Joscar Hernandez

OF DSL Arizona Black

Age 18 R/R ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1236ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Arizona B…	188	.283/.468/.449	3	31	80	—	.189/.355/.291
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBARI	298	.216/.306/.309	3	12	78	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBARI	52	.228/.318/.338	1	2	83	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBARI	126	.232/.322/.350	2	5	87	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed98

wOBA89

wRC+86

ISO72

Whiff%72

Chase%71

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEury Pérez (age 19) · Jahmai Jones (age 18) · Manuel Margot (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .304 / .306

PA98

HR1

K%25

BB%9

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	138	39	8	3	3	32	34	16	31	6	283	468	449	917	167	353	18	17	415	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	148	28	5	2	2	22	42	16	31	6	189	355	291	645	101	239	22	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	148	28	5	2	2	22	42	16	31	6	189	355	291	645	101	248	22	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	138	39	8	3	3	32	34	16	31	6	283	468	449	917	167	353	18	17	415	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	148	28	5	2	2	22	42	16	31	6	189	355	291	645	101	239	22	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	188	148	28	5	2	2	22	42	16	31	6	189	355	291	645	101	239	22	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	298	262	57	10	3	3	26	74	8	12	1	216	306	309	615	92	288	25	9	283	78	-8	+2	+0	-2	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	151	133	30	5	2	2	13	37	4	6	1	221	312	322	634	102	290	25	9	291	83	-3	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	261	228	52	9	3	4	23	63	8	11	2	225	316	335	650	110	292	24	9	297	87	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	380	333	76	13	4	6	33	92	11	16	3	228	318	345	664	117	293	24	9	302	90	-4	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.4
2031	22	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	462	405	92	16	4	8	41	110	13	19	3	231	320	354	674	123	294	24	9	306	93	-4	+3	+0	-3	+10	0.6
2032	23	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	517	453	105	18	5	10	45	123	14	21	4	233	322	361	683	128	294	24	9	309	95	-3	+3	+0	-3	+11	0.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	555	486	114	20	5	11	49	132	15	23	4	234	323	365	689	131	295	24	9	311	97	-2	+3	+0	-3	+12	1.0
2034	25	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	575	503	119	21	5	12	51	136	16	24	4	235	324	368	692	133	295	24	9	312	98	-2	+3	+0	-3	+12	1.1
2035	26	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	589	516	121	21	5	13	52	140	16	24	4	235	324	370	694	134	295	24	9	313	98	-1	+3	+0	-4	+13	1.1
2036	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	589	516	120	21	5	12	52	140	16	24	4	234	323	367	690	133	295	24	9	312	97	-2	+3	+0	-4	+13	1.1
2037	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	582	511	118	20	5	12	51	140	15	23	4	232	321	362	683	130	294	24	9	309	95	-3	+3	-1	-3	+13	0.8
2038	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	565	495	114	20	5	11	50	138	15	22	4	229	318	355	673	126	292	24	9	305	93	-5	+3	-1	-3	+12	0.5
2039	30	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	551	484	110	19	5	10	48	136	14	21	4	226	314	347	662	121	290	25	9	300	89	-7	+3	-2	-3	+12	0.2
2040	31	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	533	468	104	18	4	9	46	134	14	19	4	222	309	337	646	115	287	25	9	294	85	-9	+2	-3	-3	+12	-0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	52	45	11	2	1	1	5	13	2	2	0	228	318	338	657	110	301	25	10	299	83	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	126	110	27	5	2	2	11	31	4	5	1	232	322	350	672	118	303	25	9	305	87	-2	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	206	180	42	8	2	3	18	50	6	9	1	235	325	360	685	124	304	24	9	310	90	-2	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2031	22	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	262	230	54	10	3	4	23	63	7	11	2	238	327	368	695	130	305	24	9	314	93	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2032	23	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	298	262	62	12	3	5	26	71	8	12	2	240	328	375	703	135	306	24	9	317	95	-2	+2	+0	-2	+6	0.5
2033	24	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	316	276	68	13	4	6	28	75	9	13	2	242	330	379	708	137	307	24	9	319	97	-1	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2034	25	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	326	285	69	13	4	6	29	77	9	13	2	242	330	381	711	139	307	24	9	320	98	-1	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	333	292	71	13	4	7	29	79	9	14	2	242	330	383	713	141	306	24	9	321	98	-1	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.7
2036	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	327	286	69	13	4	6	29	78	9	13	2	241	329	380	709	139	306	24	9	319	97	-1	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	320	281	68	13	4	6	28	77	8	13	2	239	327	375	702	136	305	24	9	316	95	-2	+2	-0	-2	+7	0.5
2038	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	302	265	63	12	3	6	26	74	8	12	2	236	324	368	692	132	303	25	9	312	93	-3	+2	-1	-2	+7	0.3
