Miguel Rivera — OGILVIE

Miguel RiveraC DSL Red Sox Red

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+65

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .283 / .290

PA5

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	89	16	1	0	0	13	21	1	0	0	180	291	191	482	11	222	20	12	230	42	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	43	10	1	0	1	12	2	1	0	0	233	411	326	736	93	225	4	21	352	124	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	94	14	1	0	0	8	31	1	0	0	149	223	160	383	11	189	29	7	174	4	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	48	9	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0	188	304	271	574	83	178	5	12	258	61	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	94	14	1	0	0	8	31	1	0	0	149	223	160	383	11	209	29	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	89	16	1	0	0	13	21	1	0	0	180	291	191	482	11	222	20	12	230	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	48	9	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0	188	304	271	574	83	182	5	12	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	43	10	1	0	1	12	2	1	0	0	233	411	326	736	93	225	4	21	352	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	97	14	1	0	0	8	31	1	0	0	144	223	155	378	10	189	29	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	48	9	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0	188	304	271	574	83	178	5	12	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	97	14	1	0	0	8	31	1	0	0	144	223	155	378	10	189	29	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	48	9	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0	188	304	271	574	83	178	5	12	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		287	20	0	264	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	150	135	30	4	1	2	12	37	2	1	1	222	295	311	606	89	289	25	8	275	73	-5	-0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	48%	293	265	61	9	2	5	23	71	3	3	1	230	299	336	635	106	290	24	8	283	78	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	54%	400	360	83	13	2	7	32	96	5	4	1	231	302	336	638	106	291	24	8	288	81	-9	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	57%	472	426	99	15	3	9	38	112	5	4	2	232	303	345	648	113	292	24	8	292	84	-9	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	519	466	109	16	3	10	42	123	6	5	2	234	305	345	651	112	293	24	8	294	85	-9	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	467	111	17	3	11	42	123	6	5	2	238	309	358	666	120	293	24	8	296	86	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	520	467	110	16	3	11	42	123	6	5	2	236	307	353	660	118	293	24	8	297	87	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	520	466	109	16	3	11	43	123	6	5	2	234	307	352	659	118	293	24	8	297	87	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	520	466	109	16	3	11	43	124	6	4	2	234	307	352	659	118	293	24	8	296	86	-8	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	520	466	108	16	3	10	43	125	6	4	2	232	305	343	648	112	292	24	8	294	85	-9	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	520	466	108	16	3	10	43	126	6	4	1	232	305	343	648	112	290	24	8	291	83	-10	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.9
2038	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	504	451	102	15	2	9	42	124	6	3	1	226	301	328	629	102	288	25	8	287	80	-12	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.6
2039	32	MLB MLE	—	56%	488	439	98	14	2	9	41	122	5	2	1	223	297	326	623	103	285	25	8	281	77	-14	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.2
2040	33	MLB MLE	—	59%	446	401	87	12	2	7	37	114	5	2	1	217	291	309	600	92	281	26	8	275	72	-15	+0	-4	+8	+10	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	52	47	11	2	0	1	4	13	1	0	0	234	308	340	648	106	289	25	8	275	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	48%	142	128	29	4	1	2	11	34	2	1	0	227	298	320	618	94	290	24	8	283	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	54%	217	196	45	7	1	4	17	52	2	2	1	230	298	337	634	107	291	24	8	288	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	57%	267	241	56	8	2	5	21	63	3	2	1	232	302	344	646	112	292	24	8	292	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	293	264	62	9	2	6	24	69	3	3	1	235	306	352	658	117	293	24	8	294	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	294	265	62	9	2	6	24	70	3	3	1	234	305	351	656	117	293	24	8	296	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	294	265	62	9	2	6	24	70	3	3	1	234	305	351	656	117	293	24	8	297	87	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	288	259	61	9	2	6	24	68	3	3	1	236	308	355	663	120	293	24	8	297	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	285	256	60	9	2	6	24	68	3	2	1	234	307	355	663	121	293	24	8	296	86	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	278	250	58	9	1	6	23	67	3	2	1	232	304	348	652	116	292	24	8	294	85	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	274	246	55	8	1	5	23	67	3	2	1	224	298	325	623	102	290	24	8	291	83	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	263	236	53	8	1	5	22	65	3	2	1	225	299	331	629	106	288	25	8	287	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	—	56%	274	246	55	8	1	5	23	69	3	1	1	224	298	325	623	102	285	25	8	281	77	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	—	59%	263	236	51	7	1	4	22	67	3	1	0	216	291	305	596	89	281	25	8	275	72	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3484	3135	720	106	19	67	286	842	38	27	11	230	302	340	642	110	292	24	8	290	81	-72	+1	-8	+62	+75	6.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	135	20	4	12	53	157	7	5	2	231	302	340	642	109	294	24	8	290	81	-13	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6560	5888	1348	197	35	123	538	1578	75	51	21	229	302	337	639	108	290	24	8	288	81	-133	+2	-15	+114	+139	10.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	133	20	3	12	53	156	7	5	2	228	300	334	634	106	289	24	8	288	81	-14	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#4Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,543	67	28	231	300	340	+63	+32	8.6	7.3
/162	664	13	5	+11.9	+6.0	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Rivera (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	216/283/290	74	287	1	1	25%	8%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	53	-2.1	211/261/303	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	59	-1.6	185/229/266	80	254	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	51	-2.3	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	47	-2.6	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	56	-1.9	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	67	-1.1	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	73	-0.2
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	69	-0.9	213/293/326	113	268	10	14	23%	8%	78	-0.3	212/279/323	110	272	10	12	25%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Leo Jiménez 2021 · A	20	44→49	37→45	50→45	46	209/267/287	78	267	4	6	23%	7%	57	-1.8	232/342/321	89	299	6	8	22%	10%	96	+1.0	228/319/335	107	286	10	5	22%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→45	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	64	-1.3	223/301/315	92	295	6	8	24%	10%	77	-0.3	207/279/322	115	260	13	5	25%	9%	69	-0.8
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	288	5	7	31%	8%	58	-1.7	194/291/271	77	319	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	158/267/223	66	272	6	3	39%	10%	45	-1.1
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	39	39→45	47→50	45	192/256/277	84	251	7	8	26%	7%	52	-2.2	210/290/338	128	295	14	8	31%	9%	79	-0.2	177/254/299	122	259	13	14	35%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	40→46	41→55	46→55	40	199/248/293	95	266	8	5	28%	5%	52	-2.2	209/270/337	128	287	13	8	30%	7%	71	-0.8	230/293/400	170	266	20	16	22%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Ismerling Mota 2017 · A	19	43	40→45	46→40	41	211/253/301	90	262	8	5	23%	5%	55	-1.9	203/254/278	75	282	5	4	28%	5%	51	-2.3	180/231/230	51	220	3	0	19%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Jamie Westbrook 2014 · A	19	45→52	39→50	50→45	43	213/266/306	93	279	4	6	24%	6%	61	-1.5	230/269/337	107	281	9	7	21%	4%	70	-0.9	240/311/368	128	286	13	4	20%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→48	37→45	47→55	46	188/255/261	74	254	4	8	27%	8%	48	-2.5	196/259/258	62	280	4	10	29%	7%	48	-2.5	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	46	205/268/282	77	271	6	5	26%	8%	57	-1.8	205/257/287	82	297	4	5	30%	6%	53	-2.1	267/298/376	109	332	10	18	22%	3%	90	+0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	39→48	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/281	91	262	7	9	29%	6%	49	-2.4	189/246/285	96	287	9	8	35%	7%	50	-2.3	206/266/327	121	281	14	11	31%	7%	64	-1.1
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→50	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	58	-1.7	242/287/359	117	276	12	5	17%	5%	82	-0.0	243/286/377	134	275	16	5	18%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Yairo Muñoz 2015 · A	20	41→51	38→45	48→55	43	198/255/280	82	264	5	7	26%	6%	52	-2.2	222/257/325	103	272	10	9	22%	4%	62	-1.4	263/305/392	130	320	14	17	22%	5%	92	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps