Sam Garcia
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 218 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2029
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%10.4%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 15 | 101 | 438 | 107 | 48 | 15 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 90 | 45 | 14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 105 | 444 | 97 | 48 | 14 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 104 | 48 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 111 | 50 | 16 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 114 | 51 | 17 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 526 | 114 | 51 | 17 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 111 | 50 | 17 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 107 | 49 | 16 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 102 | 48 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 96 | 46 | 16 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 45 | 16 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 85 | 44 | 15 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 78 | 42 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.22 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 72 | 40 | 14 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 15 | 105 | 456 | 88 | 59 | 16 | 19.3% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 5.02 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 29 | 200 | 869 | 168 | 112 | 30 | 19.3% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 5.02 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.63 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 360 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 93 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 91 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 90 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 88 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 99 | -1.40 | 3.39 | 448 | 87 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 87 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 86 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 86 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 4.0% | .308 | 3.13 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 59 | -2.20 | 2.89 | 400 | 85 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .295 | 2.85 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 16 | -1.02 | 2.85 | 221 | 84 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 84 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 84 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.39 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .326 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 13 | -0.44 | 2.69 | 255 | 84 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 83 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 223 | 83 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 83 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.43 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.6% | .296 | 4.32 | 14.3% | 2.8% | 69 | -1.11 | 4.32 | 236 | 83 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 82 |
| Tommy Henry L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.12 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .327 | 4.53 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 417 | -0.59 | 4.43 | 587 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $6M | $31M | +$25M | ||