2039	30	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	290	256	59	11	3	5	25	72	7	11	2	233	320	360	680	127	301	25	9	308	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2040	31	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	278	245	56	10	3	5	24	70	7	10	2	228	315	350	665	121	297	25	9	301	85	-5	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3436	3013	719	135	40	62	301	830	93	138	22	239	327	372	698	133	307	24	9	314	93	-26	+19	-4	-21	+74	4.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	137	26	8	12	57	157	18	26	4	240	329	377	706	137	309	24	9	314	93	-5	+4	-1	-4	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6596	5766	1321	229	60	123	584	1587	190	288	51	229	320	354	674	125	293	24	9	305	93	-53	+33	-7	-38	+139	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	131	23	6	12	58	156	19	28	5	231	322	356	678	125	295	24	9	305	93	-5	+3	-1	-4	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 188 PAwOBA .408 → .287 (−121)K% 18.1% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.09%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.02%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	11.91%
HBP% /PA	8.51%	—	×0.700	—	—	5.96%
Singles /BIP	24.04%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.046	—	17.10%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.046	—	4.83%
Triples /BIP	2.88%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.046	—	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	1.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .408 → .287; ISO .167 → .102; BABIP .353 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9
#3Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Roger Cedeno'95-'05 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,557 PA	5.4	3,557	40	213	262*	326*	361*	-24	-9	5.0	6.1
/162	664	7	40	-4.4	-1.7	0.9	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,534	67	142	231	317	357	-21	+0	6.6	5.9
/162	664	13	27	-4.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joscar Hernandez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	214/304/306	92	288	1	4	25%	9%	78	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	44→54	36→40	54→65	51	204/286/265	61	255	3	20	20%	8%	61	-1.5	257/302/327	70	316	4	28	19%	5%	79	-0.2	300/333/376	75	363	4	37	18%	3%	96	+0.8
●Jahmai Jones 2016 · A	18	43→51	38→50	50	42	204/262/285	80	276	5	16	27%	6%	55	-1.9	230/286/334	104	297	8	16	24%	6%	76	-0.4	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Manuel Margot 2014 · A	19	43→53	38→50	55→60	53	197/269/276	79	220	4	19	13%	8%	57	-1.8	244/286/360	116	280	9	27	16%	5%	81	-0.1	247/301/391	144	290	13	20	19%	7%	95	+0.8
●Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	40→50	38→45	53→50	45	192/255/278	86	256	4	11	26%	7%	51	-2.2	206/244/285	79	280	4	10	26%	4%	48	-2.5	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Tito Polo 2014 · A	19	41→51	36→45	54→60	43	196/264/262	66	267	4	22	27%	6%	51	-2.2	212/270/304	92	282	7	23	26%	5%	63	-1.4	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	43→53	41→50	54→60	45	205/273/309	104	282	7	12	28%	8%	65	-1.2	211/272/326	115	344	10	13	38%	7%	69	-0.9	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Brando Mayea 2024 · A	18	43	37→40	53→50	48	201/270/270	69	256	4	22	22%	8%	55	-1.9	205/267/275	70	313	5	19	34%	7%	55	-1.9	209/270/277	68	333	8	19	37%	6%	53	-0.8
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	41→51	42→50	51→45	46	199/266/307	109	243	8	10	22%	7%	63	-1.4	240/301/360	120	292	12	8	21%	5%	88	+0.4	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
●Leandro Castro 2008 · A	19	40→50	39→50	53→50	47	193/257/272	79	233	6	18	20%	7%	51	-2.2	206/247/298	92	258	7	14	22%	4%	53	-2.1	244/286/388	144	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Jeffrey Baez 2013 · A	19	42→46	39→50	56→60	42	201/258/286	84	264	6	25	25%	6%	55	-2.0	207/252/303	96	291	8	23	30%	5%	55	-1.9	208/243/310	103	281	9	27	29%	4%	51	-0.9
✕Taylor Trammell 2017 · A	19	47→48	37→55	55	39	218/270/298	80	323	4	18	32%	6%	61	-1.5	216/285/315	99	312	8	20	31%	8%	72	-0.7	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Jose Siri 2014 · A	19	42→52	39→60	51→55	40	201/251/292	92	270	5	14	27%	5%	53	-2.1	186/221/282	96	288	6	15	36%	4%	38	-3.2	235/282/445	210	322	27	25	35%	5%	100	+0.9
✕Daz Cameron 2016 · A	19	45→48	35→50	53→55	41	204/269/262	58	312	2	21	33%	7%	53	-2.1	201/263/303	102	309	7	18	35%	7%	60	-1.6	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→40	38→50	54→55	44	200/273/281	81	280	6	20	29%	7%	59	-1.6	210/281/330	120	279	11	18	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/280/342	138	273	13	19	29%	8%	74	-0.5
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	41→51	42→40	56→55	40	200/253/311	111	279	8	14	30%	6%	58	-1.7	229/294/317	88	284	6	19	20%	7%	75	-0.5	243/314/319	76	293	5	22	18%	8%	80	-0.1
●Abraham Almonte 2009 · A	20	41→51	41→55	53→55	45	200/260/302	102	263	8	18	27%	7%	59	-1.7	233/279/330	97	309	6	20	25%	6%	72	-0.7	259/316/379	120	330	8	25	22%	7%	94	+0.8
●Esteury Ruiz 2019 · A	20	43→53	42→50	59→70	36	207/258/320	113	315	9	26	36%	5%	62	-1.4	208/261/320	112	309	11	30	34%	6%	63	-1.3	268/342/400	133	331	12	74	21%	6%	111	+1.5
✕Nick Williams 2013 · A	19	48→58	38→55	57→45	37	222/270/308	86	326	4	14	32%	5%	63	-1.3	237/275/383	146	352	13	8	35%	4%	83	+0.1	247/302/419	172	327	21	4	30%	5%	101	+1.1

Joscar Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps