Xavier Martinez
P
Lake County Captains
Age 23
RHP
5'11" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 65 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 65 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.7% | 11.4% | 18.3% | 0.5% | 2.79 | 2.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 17 | 0 | 21 | 103 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.2% | 16.7% | -2.5% | 6.1% | 5.91 | 7.35 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 34 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 58 | 256 | 54 | 31 | 9 | — | — | 21.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 0 | 134 | 568 | 136 | 53 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.79 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 79 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 73 | 322 | 63 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 4.55 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 0 | 200 | 882 | 173 | 127 | 20 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xavier Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.15 | 23.9% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 94 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 92 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 92 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 91 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 91 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 90 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 90 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 89 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 89 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 89 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 88 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 37 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 1.07 | 4.22 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |