J.P. Cabrera — OGILVIE

J.P. CabreraC FCL Cardinals

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION236 act + 22 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .227 / .238

PA22

HR0

K%27

BB%5

BABIP275

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	79	64	15	0	1	0	14	14	1	0	0	234	380	266	645	31	300	18	18	314	98	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	104	85	21	5	1	2	15	17	4	2	0	247	385	400	785	153	288	16	14	359	129	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	79	70	13	0	1	0	8	20	1	0	0	186	278	214	493	29	255	25	10	227	40	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	104	91	16	4	1	1	9	25	4	2	0	176	279	275	554	99	224	24	9	249	55	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	79	70	13	0	1	0	8	20	1	0	0	186	278	214	493	29	260	25	10	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	79	64	15	0	1	0	14	14	1	0	0	234	380	266	645	31	300	18	18	314	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	104	91	16	4	1	1	9	25	4	2	0	176	279	275	554	99	231	24	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	104	85	21	5	1	2	15	17	4	2	0	247	385	400	785	153	288	16	14	359	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	79	70	13	0	1	0	8	20	1	0	0	186	278	214	493	29	255	25	10	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	104	90	16	4	1	1	9	25	4	2	0	178	279	278	557	100	224	24	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	79	70	13	0	1	0	8	20	1	0	0	186	278	214	493	29	255	25	10	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	104	90	16	4	1	1	9	25	4	2	0	178	279	278	557	100	224	24	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	STL	—	236	216	41	12	0	2	13	69	4	4	0	190	249	273	522	83	264	29	6	230	42	-16	+1	+0	+4	+5	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	STL	—	136	113	29	9	0	1	13	26	3	3	0	257	338	363	701	106	315	19	10	310	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A RAW	STL	—	100	89	19	6	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	213	270	315	585	101	273	22	7	263	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	STL	0%	22	21	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	190	227	238	465	48	276	27	5	259	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	STL	—	258	237	45	13	0	2	14	75	4	4	0	190	247	270	517	80	264	29	5	233	44	-17	+1	+0	+5	+6	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	34%	285	259	54	12	1	4	20	75	4	4	1	208	276	309	584	100	278	26	7	270	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	48%	398	360	78	17	2	7	29	102	6	7	1	217	286	333	619	117	280	26	7	279	75	-12	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	54%	475	430	94	20	2	9	35	120	7	8	2	219	288	337	625	119	281	25	7	285	79	-12	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	469	104	22	2	11	39	130	7	9	2	222	291	348	639	126	282	25	8	288	81	-12	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	469	105	22	2	11	39	130	7	10	2	224	293	350	643	126	283	25	8	290	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	469	105	22	2	11	39	129	7	10	2	224	293	350	643	126	283	25	8	291	83	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	520	469	104	22	2	11	39	129	7	10	2	222	291	348	639	126	283	25	8	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	520	468	104	22	2	11	40	130	7	10	2	222	293	348	641	126	283	25	8	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	520	467	104	22	2	11	41	130	7	10	2	223	295	349	644	126	282	25	8	290	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	58%	520	467	104	22	2	11	41	131	7	9	2	223	295	349	644	126	281	25	8	288	81	-12	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	60%	520	467	102	22	2	10	41	133	7	9	2	218	291	338	630	120	280	26	8	285	79	-13	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	STL	62%	504	452	99	21	2	10	40	130	7	8	2	219	293	341	633	122	278	26	8	281	76	-14	+1	-3	+9	+11	0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	STL	63%	489	441	93	19	2	9	38	128	7	8	2	211	284	324	608	113	274	26	8	276	73	-16	+1	-4	+9	+11	0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	STL	63%	448	404	83	17	1	8	35	120	6	7	1	205	279	312	591	106	270	27	8	269	68	-17	+1	-4	+8	+10	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	STL	34%	98	90	18	4	0	1	7	26	1	2	0	200	265	278	543	78	277	27	7	258	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	48%	193	174	37	8	1	3	14	50	3	3	1	213	283	322	605	109	279	26	7	266	75	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	54%	258	233	51	11	1	5	19	65	4	5	1	219	289	339	628	120	281	25	7	271	79	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	57%	294	266	59	13	1	6	22	74	4	5	1	222	291	346	637	124	282	25	7	275	81	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	294	266	59	13	1	6	22	73	4	5	1	222	291	346	637	124	282	25	7	276	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	294	266	59	13	1	6	22	73	4	5	1	222	291	346	637	124	282	25	7	277	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	294	266	59	13	1	6	22	73	4	6	1	222	291	346	637	124	282	25	7	277	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	288	260	57	12	1	6	22	72	4	5	1	219	290	342	633	123	282	25	8	277	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	285	257	57	12	1	6	22	71	4	5	1	222	293	346	640	125	281	25	8	276	82	-6	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	58%	302	271	60	13	1	6	24	76	4	5	1	221	294	343	637	122	281	25	8	275	81	-7	+1	-1	+5	+7	0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	60%	313	281	61	13	1	6	25	80	4	5	1	217	290	335	625	117	279	26	8	272	79	-8	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	STL	62%	311	280	61	13	1	6	24	80	4	5	1	218	289	336	625	118	277	26	8	268	76	-9	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.2
