Xavier Martinez
P
Lynchburg Hillcats
+0.4
WAR
Age 23
RHP
5'11" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.7%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 32 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 65 | 25 | 1 | 22.2% | 13.4% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.23 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 55 | 21 | 6 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 52 | 20 | 6 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 49 | 29 | 1 | 22.2% | 13.4% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.23 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 190 | 112 | 4 | 22.2% | 13.4% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.23 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xavier Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.15 | 23.9% | 14.5% | 160 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 95 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .331 | 4.70 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.12 | 3.58 | 539 | 91 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 91 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 91 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 90 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 90 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 90 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.64 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 385 | 90 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 90 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 89 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.36 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .281 | 7.73 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.37 | 3.36 | 191 | 89 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.64 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.43 | 3.21 | 137 | 89 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $12M | +$6M | ||