Nestor Urbina

2B DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 20 S/R 5'10" / 168 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKMIN	132	.243/.364/.351	1	9	32	—	.154/.250/.222
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	116	.272/.348/.437	1	2	39	—	.170/.235/.245
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBMIN	226	.212/.276/.301	2	6	64	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBMIN	41	.216/.282/.316	0	1	69	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBMIN	128	.220/.286/.329	2	4	74	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

ISO83

Speed74

K%67

Whiff%63

Z-Con%61

wOBA60

CompsBrainer Bonaci (age 20) · Allan Castro (age 20) · Angel Martínez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .274 / .298

PA63

HR0

K%26

BB%7

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	117	18	3	1	1	13	35	2	9	3	154	250	222	472	68	211	27	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	106	18	6	1	0	7	26	2	2	0	170	235	245	480	75	222	22	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	117	18	3	1	1	13	35	2	9	3	154	250	222	472	68	210	27	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	106	18	6	1	0	7	26	2	2	0	170	235	245	480	75	222	22	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	116	18	3	1	1	13	35	2	9	3	155	250	224	474	69	211	27	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	106	18	6	1	0	7	26	2	2	0	170	235	245	480	75	222	22	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	116	18	3	1	1	13	35	2	9	3	155	250	224	474	69	211	27	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	106	18	6	1	0	7	26	2	2	0	170	235	245	480	75	222	22	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	226	206	44	9	2	2	16	60	2	6	1	212	276	301	577	89	286	27	7	262	64	-10	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	119	108	23	5	1	1	9	31	1	3	1	216	282	315	597	99	287	26	8	270	69	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	264	240	52	10	2	4	19	68	3	8	2	220	286	328	615	108	289	26	7	277	74	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	368	334	74	14	3	6	27	94	4	11	3	223	290	339	629	116	290	26	7	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	439	398	90	17	4	8	33	111	5	13	3	226	293	348	641	122	291	25	8	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	481	437	99	19	4	9	36	121	5	14	4	228	295	355	650	127	291	25	7	292	83	-9	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	506	458	104	20	4	10	38	127	5	15	4	229	296	358	654	129	291	25	8	293	84	-9	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	517	468	105	20	4	10	39	130	5	15	4	227	295	355	650	128	290	25	8	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	59%	520	471	106	20	4	10	39	132	5	14	4	226	293	350	643	125	289	25	8	288	81	-12	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	515	466	104	20	4	9	39	133	5	14	4	223	290	344	634	121	288	26	8	285	79	-13	+1	-1	+2	+11	-0.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	59%	507	459	101	19	4	9	38	132	5	14	4	220	286	336	622	116	286	26	7	280	76	-15	+1	-2	+2	+11	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	41	38	8	2	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	216	282	316	598	99	288	27	7	271	69	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	128	117	26	5	1	2	9	33	1	4	1	220	286	329	615	108	289	26	7	277	74	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	200	181	41	8	2	3	15	51	2	6	1	223	290	339	629	116	290	26	8	283	78	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	243	220	50	10	2	4	18	61	3	7	2	226	293	348	642	122	291	25	7	288	81	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	269	244	55	11	2	5	20	67	3	8	2	228	296	355	651	127	291	25	7	292	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	285	258	59	11	2	6	22	72	3	8	2	229	296	358	654	129	291	25	8	293	84	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	286	259	59	11	2	6	22	72	3	8	2	228	295	356	650	128	291	25	8	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	59%	307	278	63	12	3	6	23	78	3	9	2	226	293	351	644	125	290	25	7	289	81	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	288	261	58	11	2	5	22	74	3	8	2	223	290	345	634	121	288	26	8	285	79	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	59%	298	271	59	11	2	5	22	78	3	8	2	220	286	337	623	117	286	26	7	280	76	-9	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2345	2127	478	92	18	42	176	597	24	67	16	225	291	344	636	119	291	25	8	287	77	-55	+7	-2	+8	+51	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	133	26	5	12	49	165	7	19	4	225	293	347	640	122	291	25	8	287	77	-15	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4547	4119	906	175	37	77	342	1157	48	134	36	220	287	336	624	117	285	25	8	283	77	-103	+11	-4	+15	+93	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	129	25	5	11	49	165	7	19	5	219	287	334	621	115	284	25	8	283	77	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Sam Bohne'16-'26 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,593 PA	3.9	2,593	16	75	230*	300*	367*	+13	+3	2.8	2.8
/162	664	4	19	+3.4	+0.8	0.7	pk7: 3
#4Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Jimmy Burke'01-'05 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,093 PA	3.2	2,093	1	86	236*	296*	348*	+7	+4	2.7	2.7
/162	664	0	27	+2.3	+1.4	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,407	43	68	226	289	347	+9	+6	2.3	2.3
/162	664	12	19	+2.4	+1.7	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Urbina (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	210/274/298	88	286	0	2	26%	7%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→50	41→50	50	45	204/264/307	103	268	7	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	231/294/358	127	293	12	10	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	42	193/245/268	75	263	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	238/286/328	90	316	8	10	26%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	40→47	38→45	50	46	194/262/268	74	258	6	14	26%	8%	52	-2.2	208/274/317	109	299	10	11	32%	7%	68	-1.0	220/298/324	104	305	10	11	29%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	41→51	40→45	55	44	198/266/291	93	280	8	16	30%	8%	59	-1.7	243/305/349	106	326	7	24	25%	8%	86	+0.3	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	38→47	35→40	52→60	47	181/251/244	63	237	2	17	23%	8%	42	-2.9	216/281/305	89	285	5	23	24%	7%	68	-1.0	218/285/304	87	285	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Jean Batista 2012 · A	20	42	40→55	50→45	36	208/237/299	91	278	6	8	28%	4%	48	-2.5	217/242/336	119	280	10	7	26%	3%	59	-1.7	220/234/364	144	272	12	6	24%	1%	61	-0.4
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	46→52	38→45	55	45	218/283/303	84	283	5	18	24%	6%	68	-1.0	233/297/347	114	294	9	19	23%	7%	83	+0.1	234/307/360	127	282	11	18	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→50	39→45	48→50	50	203/281/298	95	268	5	9	24%	9%	66	-1.1	222/309/292	70	291	3	10	22%	11%	75	-0.5	247/316/346	99	293	8	16	17%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Noah Miller 2023 · A	20	40→47	37→40	51→50	48	188/276/257	69	287	4	13	33%	10%	55	-1.9	205/266/280	75	274	6	8	25%	8%	56	-1.9	224/272/309	85	279	7	4	21%	6%	63	-1.2
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Michael Beltre 2015 · A	20	40→50	35→45	50→60	43	187/269/245	58	279	2	12	31%	8%	51	-2.3	200/263/276	76	291	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	224/296/341	118	306	9	22	28%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	39→49	37→50	48→40	43	188/248/260	72	247	3	6	24%	6%	45	-2.7	199/247/278	79	252	4	5	22%	5%	48	-2.5	272/289/402	130	307	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	42→47	36→45	46→55	44	199/262/261	62	279	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	203/271/281	78	291	6	12	30%	8%	58	-1.7	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Jeison Guzmán 2019 · A	20	42→43	37→45	53→50	41	199/250/268	69	276	4	14	28%	6%	47	-2.6	210/250/303	93	285	7	12	28%	4%	55	-2.0	202/251/311	109	284	10	10	31%	5%	54	-1.2
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	217/271/293	76	299	5	21	28%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/264	57	287	2	13	26%	7%	53	-2.1	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7

Nestor Urbina

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps