Luis Verdugo
3B San Antonio Missions| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 581 | .260/.322/.347 | 5 | 7 | 66 | — | .225/.272/.287 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 570 | .224/.310/.367 | 14 | 5 | 76 | — | .161/.223/.233 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 447 | .251/.356/.388 | 13 | 6 | 75 | — | .209/.279/.301 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBSD | 3 | .197/.259/.282 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBSD | 60 | .198/.261/.285 | 1 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 199 | 176 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 193 | 268 | 295 | 563 | 102 | 231 | 23 | 9 | 253 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 221 | 197 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 39 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 305 | 372 | 447 | 818 | 142 | 353 | 18 | 9 | 361 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 19 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 15 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 133 | 133 | 267 | 222 | 40 | 0 | 121 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 227 | 214 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 230 | 294 | 524 | 107 | 252 | 29 | 5 | 235 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 422 | 368 | 99 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 269 | 355 | 389 | 744 | 120 | 316 | 17 | 11 | 333 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 64 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 177 | 140 | 318 | 35 | 200 | 44 | 6 | 152 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 244 | 218 | 59 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 340 | 454 | 794 | 183 | 292 | 15 | 9 | 348 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 125 | 114 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 290 | 333 | 624 | 105 | 286 | 22 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 447 | 405 | 104 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 74 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 317 | 328 | 646 | 72 | 304 | 17 | 8 | 292 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 134 | 119 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 269 | 336 | 412 | 748 | 143 | 319 | 19 | 9 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 109 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 234 | 260 | 494 | 80 | 254 | 32 | 6 | 223 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 170 | 147 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 177 | 275 | 293 | 568 | 116 | 232 | 28 | 11 | 260 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Mexico Verde | — | 291 | 252 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 61 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 359 | 452 | 811 | 183 | 322 | 21 | 12 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 394 | 335 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 98 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 248 | 342 | 367 | 709 | 119 | 313 | 25 | 11 | 315 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 53 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 282 | 462 | 564 | 1.026 | 282 | 296 | 19 | 23 | 441 | 184 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 199 | 182 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 148 | 201 | 225 | 426 | 77 | 190 | 33 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 221 | 205 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 261 | 312 | 574 | 98 | 268 | 25 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 227 | 217 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 177 | 221 | 398 | 78 | 228 | 41 | 4 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 422 | 381 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 228 | 295 | 323 | 618 | 94 | 279 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 64 | 58 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 138 | 299 | 34 | 190 | 53 | 5 | 122 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 244 | 226 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 47 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 261 | 336 | 598 | 124 | 236 | 19 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 447 | 414 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 93 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 272 | 287 | 560 | 63 | 272 | 21 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 109 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 206 | 216 | 421 | 49 | 251 | 39 | 5 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 170 | 152 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 158 | 234 | 243 | 477 | 86 | 219 | 33 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 394 | 349 | 73 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 119 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 209 | 279 | 301 | 580 | 92 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 199 | 182 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 148 | 201 | 225 | 426 | 77 | 205 | 33 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 199 | 176 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 193 | 268 | 295 | 563 | 102 | 231 | 23 | 9 | 253 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 221 | 205 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 261 | 312 | 574 | 98 | 270 | 25 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 221 | 197 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 39 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 305 | 372 | 447 | 818 | 142 | 353 | 18 | 9 | 361 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 19 | INTL MLE | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 15 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 133 | 133 | 267 | 222 | 40 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2020 | 19 | INTL RAW | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 15 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 133 | 133 | 267 | 222 | 40 | 0 | 121 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 227 | 217 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 177 | 221 | 398 | 78 | 234 | 41 | 4 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 227 | 214 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 230 | 294 | 524 | 107 | 252 | 29 | 5 | 235 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 422 | 381 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 228 | 295 | 323 | 618 | 94 | 284 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 422 | 368 | 99 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 269 | 355 | 389 | 744 | 120 | 316 | 17 | 11 | 333 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 433 | 400 | 75 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 114 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 188 | 239 | 292 | 531 | 105 | 240 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 433 | 389 | 91 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 92 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 234 | 302 | 373 | 675 | 139 | 281 | 21 | 8 | 300 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 581 | 538 | 119 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 120 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 221 | 267 | 279 | 546 | 58 | 277 | 21 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 581 | 524 | 136 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 100 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 260 | 322 | 347 | 669 | 88 | 308 | 17 | 8 | 300 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 522 | 83 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 201 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 159 | 217 | 238 | 455 | 79 | 237 | 35 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 570 | 499 | 112 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 143 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 224 | 310 | 367 | 677 | 142 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 302 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 396 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 135 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 280 | 301 | 581 | 91 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 447 | 374 | 94 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 108 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 356 | 388 | 744 | 136 | 312 | 24 | 13 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 199 | 185 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 146 | 201 | 222 | 423 | 76 | 190 | 33 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 221 | 206 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 214 | 261 | 311 | 572 | 97 | 268 | 25 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 227 | 216 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 177 | 222 | 399 | 79 | 228 | 41 | 4 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 422 | 383 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 227 | 295 | 321 | 616 | 94 | 279 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 433 | 403 | 75 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 114 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 186 | 239 | 290 | 529 | 104 | 226 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 581 | 542 | 119 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 120 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 267 | 277 | 544 | 57 | 272 | 21 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 526 | 83 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 201 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 158 | 217 | 236 | 453 | 78 | 232 | 35 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 405 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 135 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 280 | 294 | 574 | 89 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 581 | 542 | 119 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 120 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 267 | 277 | 544 | 57 | 272 | 21 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 526 | 83 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 201 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 158 | 217 | 236 | 453 | 78 | 232 | 35 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 405 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 135 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 280 | 294 | 574 | 89 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 2% | 380 | 348 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 109 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 262 | 286 | 548 | 86 | 269 | 29 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 259 | 282 | 541 | 85 | 264 | 33 | 0 | 247 | 55 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 27% | 225 | 206 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 64 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 264 | 289 | 553 | 88 | 270 | 28 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 27% | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 261 | 285 | 546 | 88 | 265 | 28 | 7 | 249 | 57 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 250 | 286 | 536 | 89 | 263 | 28 | 7 | 249 | 44 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 184 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 198 | 251 | 288 | 539 | 91 | 265 | 28 | 7 | 249 | 44 | -34 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3495 | 3204 | 621 | 122 | 5 | 45 | 217 | 986 | 21 | 44 | 24 | 194 | 250 | 277 | 527 | 83 | 261 | 28 | 6 | 233 | 44 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 116 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 183 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 250 | 277 | 527 | 82 | 263 | 28 | 6 | 233 | 44 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 394 PAwOBA .312 → .257 (−55)K% 24.9% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.87% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 23.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .312 → .257; ISO .119 → .097; BABIP .313 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 170 PAwOBA .256 → .214 (−42)K% 27.6% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.65% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.59% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 14.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .256 → .214; ISO .116 → .092; BABIP .232 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 109 PAwOBA .217 → .185 (−32)K% 32.1% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.11% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.42% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 2.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .217 → .185; ISO .080 → .061; BABIP .254 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 447 PAwOBA .288 → .246 (−42)K% 16.6% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.55% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.61% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .288 → .246; ISO .072 → .062; BABIP .304 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 244 PAwOBA .341 → .257 (−84)K% 14.8% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.75% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.02% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.13% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 16.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.44% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.56% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .341 → .257; ISO .183 → .124; BABIP .292 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 64 PAwOBA .151 → .122 (−29)K% 43.8% → 53.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 52.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 13.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .151 → .122; ISO .035 → .029; BABIP .200 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 422 PAwOBA .328 → .275 (−53)K% 16.6% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.59% | ÷1.003 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.90% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 20.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.097 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .328 → .275; ISO .120 → .098; BABIP .316 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 227 PAwOBA .230 → .174 (−56)K% 28.6% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.63% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.85% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.11% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 14.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.01% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.67% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .230 → .174; ISO .107 → .080; BABIP .252 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .