Player 822191 — OGILVIE

Player 8221911B DSL Arizona Black

Age — —/— ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION188 act + 25 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .280 / .227

PA25

HR0

K%28

BB%8

BABIP299

ISO45

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	—	ROK MLE	ARI	—	188	150	32	6	2	2	20	49	16	31	6	213	366	320	686	107	300	26	11	309	95	-1	+4	+0	-3	+4	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	—	ROK RAW	ARI	—	188	138	39	8	3	3	32	34	16	31	6	283	468	449	917	167	353	18	17	415	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	—	ROK MLE	ARI	0%	25	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	1	2	0	182	280	227	507	45	292	28	8	293	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
TOT	—	ROK MLE	ARI	—	213	172	36	7	2	2	22	56	17	33	6	209	355	308	664	99	296	26	10	307	94	-2	+4	+0	-4	+5	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	315	272	59	11	3	5	29	85	11	14	2	217	317	335	652	118	291	27	9	295	86	-5	+2	+0	-6	+7	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	408	355	77	14	4	7	37	109	13	17	3	217	314	338	652	121	291	27	9	299	88	-6	+2	+0	-7	+9	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	470	409	89	16	4	9	43	125	15	20	3	218	315	342	657	125	290	27	9	301	90	-6	+3	+0	-8	+10	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	513	445	99	18	5	10	47	135	16	21	3	222	319	353	672	130	290	26	9	303	91	-5	+3	+0	-9	+11	-0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	543	471	105	19	5	11	50	143	17	22	3	223	320	355	674	132	290	26	9	304	92	-5	+3	+0	-10	+12	0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	564	489	109	20	5	12	52	149	18	23	3	223	320	358	678	135	290	26	9	305	93	-5	+3	+0	-10	+12	0.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	580	504	111	20	5	12	53	153	18	24	4	220	317	351	668	131	290	26	9	306	93	-5	+3	+0	-10	+13	0.1
2034	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	592	514	114	20	5	13	54	156	19	24	4	222	319	356	675	134	289	26	9	307	94	-4	+3	+0	-11	+13	0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	298	—	—	274	86	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	298	—	—	278	88	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	297	—	—	281	90	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	297	—	—	283	91	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	297	—	—	284	92	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	297	—	—	285	93	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2033	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	296	—	—	286	93	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2034	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	296	—	—	287	94	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	4010	3481	767	139	36	79	367	1062	128	167	25	220	317	349	666	129	291	26	9	303	91	-41	+23	+0	-72	+87	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	125	23	6	13	59	172	21	27	4	222	318	353	671	131	293	26	9	303	91	-7	+4	+0	-12	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.5	4,297	83	178	221	314	347	-48	+0	5.2	5.2
/162	664	13	27	-7.5	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Player 822191 (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	208/317/309	101	292	4	25	28%	9%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Dean 2021 · A	24	47→49	42→45	58→65	44	222/293/331	108	316	8	23	30%	8%	78	-0.3	203/281/302	99	319	8	27	36%	8%	68	-1.0	212/292/295	83	324	7	47	34%	9%	67	-0.7
