Miguel Rivera

C DSL Red Sox Red

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1392ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	107	.180/.291/.191	0	0	1	—	.129/.214/.140
2025	18	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	56	.233/.411/.326	1	0	44	—	.170/.304/.255
2027PROJMLE	20	MLB—	166	.218/.287/.284	1	1	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLB—	25	.221/.292/.298	0	0	69	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLB—	78	.225/.295/.309	1	1	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

K%99

Chase%99

Whiff%99

Z-Con%99

BB%92

wOBA69

CompsMarco Guzman (age 20) · Luis Vázquez (age 19) · Emilio King (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj PA

wRC+64

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .285 / .282

PA29

HR0

K%24

BB%8

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	89	16	1	0	0	13	21	1	0	0	180	291	191	482	11	222	20	12	230	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	43	10	1	0	1	12	2	1	0	0	233	411	326	736	93	225	4	21	352	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	93	12	1	0	0	9	27	1	0	0	129	214	140	353	11	160	25	8	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	47	8	1	0	1	8	3	1	0	0	170	304	255	559	85	148	5	14	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	93	12	1	0	0	9	27	1	0	0	129	214	140	353	11	171	25	8	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	89	16	1	0	0	13	21	1	0	0	180	291	191	482	11	222	20	12	230	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	47	8	1	0	1	8	3	1	0	0	170	304	255	559	85	163	5	14	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	43	10	1	0	1	12	2	1	0	0	233	411	326	736	93	225	4	21	352	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	96	12	1	0	0	9	27	1	0	0	125	214	135	349	10	160	25	8	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	47	8	1	0	1	8	3	1	0	0	170	304	255	559	85	148	5	14	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	107	96	12	1	0	0	9	27	1	0	0	125	214	135	349	10	160	25	8	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	56	47	8	1	0	1	8	3	1	0	0	170	304	255	559	85	148	5	14	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	0%	166	150	32	4	1	1	13	40	2	1	1	218	287	284	571	66	287	24	8	263	64	-7	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	34%	72	65	14	2	0	1	6	17	1	1	0	221	292	298	589	76	288	24	8	270	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	48%	162	146	33	5	1	2	13	39	2	1	1	225	295	309	604	85	289	24	8	276	73	-5	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	54%	254	229	53	7	2	4	20	60	3	2	1	227	298	320	618	92	290	24	8	281	76	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	55%	342	308	70	10	2	5	28	81	3	3	1	230	301	329	629	99	291	24	8	285	79	-8	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	56%	393	354	82	12	2	7	32	93	4	3	2	231	302	336	638	104	291	24	8	289	82	-9	-0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	423	382	88	13	2	8	34	100	4	3	2	232	302	338	640	106	291	24	8	290	82	-9	-0	+0	+8	+9	0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	438	395	91	13	2	8	36	104	4	3	2	231	301	335	636	104	291	24	8	288	81	-10	-0	+0	+8	+9	0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	440	397	90	13	2	7	36	105	4	2	1	229	299	330	629	101	290	24	8	285	79	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	435	393	89	13	2	7	35	105	4	1	1	226	296	324	620	98	288	24	8	281	77	-12	-0	-1	+8	+9	0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	425	384	85	12	2	6	34	104	4	1	1	223	293	316	608	93	286	24	8	277	73	-13	-0	-2	+8	+9	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	391	354	77	11	2	5	31	97	3	0	1	219	288	306	593	87	283	25	8	271	69	-14	-0	-3	+7	+8	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	34%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	221	292	298	589	76	288	24	8	270	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	48%	78	71	15	2	0	1	6	19	1	1	0	225	295	309	604	85	289	24	8	276	73	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	54%	138	125	29	4	1	2	11	33	1	1	1	227	298	320	618	92	290	24	8	281	76	-4	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	55%	190	171	40	6	1	3	15	45	2	2	1	230	301	329	629	99	291	24	8	285	79	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	56%	220	198	46	7	1	4	18	52	2	2	1	231	302	336	638	104	291	24	8	289	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	238	215	49	7	1	4	19	56	2	2	1	232	302	338	640	106	291	24	8	290	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	242	218	49	7	1	4	20	57	2	2	1	231	301	335	636	104	291	24	8	288	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	241	217	49	7	1	4	20	58	2	1	1	229	299	330	629	101	290	24	8	285	79	-6	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	232	209	48	7	1	4	19	56	2	0	1	226	296	324	620	98	288	24	8	281	77	-6	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	224	202	44	6	1	3	18	55	2	0	1	223	293	316	608	93	286	25	8	277	73	-7	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	204	184	41	6	1	3	16	51	2	0	0	219	288	306	593	87	283	25	8	271	69	-7	+0	-1	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2032	1833	415	60	9	32	164	488	18	11	8	226	296	321	618	95	290	24	8	283	75	-54	-1	-4	+36	+44	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	132	19	3	10	52	156	6	4	3	225	295	319	614	94	288	24	8	283	75	-17	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3967	3574	798	114	19	61	324	942	38	20	13	223	295	317	612	94	284	24	8	279	75	-103	-1	-7	+68	+82	4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	131	19	3	10	53	154	6	3	2	224	295	317	612	94	284	24	8	279	75	-18	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 56 PAwOBA .344 → .233 (−111)K% 3.6% → 4.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.57%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	4.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.43%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.80%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.26%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷1.017	×0.680	×0.997	×1.008	13.11%
Doubles /BIP	2.44%	÷0.998	×0.600	×0.997	×1.008	1.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.997	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷0.880	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.31%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 95, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .344 → .233; ISO .093 → .057; BABIP .225 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 107 PAwOBA .234 → .169 (−65)K% 19.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.63%	÷0.965	×1.220	—	—	24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.15%	÷1.044	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.33%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.67%
Singles /BIP	22.06%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	16.10%
Doubles /BIP	1.47%	÷1.124	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .234 → .169; ISO .011 → .007; BABIP .222 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Kirt Manwaring'87-'99 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,336 PA	5.0	3,336	21	10	238*	304*	324*	+59	+0	3.1	4.2
/162	664	4	2	+11.8	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.1	2,061	33	11	228	295	326	+37	+28	3.9	3.6
/162	664	11	4	+11.9	+9.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Rivera (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	216/285/282	66	287	0	0	24%	8%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	38	37→50	44→50	51	181/256/254	72	222	4	7	20%	8%	47	-2.6	202/251/280	78	244	4	7	18%	6%	50	-2.3	218/259/314	97	279	5	8	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	39	37→45	50→40	43	185/269/261	75	247	3	9	25%	6%	55	-2.0	201/250/286	85	299	6	4	33%	4%	51	-2.2	211/248/304	94	307	7	2	33%	3%	51	-1.1
✕Mauricio Ramos 2012 · A	20	38→48	36→45	43→40	51	179/265/238	59	226	3	5	21%	9%	48	-2.5	215/262/296	81	271	5	3	21%	5%	57	-1.8	235/272/332	97	290	6	1	21%	3%	67	-0.5
✕Hector Pellot 2007 · A	20	39→49	37→40	42→50	42	186/255/256	70	269	4	6	30%	7%	47	-2.5	222/281/305	83	310	6	15	28%	6%	67	-1.1	230/286/314	84	324	6	16	29%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Nahum Hernandez 2010 · A	20	37	37→40	44→50	44	182/249/251	69	238	5	5	25%	6%	44	-2.8	218/293/305	87	277	6	10	22%	8%	72	-0.7	244/336/340	97	290	6	15	16%	10%	92	+0.2
✕James Harris 2014 · A	20	36→46	36→40	46→50	42	176/239/245	69	249	3	10	29%	7%	38	-3.2	210/270/299	89	304	8	12	31%	7%	62	-1.4	221/284/309	88	314	7	14	30%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A	20	42→39	35→55	49→50	38	198/237/257	59	280	3	7	29%	5%	38	-3.2	172/211/256	84	307	7	8	44%	4%	30	-3.8	223/282/387	164	300	20	11	31%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Michael Almanzar 2011 · A	20	40→50	38→45	46→45	36	196/235/277	81	273	6	4	30%	4%	43	-2.8	211/249/309	98	279	9	6	27%	4%	56	-1.9	243/289/370	127	299	13	8	23%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Phillip Evans 2014 · A	21	39→49	37→45	45→40	44	189/239/257	67	237	4	5	22%	6%	40	-3.1	217/264/293	76	271	5	3	21%	6%	57	-1.8	215/290/341	125	253	14	3	20%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jose Marquez 2018 · A	20	40	37→50	44→50	40	191/241/267	75	255	4	4	26%	5%	43	-2.8	216/259/319	103	294	8	7	28%	5%	62	-1.4	196/243/314	118	272	13	10	32%	5%	52	-0.7
✕Brandon Barnes 2006 · A	20	38→48	38→55	47→50	37	184/237/265	81	266	6	6	32%	5%	42	-2.9	182/229/257	75	281	5	7	35%	5%	36	-3.3	242/288/365	123	327	11	16	28%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	42	193/245/268	75	263	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	238/286/328	90	316	8	10	26%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	35	37→45	42→40	38	175/237/244	69	259	5	4	33%	6%	37	-3.3	206/258/298	92	286	7	4	29%	6%	57	-1.8	213/268/321	108	292	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→45	36→50	43→45	48	168/257/234	66	242	4	7	30%	9%	44	-2.8	190/257/296	106	277	8	5	32%	7%	57	-1.8	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Alejandro Selen 2008 · A	19	39	35→50	46→30	48	183/257/241	58	234	2	7	22%	7%	45	-2.7	205/253/287	82	264	5	7	23%	5%	53	-2.1	220/256/360	140	315	15	1	34%	3%	68	-0.4
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Jase Bowen 2021 · A	20	41→42	36→50	50→55	39	192/248/263	71	293	3	8	34%	6%	45	-2.7	191/247/300	109	287	12	14	36%	5%	54	-2.0	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	39→49	37→50	48→40	43	188/248/260	72	247	3	6	24%	6%	45	-2.7	199/247/278	79	252	4	5	22%	5%	48	-2.5	272/289/402	130	307	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Luis Suisbel 2023 · A	20	33→43	38→50	46→45	40	163/257/237	74	251	5	6	34%	7%	45	-2.7	200/279/328	128	306	15	5	37%	7%	73	-0.6	191/267/326	136	288	18	4	38%	7%	68	-0.8

Miguel Rivera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps