Isaac Ponce

C ACL Padres
Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 192 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1326ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Padres Br…128.216/.370/.2450123—.139/.268/.157
202518ROKDSL Padres Go…187.266/.392/.4296436—.154/.263/.235
202619ROKSD93.221/.355/.4033040—.146/.247/.256
2027PROJMLE20MLBSD203.205/.277/.29733640.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBSD36.206/.279/.30511680.0
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBSD94.209/.283/.31521720.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
ISO78
wRC+40
BB%33
wOBA32
K%31
Chase%18
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsRodolfo Durán (age 20) · Jacob Amaya (age 19) · Eddys Leonard (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .274 / .295
PA51
HR1
K%28
BB%7
ISO93
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.40.40.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M
2036Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-2$0.7M———
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 128102 22300 19286 11 216370245615 29297 2215 302 23 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 187154 41706 23309 40 266392429821 162294 1612 372 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROKACL Padres — 9377 17503 12244 00 221355403757 182280 2613 345 40 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 128108 15200 13356 11 139268157425 19199 2710 202 23 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 187162 25403 15389 40 154263235498 80169 208 221 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEACL Padres — 9382 12302 7354 00 146247256503 110214 388 228 40 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 128108 15200 13356 11 139268157425 19205 2710 202 23 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Padres Brown — 128102 22300 19286 11 216370245615 29297 2215 302 23 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 187162 25403 15389 40 154263235498 80180 208 221 36 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Padres Gold — 187154 41706 23309 40 266392429821 162294 1612 372 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEACL Padres — 9382 12302 7354 00 146247256503 110222 388 228 40 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWACL Padres — 9377 17503 12244 00 221355403757 182280 2613 345 40 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 128108 15200 13356 11 139268157425 19199 2710 202 23 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 187161 25403 15389 40 155263236499 81169 208 221 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEACL Padres — 9382 12302 7354 00 146247256503 110214 388 228 40 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 128108 15200 13356 11 139268157425 19199 2710 202 23 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 187161 25403 15389 40 155263236499 81169 208 221 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEACL Padres — 9382 12302 7354 00 146247256503 110214 388 228 40 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLESD 0% 203182 37613 15574 31 205277297574 93278 287 262 64 -9 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLESD 34% 10594 20312 8292 21 209282310591 101280 288 269 68 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
202922 MLB MLESD 48% 193174 36613 14533 31 213286319605 107282 277 275 72 -6 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.1
203023 MLB MLESD 54% 289260 561025 22785 52 216289327616 112283 278 279 75 -9 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.3
203124 MLB MLESD 55% 366329 721327 28986 62 218291333625 115284 278 283 77 -10 +0 +0 +7 +8 0.5
203225 MLB MLESD 56% 409368 801428 311087 62 220293338631 118285 268 285 79 -10 +0 +0 +7 +9 0.6
203326 MLB MLESD 56% 436393 861529 331157 73 219293337630 118284 268 285 79 -11 +0 +0 +8 +9 0.7
203427 MLB MLESD 55% 445401 871529 341187 73 218292335626 116284 278 283 78 -12 +0 +0 +8 +10 0.6
203528 MLB MLESD 55% 445401 871529 341197 63 216289330619 113283 278 280 76 -13 +0 -1 +8 +10 0.4
203629 MLB MLESD 53% 439395 851528 341197 63 214287323610 110281 278 277 73 -14 +0 -1 +8 +10 0.2
203730 MLB MLESD 53% 430388 821428 331186 53 211283316598 105279 278 272 70 -15 -0 -2 +8 +9 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXSD 34% 3632 7101 3101 10 206279305584 99275 288 266 68 -1 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202922 MLB CTXSD 48% 9485 18302 7262 11 209283315598 106277 287 272 72 -3 -0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
203023 MLB CTXSD 54% 157141 30513 12423 21 212286323609 111278 278 276 75 -5 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.2
203124 MLB CTXSD 55% 203183 39614 15543 31 215288329617 114279 277 280 77 -5 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.3
203225 MLB CTXSD 56% 229205 44715 18614 41 216290333623 117280 278 282 79 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203326 MLB CTXSD 56% 245220 47815 19654 41 216290333623 117279 278 282 79 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203427 MLB CTXSD 55% 246221 47815 19654 42 215289330619 115279 268 280 78 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203528 MLB CTXSD 55% 244219 47815 19654 32 213287326612 112278 278 278 76 -7 -0 -0 +4 +5 0.2
203629 MLB CTXSD 53% 235211 44714 18644 32 211284319603 108276 278 274 73 -7 -0 -1 +4 +5 0.1
203730 MLB CTXSD 53% 226204 42714 17623 32 208280311591 104274 278 269 70 -8 -0 -1 +4 +5 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19151721 36560838 14751432 2813 212286322609 110278 278 277 71 -55 +0 -2 +34 +41 1.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 12420313 5017411 104 212287324610 111278 278 277 71 -19 +0 -1 +12 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 40163601 7531311874 310107777 5924 209286317603 108275 278 273 71 -106 +2 -4 +64 +78 3.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 12221312 5017412 104 209285317603 108275 278 273 71 -19 +0 -1 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Padres · 93 PAwOBA .333 → .228 (−105)K% 25.8% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.81%÷1.000×1.440——37.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.83%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9957.30%
HBP% /PA4.30%—×0.720—×0.9953.08%
Singles /BIP16.98%÷1.000×0.820×0.990×0.99513.72%
Doubles /BIP9.43%÷1.000×0.720×0.990×0.9956.69%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.990×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP5.66%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9954.39%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .333 → .228; ISO .182 → .126; BABIP .280 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 187 PAwOBA .364 → .221 (−143)K% 16.0% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.04%÷0.970×1.220——20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.30%÷1.049×0.700—×0.9958.16%
HBP% /PA4.81%—×0.700—×0.9953.35%
Singles /BIP22.58%÷1.064×0.680×0.964×0.99513.85%
Doubles /BIP5.65%÷1.159×0.600×0.964×0.9952.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.049×0.600×0.964×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP4.84%÷0.956×0.470—×0.9952.37%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 113, 2B 132, 3B 110, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .364 → .221; ISO .162 → .082; BABIP .294 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Padres Brown · 128 PAwOBA .296 → .202 (−94)K% 21.9% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.88%÷0.974×1.220——27.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.84%÷1.036×0.700—×1.00810.10%
HBP% /PA4.69%—×0.700—×1.0083.31%
Singles /BIP25.68%÷1.000×0.680×0.994×1.00817.49%
Doubles /BIP4.05%÷1.015×0.600×0.994×1.0082.40%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.600×0.994×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.908×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 95, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .296 → .202; ISO .029 → .018; BABIP .297 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).