Ryan Lambert
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 222 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.4%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%13.7%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 46 | 0 | 50 | 205 | 81 | 27 | 1 | 29.3% | 16.2% | 0.7% | 1.62 | 3.05 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 25.4% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 42 | 175 | 47 | 21 | 4 | 27.1% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 17 | 4 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 26.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 26.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 26.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 25.9% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 73 | 37 | 1 | 30.3% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 1.68 | 2.81 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 817 | 247 | 125 | 3 | 30.3% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 1.68 | 2.81 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Lambert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 25.4% | 11.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.02 | 25.9% | 15.7% | 111 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 94 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 94 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 93 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 93 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 90 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.35 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .250 | 4.68 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.33 | 3.35 | 102 | 87 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.15 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 1.3% | .257 | 4.43 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 182 | +1.28 | 3.15 | 290 | 86 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 86 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.19 | 3.24 | 182 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.74 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.34 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.60 | 3.74 | 203 | 86 |
| Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.01 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.62 | 0.50 | 249 | 85 |
| Peyton Gray R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 85 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 85 |
| Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.63 | 28.9% | 25.8% | 37 | -0.57 | 3.02 | 190 | 85 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 84 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.33 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.54 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.21 | 3.33 | 223 | 84 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.61 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.69 | 4.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Dalbert Siri R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 2.5% | .262 | 4.88 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 67 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 216 | 84 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$5M | ||