✕Nate Eaton 2022 · A	25	40→50	40→45	55→60	43	197/264/288	91	273	7	19	29%	7%	57	-1.8	216/270/336	120	285	13	28	28%	6%	71	-0.8	213/270/337	124	278	12	27	27%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Allen Córdoba 2021 · A	25	47→52	40→45	53→55	40	228/277/321	93	297	7	20	25%	5%	70	-0.9	229/299/337	108	283	9	16	21%	6%	82	+0.0	227/303/337	110	275	9	18	20%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Dylan Moore 2017 · A	24	44→48	44→50	54→65	47	216/295/339	123	274	11	23	24%	8%	81	-0.1	209/275/329	120	265	11	18	25%	7%	71	-0.8	207/330/379	172	285	16	41	30%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Jonathan Davis 2017 · A	25	42→52	46→45	55	45	207/293/340	133	287	12	21	30%	8%	81	-0.1	221/300/334	113	289	9	19	25%	8%	82	-0.0	221/304/328	106	311	9	22	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Sam Haggerty 2018 · A	24	43	38→50	58→65	45	203/270/293	90	292	4	25	30%	8%	60	-1.6	222/300/330	108	316	6	28	29%	9%	80	-0.1	252/331/392	139	317	11	42	22%	9%	102	+0.8
✕Mario Lisson 2008 · A	24	47→49	42→50	52→55	43	226/287/335	108	297	9	19	26%	6%	76	-0.4	206/252/317	111	266	11	17	26%	5%	59	-1.6	230/303/360	129	300	15	8	27%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→48	42→45	56→65	42	222/289/334	112	305	9	24	29%	7%	78	-0.3	221/279/318	97	306	7	25	28%	6%	70	-0.9	223/290/349	126	282	12	55	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Shawn Payne 2014 · A	25	47→57	40	56→55	48	225/296/321	96	287	6	24	23%	8%	77	-0.3	213/283/315	102	293	7	16	28%	8%	71	-0.8	203/278/305	103	285	7	17	29%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Phillip Ervin 2017 · AA	25	42→51	44→50	55	48	207/286/327	120	254	12	25	23%	8%	76	-0.4	228/295/356	128	288	12	22	24%	7%	84	+0.2	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Ryan LaMarre 2014 · AA	25	47→52	39→45	52→60	45	227/288/313	86	291	7	23	24%	6%	72	-0.7	219/273/317	98	296	9	17	28%	6%	67	-1.1	236/307/362	126	336	11	23	31%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Dairon Blanco 2019 · A	26	51	37→45	61→70	41	236/281/322	85	322	3	20	27%	5%	70	-0.9	217/266/326	109	313	8	27	31%	6%	66	-1.1	267/328/397	130	350	13	90	26%	6%	104	+0.8
✕Lane Adams 2015 · AA	25	46	43→45	57→60	43	224/279/338	114	287	10	27	25%	6%	74	-0.5	228/281/349	121	306	12	31	28%	6%	77	-0.3	227/280/350	123	310	14	36	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Niko Decolati 2023 · AA	25	44→46	40→45	54→55	43	211/279/301	90	305	8	21	32%	8%	66	-1.1	209/301/293	84	310	6	16	31%	9%	74	-0.6	200/314/273	73	296	5	18	30%	11%	72	-0.4
✕Jon Matthews 2015 · A	24	52	37→40	55→60	44	241/301/318	77	324	5	22	26%	6%	77	-0.3	220/291/289	69	301	4	12	26%	8%	68	-1.0	171/266/197	25	238	0	6	25%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Cade Gotta 2017 · AA	25	46→52	42→45	56→55	42	225/269/333	108	283	8	21	23%	5%	69	-0.9	238/291/337	99	302	6	29	22%	7%	78	-0.3	244/303/339	95	309	5	36	21%	8%	81	-0.0
✕José Caballero 2021 · A	24	46	41→45	52→70	47	220/294/324	104	280	8	25	24%	8%	77	-0.3	221/324/338	117	285	11	35	24%	11%	93	+0.8	225/318/339	113	300	10	63	26%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Niko Goodrum 2017 · AA	25	43→53	41→55	56→55	43	208/270/312	104	295	8	21	31%	7%	65	-1.2	229/283/372	143	310	14	14	29%	7%	84	+0.1	240/314/421	180	324	18	16	30%	9%	104	+1.0
●Alonzo Harris 2013 · A	24	48→52	40→50	55→60	43	230/275/324	95	288	7	21	22%	5%	69	-0.9	212/263/299	87	280	6	22	25%	6%	59	-1.7	235/293/404	169	279	20	36	23%	7%	93	+0.7
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	46→48	40→45	59→60	44	218/292/312	94	289	7	32	26%	7%	74	-0.5	225/316/336	111	307	10	25	28%	9%	88	+0.5	221/319/328	107	303	11	22	28%	10%	86	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps