J.T. Etheridge

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	9	5	41	5.53	2.68	30.1%	12.4%	—	K 21.6% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.08
2026	24	ANYY	20	13	71	5.17	2.89	32.1%	11.9%	—	K 23.8% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	7	7	43	4.84	4.84	23.2%	13.7%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBNYY	4	4	27	4.77	4.76	23.4%	13.2%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	7	7	40	4.76	4.77	23.4%	13.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%23.2%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	21.6%	14.9%	6.7%	1.7%	5.53	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	21.6%	14.9%	6.7%	1.7%	5.53	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	41	186	56	23	2	56%	4.5	30.1%	12.4%	17.7%	1.1%	5.53	2.68	—
2026	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.4%	5.17	4.19	—
2026	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.4%	5.17	4.19	—
2026	24	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	20	13	71	327	105	39	6	65%	3.6	32.1%	11.9%	20.2%	1.8%	5.17	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	7	7	43	182	42	25	5	100%	6.1	23.2%	13.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	271	63	36	8	100%	5.8	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	63	267	62	35	8	100%	5.7	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.77	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	27	114	27	15	3	100%	6.8	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.76	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	40	169	39	22	5	100%	5.7	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	67	283	66	37	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.39	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	110	24	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		29	18	112	513	118	74	11	62%	3.9	23.0%	14.4%	8.6%	2.1%	5.30	4.15	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	32	200	916	210	132	19	62%	3.9	23.0%	14.4%	8.6%	2.1%	5.30	4.15	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Etheridge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	23.2%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.76	23.4%	10.2%	127	-0.08	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	84
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	81
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	81
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	78
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	77
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	76
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	75
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	75
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	74
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	23.3%	13.3%	1.12	4.78
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82