Tyler Thornton — OGILVIE

Tyler Thornton P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%22.7%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	30	0	35	143	58	20	4	0%	1.2	30.0%	16.5%	13.5%	3.6%	3.63	4.62	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	30	0	35	143	58	20	4	0%	1.2	40.6%	14.0%	26.6%	2.8%	3.63	2.98	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	212	79	32	5	0%	1.3	29.0%	17.1%	11.9%	2.9%	2.66	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	212	79	32	5	0%	1.3	29.0%	17.1%	11.9%	2.9%	2.66	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	51	212	79	32	5	0%	1.3	37.3%	15.1%	22.2%	2.4%	2.66	3.16	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	1.0%	4.72	3.73	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	1.0%	4.72	3.73	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	29.4%	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	4.72	2.95	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	21.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.46	5.75	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	21.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.46	5.75	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	29.7%	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.46	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	16.3%	6.4%	3.0%	5.29	5.29	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	34	0	36	151	34	24	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.21	5.23	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	0	13	55	12	9	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.21	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	57	13	9	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.21	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	134	30	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.21	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		127	0	152	666	173	114	20	0%	1.2	26.0%	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	3.72	4.70	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	874	228	150	26	0%	1.2	26.0%	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	3.72	4.70	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	22.7%	16.3%	3.0%	—	5.23	22.7%	7.1%	36	-0.06	—	—	—
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	81
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	80
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	80
Trey Benton R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	23.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.366	2.92	18.1%	7.4%	31	-1.57	2.92	139	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.7%	15.9%	1.18	5.24
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41