Isaac Ponce — OGILVIE

Isaac PonceC ACL Padres

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 192 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 77 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .260 / .246

PA77

HR1

K%30

BB%8

BABIP244

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$12M		$27M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	110	17	2	0	0	11	43	6	1	1	155	268	173	440	18	254	34	9	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	102	22	3	0	0	19	28	6	1	1	216	370	245	615	29	297	22	15	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	164	28	4	0	5	13	46	9	4	0	171	269	287	555	116	202	25	7	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	41	7	0	6	23	30	9	4	0	266	392	429	821	162	294	16	12	372	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	80	69	8	2	0	1	7	30	4	0	0	116	237	188	426	72	184	38	9	213	21	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	80	64	12	3	0	2	12	21	4	0	0	188	350	328	678	141	244	26	15	321	104	+0	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
ROS	19	ROK	SD	0%	77	69	12	2	0	1	6	23	2	1	0	174	260	246	506	72	268	30	8	259	56	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		264	—	—	239	41	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	SD	—	80	70	8	2	0	1	7	30	4	0	0	114	237	186	423	71	179	38	9	213	21	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
TOT	19	ROK	SD	—	157	138	20	4	0	2	13	53	6	1	0	145	248	217	466	72	217	34	8	235	38	-11	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	239	214	44	8	1	5	18	68	5	3	1	206	283	322	605	117	273	28	8	271	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	363	325	68	12	2	8	28	101	7	5	2	209	286	332	618	123	275	28	8	278	71	-12	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	452	405	85	15	2	10	35	124	9	7	2	210	287	331	618	121	277	27	8	283	75	-13	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.9
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	510	455	98	18	2	12	40	139	10	8	2	215	293	343	636	127	278	27	8	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.1
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	520	464	101	18	3	12	41	141	10	8	3	218	295	347	642	129	279	27	8	288	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	520	463	101	18	3	12	41	141	11	8	3	218	297	348	645	130	279	27	8	288	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	520	463	99	18	2	12	41	141	11	8	3	214	293	339	632	125	279	27	8	289	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	520	462	99	18	2	12	42	141	11	8	3	214	295	340	635	126	279	27	8	289	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	520	462	99	18	2	12	42	142	11	8	3	214	295	340	635	126	278	27	8	288	78	-13	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2036	29	MLB	SD	58%	520	462	99	18	2	12	43	143	10	8	2	214	295	340	635	126	277	28	8	286	77	-14	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2037	30	MLB	SD	60%	520	462	96	17	2	11	43	144	10	8	2	208	289	325	614	117	276	28	8	283	75	-15	+1	-2	+9	+15	0.8
2038	31	MLB	SD	62%	504	448	93	16	2	11	41	141	10	7	2	208	289	326	614	118	273	28	8	279	72	-16	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.5
2039	32	MLB	SD	63%	489	436	88	15	2	10	40	139	10	7	2	202	284	314	598	112	270	28	8	273	67	-18	+1	-4	+9	+14	0.2
2040	33	MLB	SD	63%	457	408	82	14	2	9	37	132	9	6	2	201	282	311	593	110	266	29	8	267	62	-19	+0	-4	+8	+13	-0.2
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	82	74	15	3	0	2	6	23	2	1	0	203	280	324	605	122	269	28	7	252	51	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	176	156	33	6	1	4	14	49	4	3	1	212	293	340	633	128	272	28	8	259	57	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	245	219	45	8	1	5	19	67	5	4	1	205	284	320	604	114	274	27	8	264	61	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	289	258	54	10	1	6	23	79	6	4	1	209	289	326	615	116	275	27	8	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	294	263	56	10	1	7	23	80	6	5	1	213	291	338	629	125	275	27	8	269	64	-12	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	294	263	56	10	1	7	23	80	6	5	1	213	291	338	629	125	275	27	8	270	65	-12	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	294	263	56	10	1	7	23	80	6	5	1	213	291	338	629	125	275	27	8	270	65	-12	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	288	257	55	10	1	7	23	78	6	5	1	214	294	342	636	128	275	27	8	270	65	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	285	254	52	9	1	6	23	78	6	4	1	205	286	319	605	114	274	27	8	269	64	-12	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.2
