Barrett Kleinknecht
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 25 | AAMississippi B… | 268 | .238/.298/.379 | 8 | 0 | 55 | — | .213/.256/.336 |
| 2014 | 26 | AA/A+2 orgs | 334 | .270/.319/.441 | 9 | 2 | 71 | — | .224/.264/.375 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 344 | .202/.244/.278 | 4 | 0 | 17 | — | .176/.208/.235 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 263 | 501 | 105 | 167 | 5 | 5 | 234 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 229 | 219 | 66 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 301 | 326 | 447 | 773 | 146 | 319 | 11 | 2 | 340 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 318 | 282 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 56 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 267 | 330 | 597 | 121 | 232 | 18 | 5 | 260 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | — | 121 | 114 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 292 | 430 | 721 | 175 | 266 | 13 | 3 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 149 | 128 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 219 | 306 | 305 | 610 | 86 | 259 | 15 | 9 | 273 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 268 | 235 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 379 | 677 | 140 | 254 | 16 | 7 | 292 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 319 | 293 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 280 | 322 | 457 | 779 | 177 | 307 | 16 | 5 | 335 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 15 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 267 | 27 | 20 | 189 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | — | 307 | 282 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 237 | 270 | 507 | 74 | 216 | 14 | 5 | 225 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 297 | 343 | 640 | 86 | 321 | 19 | 3 | 290 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 263 | 501 | 105 | 145 | 5 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 229 | 221 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 226 | 247 | 335 | 582 | 109 | 244 | 15 | 1 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 318 | 290 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 79 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 176 | 221 | 262 | 484 | 86 | 204 | 25 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 121 | 115 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 250 | 383 | 633 | 165 | 223 | 18 | 2 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 149 | 133 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 188 | 250 | 263 | 513 | 75 | 228 | 19 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 268 | 244 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 256 | 336 | 592 | 123 | 226 | 20 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 319 | 298 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 235 | 267 | 393 | 659 | 158 | 258 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 15 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 40 | 13 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Braves | — | 307 | 288 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 170 | 201 | 226 | 426 | 56 | 193 | 18 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 270 | 314 | 585 | 86 | 292 | 22 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 240 | 52 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 217 | 242 | 321 | 563 | 104 | 239 | 15 | 2 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 250 | 238 | 69 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 290 | 319 | 433 | 751 | 143 | 306 | 10 | 2 | 331 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 406 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 101 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 185 | 225 | 291 | 515 | 106 | 219 | 23 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 396 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 72 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 222 | 274 | 359 | 633 | 136 | 242 | 16 | 5 | 276 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 149 | 133 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 188 | 250 | 263 | 513 | 75 | 234 | 19 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 149 | 128 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 219 | 306 | 305 | 610 | 86 | 259 | 15 | 9 | 273 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 268 | 244 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 256 | 336 | 592 | 123 | 239 | 20 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 268 | 235 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 379 | 677 | 140 | 254 | 16 | 7 | 292 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 310 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 226 | 264 | 377 | 641 | 152 | 258 | 21 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 334 | 304 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 270 | 319 | 441 | 760 | 171 | 298 | 16 | 5 | 328 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 323 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 176 | 208 | 235 | 444 | 59 | 209 | 19 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 344 | 317 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 244 | 278 | 522 | 76 | 227 | 15 | 4 | 232 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 240 | 52 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 217 | 242 | 321 | 563 | 104 | 236 | 15 | 2 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 415 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 101 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 181 | 225 | 284 | 509 | 104 | 209 | 23 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 149 | 137 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 182 | 250 | 255 | 505 | 73 | 228 | 19 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 268 | 252 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 256 | 325 | 581 | 119 | 226 | 20 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 315 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 222 | 264 | 371 | 635 | 149 | 246 | 21 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 328 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 208 | 232 | 440 | 58 | 204 | 19 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1784 | 1656 | 331 | 72 | 3 | 32 | 59 | 355 | 24 | 21 | 14 | 200 | 238 | 305 | 543 | 105 | 232 | 20 | 3 | 233 | 44 | -119 | -1 | +0 | +6 | +39 | -7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 121 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 129 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 201 | 238 | 307 | 545 | 106 | 232 | 20 | 3 | 233 | 44 | -43 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAGwinnett Braves · 307 PAwOBA .221 → .188 (−32)K% 14.3% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.33% | ÷0.940 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.56% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 16.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.78% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.014 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 88, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .221 → .188; ISO .074 → .062; BABIP .216 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 37 PAwOBA .282 → .245 (−36)K% 18.9% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.70% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 1.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 10.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .282 → .245; ISO .086 → .080; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMississippi Braves · 319 PAwOBA .331 → .280 (−50)K% 16.0% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.99% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.70% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.07% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷1.015 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.004 | ×0.880 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷0.813 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.62% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .331 → .280; ISO .177 → .162; BABIP .307 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 15 PAwOBA .186 → .129 (−57)K% 26.7% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 12.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 5.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.139 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .186 → .129; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMississippi Braves · 268 PAwOBA .290 → .249 (−41)K% 16.0% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.04% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.72% | ÷1.089 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.921 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .290 → .249; ISO .140 → .123; BABIP .254 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMississippi Braves · 149 PAwOBA .272 → .229 (−43)K% 15.4% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.44% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.40% | ÷1.114 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.19% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 13.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.48% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 9.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 93, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .272 → .229; ISO .086 → .081; BABIP .259 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 318 PAwOBA .257 → .209 (−48)K% 17.6% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.61% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.35% | ÷0.988 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 3.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.26% | ÷0.981 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 16.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.166 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .257 → .209; ISO .121 → .091; BABIP .232 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ARome Braves · 121 PAwOBA .307 → .253 (−54)K% 13.2% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.22% | ÷0.978 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.31% | ÷1.026 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 2.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 15.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.969 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.831 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .307 → .253; ISO .175 → .153; BABIP .266 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).