Ryan Lambert
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 222 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%31.2%
BB%16.4%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.34 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.43 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 50 | 205 | 81 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 0.7% | 1.62 | 3.05 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 50 | 205 | 81 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 39.5% | 13.2% | 26.3% | 0.5% | 1.62 | 1.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 24 | 0 | 23 | 106 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.9% | 22.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 6.35 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 118 | 62 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 113 | 486 | 148 | 85 | 13 | — | — | 30.5% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 9 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 1 | — | — | 31.2% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 120 | 56 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 121 | 52 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 120 | 51 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.3% | 12.9% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 117 | 50 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 12.8% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +1.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 57 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 84 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 97 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 12.9% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 100 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.1% | 12.8% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 260 | 0 | 273 | 1153 | 351 | 154 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 13.3% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.65 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 257 | 113 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 13.3% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 323 | 90 | 58 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 18.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 3.82 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 854 | 239 | 154 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 18.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Lambert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 31.2% | 16.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.04 | 30.6% | 17.1% | 279 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Nick Ernst R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 30.5% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.99 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 60 | +1.45 | 3.54 | 117 | 85 |
| Marshall Kasowski R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 32.5% | 16.8% | 1.6% | .241 | 3.01 | 30.0% | 15.8% | 29 | -0.33 | 3.01 | 150 | 85 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 83 |
| Eduard Santos R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 28.1% | 15.2% | 1.5% | .265 | 3.62 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 79 | +0.13 | 2.04 | 138 | 81 |
| Akeel Morris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.63 | 26.7% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .311 | 4.35 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 107 | +0.72 | 2.94 | 305 | 81 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 28.1% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.58 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 59 | +1.07 | 3.51 | 156 | 80 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 80 |
| Stevie Branche R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.25 | 30.0% | 16.4% | 1.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 22.6% | 2.6% | 104 | +1.99 | 3.25 | 162 | 79 |
| Luis Guerrero R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.8% | .270 | 6.68 | 16.0% | 0.7% | 81 | +2.73 | 2.97 | 222 | 78 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.48 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 252 | 78 |
| Freddy Pacheco R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 34.4% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .259 | 3.54 | 28.4% | 16.8% | 62 | -0.43 | 2.60 | 232 | 78 |
| Jonathan Sprinkle R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 34.4% | 18.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 4.75 | 22.2% | 3.6% | 75 | +1.07 | 3.68 | 109 | 78 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.34 | 334 | 78 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 78 |
| Dalbert Siri R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.13 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.01 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 67 | +0.88 | 2.64 | 216 | 77 |
| Jake Haberer R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 26.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% | .278 | 6.08 | 19.6% | 3.0% | 76 | +2.46 | 3.62 | 183 | 77 |
| Tyler Thornton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.44 | 29.0% | 17.1% | 3.0% | .188 | 5.01 | 22.2% | 4.8% | 63 | +0.57 | 3.75 | 148 | 76 |
| Alfredo Zarraga R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 138 | 76 |
| Cole Uvila R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 27.6% | 15.5% | 0.8% | .246 | 3.67 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 98 | +0.49 | 3.16 | 155 | 76 |
| Elison Joseph R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 26.8% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .265 | 4.85 | 22.3% | -4.5% | 57 | +1.40 | 3.45 | 217 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 30.6% | 13.9% | 1.01 | 4.13 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Dinelson Lamet ('23) | 6 | 61 | 30.0% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |