Xavier Martinez — OGILVIE

Xavier Martinez P Lake County Captains

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.5%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	0.6%	2.79	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	0.6%	2.79	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	52	219	65	25	1	0%	1.6	29.7%	11.4%	18.3%	0.5%	2.79	2.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	15.7%	17.0%	-1.3%	3.8%	4.25	6.03	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	15.7%	17.0%	-1.3%	3.8%	4.25	6.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CLE	29	0	42	196	40	29	6	0%	1.5	20.4%	14.8%	5.6%	3.1%	4.25	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	48	201	47	23	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	46	0	48	204	48	22	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	46	0	48	204	48	21	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	48	201	48	21	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	20	0	21	89	20	10	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	32	135	32	14	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	36	0	38	160	38	17	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	39	0	41	173	41	18	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	0	131	555	131	59	15	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	90	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		61	0	94	415	79	63	9	0%	1.5	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.1%	3.45	4.55	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	883	169	133	19	0%	1.5	19.1%	15.1%	4.0%	2.1%	3.45	4.55	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.5%	12.6%	2.7%	—	4.37	23.4%	12.6%	144	-0.30	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	93
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	92
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	92
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	90
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	90
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	89
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	89
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	46	23.3%	11.0%	1.06	4.45
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99