Ryan Lambert — OGILVIE

Ryan Lambert P Syracuse Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 222 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%31.2%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—40

CMD3035

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.43	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	16.2%	13.1%	0.7%	1.62	3.05	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	16.2%	13.1%	0.7%	1.62	3.05	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	39.5%	13.2%	26.3%	0.5%	1.62	1.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	29	1	26	125	36	28	3	3%	0.9	23.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.1%	6.84	5.26	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	29	1	26	125	36	28	3	3%	0.9	23.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.1%	6.84	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYM	2	1	2	9	2	2	0	50%	0.8	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	4.04	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	2	0	2	8	4	3	0	0%	0.8	50.0%	37.5%	12.5%	0.0%	5.40	3.63	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYM	25	0	23	108	30	23	3	0%	0.9	27.8%	21.3%	6.5%	2.8%	6.26	4.98	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	27	8	4	1	0%	1.1	31.2%	16.8%	14.4%	2.6%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	33	152	44	32	4	—	—	29.2%	21.4%	7.8%	2.4%	6.36	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	88	0	92	389	120	57	10	0%	1.0	30.8%	14.7%	16.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.16	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	89	0	93	394	121	53	10	0%	1.0	30.6%	13.5%	17.1%	2.6%	4.12	4.03	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	89	0	93	394	120	52	10	0%	1.0	30.3%	13.1%	17.2%	2.6%	4.06	4.02	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	88	0	92	388	117	51	10	0%	1.0	30.1%	13.1%	17.1%	2.7%	4.06	4.06	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	85	0	89	377	113	50	10	0%	1.0	30.0%	13.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.15	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	81	0	85	360	107	48	11	0%	1.1	29.8%	13.5%	16.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.28	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	76	0	80	338	99	47	11	0%	1.1	29.4%	13.8%	15.7%	3.1%	4.36	4.46	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	42	0	44	186	57	27	5	0%	1.0	30.8%	14.7%	16.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.16	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	62	0	65	274	84	37	7	0%	1.0	30.6%	13.5%	17.1%	2.6%	4.12	4.03	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	72	0	76	321	97	42	8	0%	1.1	30.3%	13.1%	17.2%	2.6%	4.06	4.02	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	75	0	79	334	100	44	9	0%	1.1	30.1%	13.1%	17.1%	2.7%	4.06	4.06	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	76	0	80	338	101	45	9	0%	1.1	30.0%	13.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.15	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	74	0	78	329	98	44	10	0%	1.1	29.8%	13.5%	16.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.28	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	74	312	92	43	10	0%	1.1	29.4%	13.8%	15.7%	3.1%	4.36	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		473	0	497	2096	631	282	58	0%	1.0	30.1%	13.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.16	3.78	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	254	114	23	0%	1.0	30.1%	13.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.16	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		77	1	79	342	93	58	5	1%	1.0	27.2%	17.0%	10.2%	1.5%	3.29	3.80	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	3	200	862	234	146	13	1%	1.0	27.2%	17.0%	10.2%	1.5%	3.29	3.80	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Lambert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	31.2%	16.8%	2.6%	—	4.07	30.6%	16.8%	279	-0.32	—	—	—
Marshall Kasowski R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	23	SU	3.42	32.5%	16.8%	1.7%	.241	2.94	30.0%	15.8%	29	-0.48	2.94	150	85
Nick Ernst R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	30.5%	15.3%	2.0%	.292	5.05	21.9%	7.3%	60	+1.49	3.56	117	84
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.29	19.7%	2.0%	149	+1.55	3.74	203	82
Eduard Santos R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.02	2.04	138	81
Akeel Morris R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	23	SU	3.70	26.7%	15.2%	1.7%	.311	4.30	19.4%	6.7%	107	+0.60	3.00	305	81
Stevie Branche R 2021 · 3.23 FIP	24	SU	3.23	30.0%	16.4%	1.1%	.257	5.21	22.3%	3.1%	104	+1.98	3.23	162	79
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	79
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	34.4%	18.8%	2.2%	.259	4.89	22.2%	3.6%	75	+1.08	3.81	109	78
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	78
Jacob Webb R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	23	SU	3.33	26.7%	12.8%	1.6%	.328	4.52	18.9%	7.7%	170	+1.19	3.33	268	77
Freddy Pacheco R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	34.4%	15.5%	3.5%	.259	3.62	28.4%	16.8%	62	-0.44	2.60	232	77
Taylor Floyd R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.30	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.82	3.48	359	77
Tyler Thornton R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	29.0%	17.1%	2.9%	.188	4.89	22.2%	4.8%	63	+0.47	3.73	148	77
Dalbert Siri R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	23	SU	4.08	26.8%	14.7%	2.5%	.262	4.89	20.0%	6.3%	67	+0.81	2.64	216	77
Joe Barlow R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SU	3.60	30.8%	18.8%	1.3%	.340	3.55	24.1%	14.2%	85	-0.05	2.99	354	76
Cole Uvila R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	27.6%	15.5%	0.9%	.246	3.65	20.3%	6.8%	98	+0.41	3.16	155	76
Jake Haberer R 2019 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	26.9%	17.3%	0.8%	.278	5.80	19.6%	3.0%	76	+2.34	3.46	183	76
Vin Timpanelli R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	27.4%	19.9%	3.7%	.350	4.72	17.9%	4.0%	69	-0.63	4.01	162	75
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	75
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.6%	5.7%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	30.3%	14.0%	1.06	4.19
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39