Sam Garcia — OGILVIE

Sam Garcia P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 218 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%17.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	3.5%	4.37	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	3.5%	4.37	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.37	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	1.4%	5.21	3.62	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	1.4%	5.21	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIL	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	29.5%	12.7%	16.8%	1.2%	5.21	2.86	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	44	198	55	25	3	—	—	27.9%	12.8%	15.1%	1.4%	5.25	3.87	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	88	0	92	388	70	48	12	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	3.1%	5.29	5.24	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	88	0	92	388	72	46	12	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.1%	5.17	5.14	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	86	0	91	383	72	45	12	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.8%	7.0%	3.2%	5.13	5.13	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	84	0	88	371	69	44	12	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.3%	5.16	5.20	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	80	0	84	354	65	43	12	0%	1.0	18.5%	12.1%	6.4%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	75	0	79	333	67	39	12	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	5.24	5.23	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	38	0	40	169	31	21	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	3.1%	5.29	5.24	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	49	31	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.1%	5.17	5.14	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	67	0	70	296	55	35	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.8%	7.0%	3.2%	5.13	5.13	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	70	0	74	312	58	37	10	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.3%	5.16	5.20	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	70	0	74	312	58	38	11	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.1%	6.4%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	68	0	71	300	60	35	11	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	5.24	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		372	0	391	1650	311	196	55	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.9%	7.0%	3.3%	5.20	4.83	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	100	28	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.9%	7.0%	3.3%	5.20	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		52	16	139	611	122	80	18	31%	2.7	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	879	176	115	25	31%	2.7	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	17.2%	13.6%	3.2%	—	5.17	18.5%	6.5%	275	-0.32	—	—	—
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	87
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	85
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	79
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	79
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	78
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	77
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	77
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	77
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	76
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	76
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	76
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	76
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	75
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	75
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	75
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	74
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	74
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	18.6%	12.1%	1.27	5.24
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39