Ricardo Paez

OF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 20 L/L 5'10" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKMIN121.263/.392/.4242442—.152/.258/.238
202518ROKMIN124.242/.405/.29501344—.167/.298/.206
202619A/ROKMIN132.202/.336/.3212737—.155/.252/.249
2027PROJMLE20MLBMIN242.190/.273/.2763558-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBMIN48.196/.279/.2921164-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%76
Chase%62
Speed51
Z-Con%48
Whiff%47
K%32
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsYohairo Cuevas (age 20) · Jaden Rudd (age 20) · Jefry Puente (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj PA
wRC+†58
AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .271 / .274
PA79
HR1
K%29
BB%9
ISO86
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 26 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT26
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE63
scouting grade only
SPEED61
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Twins — 12199 26432 20261 44 263392424816 162333 2117 365 42 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Twins — 12495 23310 19307 133 242405295700 53343 2415 331 44 — — — — — —
202619 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 9377 16301 15270 30 208337286623 78300 2916 293 37 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Twins — 3932 6211 790 40 188333406740 219227 2318 332 36 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 121105 16221 14321 44 152258238496 86202 2612 230 42 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 124102 17210 12437 133 167298206503 39262 3510 233 44 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 9381 13201 11370 30 160261222483 62267 4012 223 37 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 3935 5111 4130 40 143231314545 171172 3310 222 36 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 121105 16221 14321 44 152258238496 86205 2612 230 42 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Twins — 12199 26432 20261 44 263392424816 162333 2117 365 42 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 124102 17210 12437 133 167298206503 39279 3510 233 44 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 12495 23310 19307 133 242405295700 53343 2415 331 44 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 132116 19412 15500 70 164260267527 103262 3811 223 37 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 132109 22512 22360 70 202336321657 119278 2717 305 37 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 121105 16221 14321 44 152258238496 86202 2612 230 42 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 124104 17210 12437 133 163298202499 38262 3510 233 44 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 132116 19412 15500 70 164260267527 103239 3811 223 37 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 121105 16221 14321 44 152258238496 86202 2612 230 42 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 124104 17210 12437 133 163298202499 38262 3510 233 44 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 132116 19412 15500 70 164260267527 103239 3811 223 37 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEMIN 0% 242215 41723 22703 51 190273276550 86265 299 254 58 -12 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEMIN 34% 140124 24412 13402 31 196279292571 96267 299 262 64 -6 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.4
202821 MLB CTXMIN 34% 4843 8101 4141 10 196279292571 96267 298 262 64 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4843 8101 4141 10 186271279550 93250 298 262 48 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 10914014 5419014 140 187272284556 96251 298 262 48 -28 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.6
Career— MLE — 596518 901466 6118811 298 174275259533 85255 3210 240 48 -10 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650565 991577 6720512 329 175276264540 88257 3210 240 48 -30 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 93 PAwOBA .290 → .223 (−66)K% 29.0% → 39.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.03%÷1.000×1.360——39.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.13%÷1.000×0.690—×1.04511.63%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0450.00%
Singles /BIP24.00%÷1.000×0.920×0.950×1.04521.92%
Doubles /BIP6.00%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0454.94%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×0.950×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP2.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0451.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .223; ISO .078 → .059; BABIP .300 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 39 PAwOBA .324 → .222 (−103)K% 23.1% → 33.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷1.000×1.440——33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.95%÷1.000×0.620—×1.00811.21%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP8.70%÷1.000×0.820—×1.0087.18%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0086.31%
Triples /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0083.15%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0083.42%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .324 → .222; ISO .219 → .155; BABIP .227 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 124 PAwOBA .329 → .233 (−96)K% 24.2% → 34.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.19%÷0.998×1.440——34.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.32%÷0.981×0.620—×1.0229.90%
HBP% /PA5.65%—×0.720—×1.0224.16%
Singles /BIP29.23%÷1.028×0.820×0.950×1.02222.64%
Doubles /BIP4.62%÷0.979×0.720×0.950×1.0223.30%
Triples /BIP1.54%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0221.08%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.006×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .233; ISO .053 → .036; BABIP .343 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Twins · 121 PAwOBA .360 → .230 (−130)K% 21.5% → 26.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.49%÷1.000×1.220——26.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.53%÷1.010×0.700—×1.02211.72%
HBP% /PA0.83%—×0.700—×1.0220.59%
Singles /BIP23.29%÷1.038×0.680×0.954×1.02214.88%
Doubles /BIP5.48%÷1.006×0.600×0.954×1.0223.19%
Triples /BIP4.11%÷1.115×0.600×0.954×1.0222.16%
Home runs /BIP2.74%÷0.939×0.470—×1.0221.40%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 123, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .360 → .230; ISO .162 → .088; BABIP .333 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).