2039	32	MLB CTX	STL	63%	307	276	58	12	1	5	24	80	4	5	1	210	283	315	598	105	274	26	8	263	73	-10	+1	-2	+5	+7	0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	STL	63%	284	256	52	11	1	4	22	76	4	4	1	203	277	301	577	98	269	27	8	256	68	-11	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3815	3442	748	161	13	72	291	969	52	65	13	217	288	334	623	117	280	25	8	271	78	-96	+8	-9	+68	+83	5.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	127	27	2	12	50	165	9	11	2	217	288	331	619	114	279	25	8	271	78	-16	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6964	6273	1366	287	28	135	534	1768	98	121	25	218	289	337	626	119	279	25	8	283	78	-172	+14	-15	+121	+147	9.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	128	27	3	13	50	165	9	11	2	218	290	341	631	123	280	25	8	283	78	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	3,958	77	69	220	288	341	+71	+36	8.5	7.1
/162	664	13	12	+11.9	+6.0	1.4	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.P. Cabrera (OGILVIE)	19	40→45	33→38	45→50	52	204/268/297	93	276	2	2	27%	7%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	42	41→45	48→40	42	201/285/303	102	283	9	11	30%	7%	70	-0.8	215/292/337	122	284	13	5	27%	8%	80	-0.2	215/282/336	121	275	14	2	26%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	76	-0.4	235/301/339	104	297	6	12	21%	8%	82	+0.0	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	44→48	42→45	50→55	49	212/297/322	110	288	9	12	28%	10%	78	-0.3	220/281/338	118	321	11	16	33%	7%	75	-0.5	235/283/350	115	329	10	23	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→45	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	64	-1.3	223/301/315	92	295	6	8	24%	10%	77	-0.3	207/279/322	115	260	13	5	25%	9%	69	-0.8
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	47→45	42→50	47→45	49	229/304/342	113	282	9	10	21%	8%	85	+0.2	224/276/345	121	286	13	8	26%	6%	74	-0.5	222/278/352	130	268	15	6	23%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2018 · A	19	48	40	49→45	45	232/284/331	99	286	7	5	21%	6%	74	-0.5	211/261/279	68	260	4	4	19%	6%	53	-2.1	220/282/315	95	243	11	8	14%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Oswaldo Linares 2023 · A	20	42	41→40	48→40	52	203/299/295	93	261	9	6	24%	10%	74	-0.6	189/286/270	81	279	7	4	31%	11%	63	-1.4	163/267/230	67	248	6	2	33%	11%	45	-1.0
✕Seth Conner 2012 · A	20	44	41→40	47→45	47	211/285/309	98	278	8	6	26%	8%	70	-0.8	203/274/278	75	282	5	4	27%	7%	59	-1.6	185/263/242	57	258	3	0	27%	7%	48	-0.7
✕Arturo De Freitas 2021 · A	20	45	40→45	49→40	45	213/288/309	96	295	6	7	28%	8%	72	-0.7	180/233/251	71	285	5	4	36%	5%	37	-3.3	143/191/216	73	246	8	0	44%	5%	11	-1.5
✕Dariel Lopez 2021 · A	19	47→48	39→45	50→45	42	225/279/315	90	296	5	8	25%	6%	68	-1.0	224/271/327	103	329	11	4	34%	5%	69	-0.9	224/269/327	103	329	12	3	34%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Rodney Daal 2013 · A	19	44	40→45	49→45	44	210/276/313	103	289	6	7	28%	7%	68	-1.0	214/260/329	115	285	12	7	28%	5%	65	-1.2	209/246/323	114	266	14	7	27%	3%	55	-1.0
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	69	-0.9	213/293/326	113	268	10	14	23%	8%	78	-0.3	212/279/323	110	272	10	12	25%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→46	41→50	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	68	-1.0	209/282/325	116	301	11	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	216/278/319	103	302	7	11	30%	7%	70	-0.9	198/267/295	97	299	7	13	33%	8%	60	-1.6	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Cam Maron 2010 · A	19	46→56	40	50→40	47	222/289/316	94	291	7	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	241/308/328	87	308	7	5	22%	8%	82	+0.0	248/318/312	64	318	4	2	21%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2016 · A	19	48	37→45	45	42	225/275/299	74	289	4	8	23%	5%	63	-1.3	217/266/307	90	280	7	7	24%	5%	62	-1.4	239/291/347	108	285	8	8	18%	4%	80	-0.0
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	68	-1.0	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	85	+0.2	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Edgardo Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	48	41→45	48→30	43	233/283/334	102	283	8	5	21%	5%	75	-0.5	202/244/277	75	298	6	5	33%	5%	47	-2.6	180/204/231	51	260	9	0	34%	2%	21	-0.8
✕Josue Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	45	40→45	48→50	46	211/290/305	94	303	6	7	30%	9%	72	-0.7	198/299/303	105	268	8	10	27%	10%	76	-0.4	163/274/267	105	220	10	12	28%	10%	59	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps