.3	212/263/280	68	261	4	4	19%	6%	48	-1.9	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	48→54	40→45	49→45	43	230/278/337	107	296	5	6	23%	6%	69	-0.4	232/265/329	97	295	7	4	23%	4%	62	-0.9	250/302/398	148	300	16	7	22%	5%	93	+0.5
✕Dariel Lopez 2021 · A	19	47→50	39→45	50→45	42	225/279/315	90	296	5	8	25%	6%	64	-0.8	226/270/320	94	336	9	4	34%	5%	62	-0.9	227/269/320	93	338	10	3	34%	4%	58	-0.8
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Cristian Inoa 2018 · A	19	44→43	39→45	51→45	46	211/281/297	86	269	5	12	23%	7%	61	-1.0	208/280/291	83	281	4	8	25%	8%	59	-1.1	222/273/340	119	270	12	5	22%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→51	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	209/280/297	88	296	5	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	54	195/298/259	64	275	4	8	28%	12%	60	-1.0	196/296/284	88	277	8	5	29%	11%	66	-0.6	173/283/253	79	246	9	2	30%	12%	51	-0.6