Xavier Martinez

P Lake County Captains

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	32	52	2.79	2.29	29.7%	11.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.23
2026	23	A+CLE	29	42	4.25	5.11	20.4%	14.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 17.0% · FIP 6.03
2027PROJ	24	MLBCLE	26	27	5.40	5.40	18.9%	14.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCLE	19	20	5.16	5.08	20.0%	13.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCLE	30	31	5.03	4.99	20.6%	12.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsGrayson Thurman (age 24) · Cody Scroggins (age 24) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%18.9%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	0.6%	2.79	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	0.6%	2.79	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	29.7%	11.4%	18.3%	0.5%	2.79	2.29	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	15.7%	17.0%	-1.3%	3.8%	4.25	6.03	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	15.7%	17.0%	-1.3%	3.8%	4.25	6.03	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	20.4%	14.8%	5.6%	3.1%	4.25	5.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CLE	26	0	27	114	22	17	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	3.0%	5.40	5.40	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	47	199	40	26	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	3.0%	5.16	5.08	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	47	199	41	25	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.8%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	4.99	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	19	0	20	84	17	11	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	3.0%	5.16	5.08	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	31	131	27	17	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.8%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	52	218	44	28	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.08	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	109	23	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.08	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		61	0	94	415	79	63	9	0%	1.5	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.1%	3.45	4.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	883	169	133	19	0%	1.5	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.1%	3.45	4.55	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	18.9%	14.8%	3.0%	—	5.04	20.3%	7.4%	94	-0.37	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	91
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	89
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	89
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.31	16.6%	6.6%	107	-0.85	3.20	213	87
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	86
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	86
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	40	20.0%	13.4%	1.15	5.16
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88