2036	29	MLB	SD	58%	302	268	56	10	1	7	25	83	6	5	1	209	291	332	623	123	274	27	8	267	63	-13	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.1
2037	30	MLB	SD	60%	313	278	58	10	1	7	26	87	6	5	1	209	290	327	618	119	272	28	8	265	61	-14	+1	-1	+6	+9	-0.0
2038	31	MLB	SD	62%	311	276	56	10	1	6	26	87	6	4	1	203	286	312	597	109	270	28	8	261	58	-15	+0	-2	+6	+9	-0.2
2039	32	MLB	SD	63%	307	273	54	9	1	6	25	87	6	4	1	198	280	304	584	106	266	28	8	256	54	-16	+0	-2	+5	+9	-0.4
2040	33	MLB	SD	63%	290	258	50	8	1	5	24	84	6	4	1	194	278	291	568	97	262	29	8	249	49	-17	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3770	3361	696	123	13	82	303	1042	77	58	13	207	288	325	612	118	272	28	8	264	60	-169	+6	-9	+67	+107	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	119	21	2	14	52	180	13	10	2	206	285	321	607	116	271	28	8	264	60	-29	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	7046	6272	1309	231	29	154	562	1949	151	105	33	209	289	328	618	120	275	28	8	280	72	-220	+8	-15	+126	+200	10.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	121	21	3	14	52	180	14	10	3	209	290	328	618	119	276	28	8	280	72	-20	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	102	22	3	0	0	19	28	6	1	1	216	370	245	615	29	297	22	15	302	90	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	41	7	0	6	23	30	9	4	0	266	392	429	821	162	294	16	12	372	142	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	3,928	86	59	212	288	333	+70	+36	6.6	5.6
	/162	664	14	10	212	288	333	+11.9	+6.1	1.1	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isaac Ponce (OGILVIE)	19	45	40	45	45	145/248/217	72	217	2	1	34%	8%	38	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	42	41→45	48→40	42	201/285/303	102	283	9	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	214/290/334	120	285	13	5	28%	8%	76	+0.0	213/279/330	117	277	14	2	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→46	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	59	-1.1	225/302/319	94	296	6	8	24%	10%	76	+0.0	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Jordan Groshans 2019 · A	19	45→48	42→45	47→30	41	220/268/324	104	286	10	3	26%	5%	63	-0.9	232/289/338	106	320	9	4	28%	7%	75	-0.0	226/294/308	82	283	7	1	21%	8%	66	-0.5
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Raul Juarez 2017 · A	19	42	41→45	42→40	41	208/273/305	97	268	9	6	25%	5%	61	-1.0	204/257/279	75	279	6	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	180/221/220	41	250	4	2	29%	3%	13	-0.9
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	235/300/339	104	298	6	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Ismerling Mota 2017 · A	19	43	40→45	46→40	41	211/253/301	90	262	8	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	203/254/278	75	282	5	4	28%	5%	44	-2.1	180/231/230	51	220	3	0	19%	5%	20	-0.9
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Seth Conner 2012 · A	20	44	41→40	47→45	47	211/285/309	98	278	8	6	26%	8%	66	-0.6	203/274/278	75	282	5	4	27%	7%	53	-1.5	184/261/241	57	257	3	0	27%	7%	40	-0.7
✕Adinso Reyes 2021 · A	19	46	43→45	41→40	38	224/269/334	110	299	10	5	28%	4%	66	-0.6	178/231/282	104	339	12	4	48%	5%	37	-2.7	146/199/242	96	289	13	2	52%	5%	10	-1.4
✕Geoandry Montilla 2016 · A	20	44	41→45	48→50	41	213/265/307	95	298	8	7	30%	7%	56	-1.3	201/269/302	101	296	8	8	32%	8%	58	-1.2	174/253/276	102	257	8	9	33%	8%	42	-0.7
✕Jose Ovalles 2013 · A	19	40	42→45	45→40	47	199/278/308	110	248	9	5	23%	7%	64	-0.8	215/277/321	106	257	9	5	19%	6%	66	-0.6	219/276/329	110	242	9	3	14%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2016 · A	19	48	37→45	45	42	225/275/299	74	289	4	8	23%	5%	59	-1.1	217/266/307	90	280	7	7	24%	5%	57	-1.2	239/291/347	108	285	8	8	18%	4%	78	+0.1
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	69	-0.4	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	53	-1.5	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	1	-1.4
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2018 · A	19	48	40	49→45	45	232/284/331	99	286	7	5	21%	6%	71	-0.3	212/263/280	68	261	4	4	19%	6%	48	-1.9	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	216/278/319	103	302	7	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	198/267/295	97	299	7	13	33%	8%	55	-1.4	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Cutter Dykstra 2009 · A	20	44→53	42→40	41→55	45	214/279/314	100	286	9	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	208/267/286	78	293	7	14	29%	7%	52	-1.6	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Jorge Quiterio 2014 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	45	212/273/312	100	264	8	8	23%	6%	62	-0.9	185/228/270	85	277	7	9	34%	5%	31	-3.0	142/169/212	69	227	6	11	39%	3%	-12	-1.4